Will Putin Use Nukes in Ukraine?

07/04/22 • 17 min

Putin's war against Ukraine is already a nuclear war. Although he has not pushed the nuclear button, Putin and his propagandists have used Russia's nuclear arsenal extensively to try to intimidate Ukraine and -- in particular -- the West. Threats of nuclear war have been fast and furious, with Russian TV commentators expressing outright glee at the prospect of nuclear annihilation of the UK, the US and other Western targets. The Putin regime has discarded limits that even the USSR had in place on the inadvisability of nuclear threats. If Putin's nuclear threats succeed in Ukraine, we can expect him deploy such terror tactics against his next target. Western leaders must tred carefully, but not succumb to Putin's nuclear blackmail.

Previous Episode

Ineptitude: Putin's History of Screwing Himself on Ukraine

Putin's history of getting Ukraine wrong did not begin will his brutal and bungled invasion in February 2022. In fact, Putin himself prompted the overthrow of the Russia-friendly, NATO-neutral, corrupt Ukrainian Administration of Victor Yanukovych in 2014. This episode explores Putin's repeated ineptitude in his dealings with Ukraine -- from the Orange Revolution of 2004 to the Maidan Revolution of 2014 to the present war.

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Can the U.S. Shift China's Calculus on Russia's War in Ukraine?

China has been cagey in its support for Russia since the February invasion of Ukraine. On one hand, China echoes Russia’s propaganda line and has ramped up purchases of Russian oil, giving the Putin regime a lifeline.
On the other hand, China has not sent military supplies to Russia. Chinese companies have actually decreased exports to Russia in recent months out of fear of sanctions. And China has not recognized the “independence” of the self-declared Russian puppet statelets in the Donbas region.

Putin’s deeply misguided and brutal aggression in Ukraine -- and the fact that the war is now nearing the end of its fifth month with no end in sight -- should give China pause.

President Xi declared a “partnership without limits” with Putin in February. But – given Putin’s brutality and ineptitude – is this “partnership without limits” still in China’s interest? Or might Xi and the Chinese elite – for their own reasons – be persuaded to back away from a damaged Putin?

Perhaps a few key adjustments in U.S. diplomacy might help shift China's calculus on Russia's war in Ukraine in a more positive direction.