The Freewheeling Diplomat

Romania plays an often under-appreciated role as a bulwark for NATO on its eastern flank. I spoke with Black Sea security expert and George Washington University Professor Iulia Joja on June 14 about Romania's security challenges amid Russia's war on neighboring Ukraine. Among the topics covered were: traditional Romanian attitudes toward Russia; issues in Romanian-Ukrainian bilateral relations; the changing NATO and US military presence in Romania; the threat to Moldova from Russia; the centrality of Crimea to the future security of Ukraine; the "Bucharest 9"; and the outlook at the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius for signals on future Ukrainian membership in NATO.

You would not know if from the onslaught of nuclear weapons threats from Russian TV propagandists and political figures, but there is a 1973 Treaty between the USSR and the United States -- still in effect with Russia -- under which both sides agree to refrain from the use of nuclear weapons threats. I spoke with Tom Countryman, Board Chair of the Arms Control Association, about how to understand and confront Russia's barrage of threats. Tom knows of what he speaks. His 35-year career in the Foreign Service culminated in positions as Assistant Secretary and Acting Undersecretary of State for International Security and Nonproliferation.
Topics included: The positions of China, India and the Global South on Russian nuclear threats; the possibilities for continued arms control with Russia despite its aggression and past treaty violations; the extreme danger of supposed limited nuclear weapons use leading to a strategic nuclear exchange; and the role of the Arms Control Association in advocating for a world without nuclear weapons.

President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador has declared an unprecedented and controversial war on the country's gangs. Under a "State of Exception" in effect since March 2022, over 60,000 suspected gang members have been arrested. Some human rights groups warn that the round up is coming at the expense of proper due process. Bukele's supporters note a dramatic drop in the murder rate and the return of the rule of law on the streets. Bukele's approval rating is over 80 percent. Bukele's experiment is being watched closely in the region, where others are also at the mercy of gangs and cartels.
I spoke about Bukele and his anti-gang efforts with El Salvador native and elections expert Mario Velasquez. Mario has been tracking politics in El Salvador since the 1970s. From 1985-95 he was Executive Director of MAES - Medical Aid for El Salvador. He was at one time affiliated with the leftist FMLN party.

How is Russia's information war against Ukraine going? What are the main propaganda and disinformation narratives Russia is pushing -- and are they working? What is happening in cyber space? We explore these and other topics with Gavin Wilde, Senior Fellow in the Technology and International Affairs program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Gavin is a noted Russia expert with broad experience in and out of government, including as a Director for Russia at the National Security Council. We spoke on March 16. Gavin had recently returned from a trip to Ukraine.

We review what Russia's war on Ukraine has meant for Central Europe with Matt Boyse, who served as U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State responsible for coordinating policy toward Central Europe from 2018-2021. Poland has emerged as a clear leader in the wake of the invasion, but we examine how the rest of the region, with the exception of Hungary, has risen to the challenge as well. Putin's aggression has vindicated the warnings Poland and others in Central Europe have been making for decades - often to the chagrin of their Western partners - about the threat of resurgent Russian imperialism. We will discuss how regional fora, such as the Bucharest-9, can enhance coordination and forge a bulwark in Europe's east - from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea - against further Russian encroachments.