Flux News

On today's show, James discusses the recent break out in the equity markets, and the huge surge higher in commodities with a particular focus on silver. Copper and Gold are at all-time highs and silver has broken out aggressively from of a key resistance level at $30, which previously acted as triple top. Nickle, Tin, Zinc, Aluminium and other metals are surging higher and even orange juice is trading at all-time highs.

Last week's data has created some interesting moves in the markets. US CPI came in at 3.4% on expectations, confirming inflation is falling again. But on the flip side, retail sales data told us that the consumer in the US is hurting, unemployment is ticking up and the economy is slowing.

The key data to look out for this week is; Canadian CPI on Tuesday, UK CPI, Nvidia earnings, US exiting home sales and FED minutes on Wednesday, the Eurozone and UK PMIs on Thursday and US durable goods orders and UK retail sales on Friday.

If you would like to connect with any of your host, James Brodie or ask a question, you can follow him X (formally Twitter) @jamesrbrodie
Or, follow him on LinkedIn by clicking the link below: James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/

Group Head of Research, Harry Tchilinguirian, is joined by Chief Economist at Argus Media, David Fyfe for a special episode of Oil Insights. David brings over 30 years of experience in energy market analysis, from the International Energy Agency (IEA) to Gunvor and now Argus Media, where he delivers deep insights into oil market dynamics, geopolitical risk, and macroeconomic fundamentals.
With the election of Donald J. Trump as the 47th President of the United States, Harry and David explore the potential impacts on the oil market through both economic and geopolitical lenses. From sanctions on Iran and Venezuela to shifting alliances in the Middle East and implications for OPEC+, they delve into what a Trump administration could mean for global oil supplies and prices.
David and Harry discuss the complex web of relationships involving sanctioned nations, including the evolving US-Russia dynamic and how Trump's rapport with Saudi Arabia and Israel might influence geopolitical stability. They also explore the ramifications of Trump's trade policies, especially with China, and the possible effects on global economic growth and oil demand.
On the domestic front, they analyse the prospects for US oil and gas production under Trump’s energy policies and whether we could see a revival of the "drill baby drill" mantra. Finally, Harry and Davis assess the current state of oil market fundamentals as 2024 nears its close, the ongoing debate around oil demand forecasts, and OPEC+'s options in managing supply amid an uncertain market outlook.
#oott #oil #oilandgas #energy #derivatives #economics #Trump #Election #Harris #2024Election

Brent is back in the $80’s this week after a huge rebound and initial sell-off post-OPEC meeting. Crude flat prices are back to where we were pre-OPEC meeting, as the August contract fell to lows of $77/bbl before climbing all the way back up to $82/bbl this morning.

The M1 refinery margins in Europe continue to weaken this week by nearly $0.35/bbl; however, the same in Asia climbed by $0.55/bbl this week. Asian margins appear to be picking up compared to how low they were at the end of May. The market still looks less confident about gasoline, though.

The summer demand looks like it's manifesting in jet fuel in Asia, due to strong aviation demand - which is soaring as travel returns back to pre-Covid levels.

Looking to the macro market, James and Greg discuss why unemployment has ticked up 4.4%. As demand is falling, people aren't spending as much, and lower-income households are hurting. Full-time work is declining, and people with multiple part time jobs are on the rise. This isn't a great sign for the economy.

The trade idea for this week is long US propane.

If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Mita Chaturvedi: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mita-chaturvedi/
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome
1:25 Brent Futures
6:44 Refinery margins
14:39 Macro market news
23:42 "Googling oil:" world oil news
31:52 Trade idea of the week
37:58 Poll results and outro

Crude futures climbed over the week, surpassing $84/bbl on Monday morning, which was the first weekly gain in 3 weeks.

Heating oil and gas oil were the most negative in the refinery margin change this week. We saw strength come back into EBOB and Gasoil which has helped the products we look at in the swaps market in Europe see greater strength.

James says the macro news last week was the US CPI data, which is falling again. There was also weaker than expected retail sales and industrial production, dragging US yields lower. Elsewhere, the big movers of the week were in the commodity markets, with copper, gold, even orange juice at all-time highs. Silver though was the big mover, breaking key resistance at $30 and now targeting all time highs of $49.8. Nickel, tin, zinc, aluminium..... are all surging higher as well.

The team also discuss the big shale oil story coming out of the US regarding a wave of class action lawsuits, after regulators claim the industry conspired to curb production.

The trade idea this week is buy Long Jun/Jul DFL.

Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome
1:30 Brent Futures
7:33 Refinery margins & CTA positioning
15:35 Macro market news
19:31 "Googling oil:" world oil news
28:33 Key data
30:32 Trade idea of the week
35:53 Poll results, equities & retail trading

In this episode Greg Newman and the Onyx Research team discuss the resurgence in the markets. Plus - will OPEC cut again?
Greg Newman
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Ehsan Massah
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilanalyst/
Audrey Byrne:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/audrey-byrne-a32009183/