The View From Kyiv: How Ukraine Will Prevail in Putin's War

07/30/22 • 45 min

I spoke with Mykola Vorobiov, journalist and political-military analyst based in Kyiv. Mykola has devoted the past eight years to analyzing and writing about Russia's war on Ukraine, including covering the front in Donbas.
Mykola evaluates prospects for Ukraine's much anticipated counter-offensive in the key Kherson region in the South. He examines the composition and morale of Russian forces. He also reviews the political and economic affects of the war on Ukraine - and the solidity of U.S and European support.
Mykola is realistic: he underlines that Ukrainians understand that the war will not be over soon. But he makes a compelling case for why Ukraine will prevail.

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Can the U.S. Shift China's Calculus on Russia's War in Ukraine?

China has been cagey in its support for Russia since the February invasion of Ukraine. On one hand, China echoes Russia’s propaganda line and has ramped up purchases of Russian oil, giving the Putin regime a lifeline.
On the other hand, China has not sent military supplies to Russia. Chinese companies have actually decreased exports to Russia in recent months out of fear of sanctions. And China has not recognized the “independence” of the self-declared Russian puppet statelets in the Donbas region.

Putin’s deeply misguided and brutal aggression in Ukraine -- and the fact that the war is now nearing the end of its fifth month with no end in sight -- should give China pause.

President Xi declared a “partnership without limits” with Putin in February. But – given Putin’s brutality and ineptitude – is this “partnership without limits” still in China’s interest? Or might Xi and the Chinese elite – for their own reasons – be persuaded to back away from a damaged Putin?

Perhaps a few key adjustments in U.S. diplomacy might help shift China's calculus on Russia's war in Ukraine in a more positive direction.

Next Episode

The Energy Diplomacy We Need to Win the Long Game with Russia

I spoke with my former State Department colleague Ben Schmitt on August 12 about energy sanctions against Russia. We reviewed how Germany had willfully made itself more dependent on Russian energy through a misguided policy of "change through trade." We discussed the outlook for Europe's efforts to rapidly wean itself off Russian oil and gas. While in the near term, Russia is finding alternative markets for its oil in China and India, medium and longer term trends resulting from energy sanctions spell peril for the Russian oil and gas industry.