The Freewheeling Diplomat

Romania plays an often under-appreciated role as a bulwark for NATO on its eastern flank. I spoke with Black Sea security expert and George Washington University Professor Iulia Joja on June 14 about Romania's security challenges amid Russia's war on neighboring Ukraine. Among the topics covered were: traditional Romanian attitudes toward Russia; issues in Romanian-Ukrainian bilateral relations; the changing NATO and US military presence in Romania; the threat to Moldova from Russia; the centrality of Crimea to the future security of Ukraine; the "Bucharest 9"; and the outlook at the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius for signals on future Ukrainian membership in NATO.

How is Russia's information war against Ukraine going? What are the main propaganda and disinformation narratives Russia is pushing -- and are they working? What is happening in cyber space? We explore these and other topics with Gavin Wilde, Senior Fellow in the Technology and International Affairs program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Gavin is a noted Russia expert with broad experience in and out of government, including as a Director for Russia at the National Security Council. We spoke on March 16. Gavin had recently returned from a trip to Ukraine.

I spoke with Mike Purcell who had decades of experience as a Russia watcher for the U.S. Marines. Mike, now retired and teaching at GW University, brings unique operational, strategic and area expertise to the analysis of Russian military performance. He led a combined armed force of 800 marines and 200 vehicles during the 2003 invasion of Iraq. He was later a Foreign Area Officer in Russia and a Liaison at the UN Observer Mission in Tbilisi, Georgia. Mike was also Director for Strategic Planning for Marine Forces Europe at EUCOM. We discussed the brutal culture of the Russian military, including the tradition of widespread hazing. Mike provided historical context to Russia's use of proxy forces, such as the Wagner Group and Chechen militias. We also reviewed the state of play in Kherson and Bakhmut. Mike cautioned that the Russian military can -- and does -- learn from failure. Optimism about the poor performance of Russian forces to date should thus not breed overconfidence.

I spoke with Mykola Vorobiov, journalist and political-military analyst based in Kyiv. Mykola has devoted the past eight years to analyzing and writing about Russia's war on Ukraine, including covering the front in Donbas.
Mykola evaluates prospects for Ukraine's much anticipated counter-offensive in the key Kherson region in the South. He examines the composition and morale of Russian forces. He also reviews the political and economic affects of the war on Ukraine - and the solidity of U.S and European support.
Mykola is realistic: he underlines that Ukrainians understand that the war will not be over soon. But he makes a compelling case for why Ukraine will prevail.

China has been cagey in its support for Russia since the February invasion of Ukraine. On one hand, China echoes Russia’s propaganda line and has ramped up purchases of Russian oil, giving the Putin regime a lifeline.
On the other hand, China has not sent military supplies to Russia. Chinese companies have actually decreased exports to Russia in recent months out of fear of sanctions. And China has not recognized the “independence” of the self-declared Russian puppet statelets in the Donbas region.

Putin’s deeply misguided and brutal aggression in Ukraine -- and the fact that the war is now nearing the end of its fifth month with no end in sight -- should give China pause.

President Xi declared a “partnership without limits” with Putin in February. But – given Putin’s brutality and ineptitude – is this “partnership without limits” still in China’s interest? Or might Xi and the Chinese elite – for their own reasons – be persuaded to back away from a damaged Putin?

Perhaps a few key adjustments in U.S. diplomacy might help shift China's calculus on Russia's war in Ukraine in a more positive direction.