Macro Mondays | Asset Prices Making All-Time Highs. But Where's the Risk?
05/20/24 • 17 min
On today's show, James discusses the recent break out in the equity markets, and the huge surge higher in commodities with a particular focus on silver. Copper and Gold are at all-time highs and silver has broken out aggressively from of a key resistance level at $30, which previously acted as triple top. Nickle, Tin, Zinc, Aluminium and other metals are surging higher and even orange juice is trading at all-time highs.
Last week's data has created some interesting moves in the markets. US CPI came in at 3.4% on expectations, confirming inflation is falling again. But on the flip side, retail sales data told us that the consumer in the US is hurting, unemployment is ticking up and the economy is slowing.
The key data to look out for this week is; Canadian CPI on Tuesday, UK CPI, Nvidia earnings, US exiting home sales and FED minutes on Wednesday, the Eurozone and UK PMIs on Thursday and US durable goods orders and UK retail sales on Friday.
If you would like to connect with any of your host, James Brodie or ask a question, you can follow him X (formally Twitter) @jamesrbrodie
Or, follow him on LinkedIn by clicking the link below: James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
On today's show, James discusses the recent break out in the equity markets, and the huge surge higher in commodities with a particular focus on silver. Copper and Gold are at all-time highs and silver has broken out aggressively from of a key resistance level at $30, which previously acted as triple top. Nickle, Tin, Zinc, Aluminium and other metals are surging higher and even orange juice is trading at all-time highs.
Last week's data has created some interesting moves in the markets. US CPI came in at 3.4% on expectations, confirming inflation is falling again. But on the flip side, retail sales data told us that the consumer in the US is hurting, unemployment is ticking up and the economy is slowing.
The key data to look out for this week is; Canadian CPI on Tuesday, UK CPI, Nvidia earnings, US exiting home sales and FED minutes on Wednesday, the Eurozone and UK PMIs on Thursday and US durable goods orders and UK retail sales on Friday.
If you would like to connect with any of your host, James Brodie or ask a question, you can follow him X (formally Twitter) @jamesrbrodie
Or, follow him on LinkedIn by clicking the link below: James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Previous Episode
Roaring OPEC | S6 E 22
Brent crude is consolidating around $82-83/bbl. The big story over the weekend was Iraq’s oil minister, Hayyan Abdul, saying on Saturday that Iraq would not agree to renew cuts, but flipped on Sunday, saying that Iraq will continue to cooperate with other member states about this cut.
Looking to the refinery margins, spreads have collapsed with stop outs driving the movement. There was a significant drop in RBBR, down to just $21.50/bbl in Jul. There has been a build in EIA gasoline stocks (900kbbls) and refinery utilisation is up 1% .
The big Macro news headlines have kicked off with Roaring Kitty returning to X (formally Twitter) yesterday, which has already resulted in a 70% rally for GameStop. The key data this week is U.S CPI expected to drop from 3.5% YoY to 3.4%. Reaction is critical, with 10yr at key levels. 4.40% is key support.
Onto Googling Oil, the major headlines discussed this week are; Russia finding a huge gas and oil reserve in British Antarctic territory and EU potentially calling time on Russian LNG imports.
The trade idea for this week is; Short Q3 380 east west.
If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/\
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Next Episode
Something Funky Going On | S6 E23
Crude futures climbed over the week, surpassing $84/bbl on Monday morning, which was the first weekly gain in 3 weeks.
Heating oil and gas oil were the most negative in the refinery margin change this week. We saw strength come back into EBOB and Gasoil which has helped the products we look at in the swaps market in Europe see greater strength.
James says the macro news last week was the US CPI data, which is falling again. There was also weaker than expected retail sales and industrial production, dragging US yields lower. Elsewhere, the big movers of the week were in the commodity markets, with copper, gold, even orange juice at all-time highs. Silver though was the big mover, breaking key resistance at $30 and now targeting all time highs of $49.8. Nickel, tin, zinc, aluminium..... are all surging higher as well.
The team also discuss the big shale oil story coming out of the US regarding a wave of class action lawsuits, after regulators claim the industry conspired to curb production.
The trade idea this week is buy Long Jun/Jul DFL.
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome
1:30 Brent Futures
7:33 Refinery margins & CTA positioning
15:35 Macro market news
19:31 "Googling oil:" world oil news
28:33 Key data
30:32 Trade idea of the week
35:53 Poll results, equities & retail trading
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