Can the U.S. Shift China's Calculus on Russia's War in Ukraine?

07/13/22 • 20 min

China has been cagey in its support for Russia since the February invasion of Ukraine. On one hand, China echoes Russia’s propaganda line and has ramped up purchases of Russian oil, giving the Putin regime a lifeline.
On the other hand, China has not sent military supplies to Russia. Chinese companies have actually decreased exports to Russia in recent months out of fear of sanctions. And China has not recognized the “independence” of the self-declared Russian puppet statelets in the Donbas region.

Putin’s deeply misguided and brutal aggression in Ukraine -- and the fact that the war is now nearing the end of its fifth month with no end in sight -- should give China pause.

President Xi declared a “partnership without limits” with Putin in February. But – given Putin’s brutality and ineptitude – is this “partnership without limits” still in China’s interest? Or might Xi and the Chinese elite – for their own reasons – be persuaded to back away from a damaged Putin?

Perhaps a few key adjustments in U.S. diplomacy might help shift China's calculus on Russia's war in Ukraine in a more positive direction.

Putin’s deeply misguided and brutal aggression in Ukraine -- and the fact that the war is now nearing the end of its fifth month with no end in sight -- should give China pause.

Perhaps a few key adjustments in U.S. diplomacy might help shift China's calculus on Russia's war in Ukraine in a more positive direction.

Previous Episode

Will Putin Use Nukes in Ukraine?

Putin's war against Ukraine is already a nuclear war. Although he has not pushed the nuclear button, Putin and his propagandists have used Russia's nuclear arsenal extensively to try to intimidate Ukraine and -- in particular -- the West. Threats of nuclear war have been fast and furious, with Russian TV commentators expressing outright glee at the prospect of nuclear annihilation of the UK, the US and other Western targets. The Putin regime has discarded limits that even the USSR had in place on the inadvisability of nuclear threats. If Putin's nuclear threats succeed in Ukraine, we can expect him deploy such terror tactics against his next target. Western leaders must tred carefully, but not succumb to Putin's nuclear blackmail.

Next Episode

The View From Kyiv: How Ukraine Will Prevail in Putin's War

I spoke with Mykola Vorobiov, journalist and political-military analyst based in Kyiv. Mykola has devoted the past eight years to analyzing and writing about Russia's war on Ukraine, including covering the front in Donbas.
Mykola evaluates prospects for Ukraine's much anticipated counter-offensive in the key Kherson region in the South. He examines the composition and morale of Russian forces. He also reviews the political and economic affects of the war on Ukraine - and the solidity of U.S and European support.
Mykola is realistic: he underlines that Ukrainians understand that the war will not be over soon. But he makes a compelling case for why Ukraine will prevail.