Episode 24: Heuristics and Biases in the Democratic Primary
Explicit content warning
06/19/19 • 63 min
Yoel and Mickey take a deep dive into the Democratic Primary field, asking what the field of judgment and decision making can teach us about the large and diverse field of Democratic candidates. Why is Biden leading in the polls? Is Elizabeth Warren being helped by Kamala Harris? Why isn’t Biden hurt by progressives’ deep dislike of him? What should we make of one-issue voters?
Bonus: Yoel makes a fearless and consequential prediction. Who will make him stick to his word?
Links:
- Miller High Life • RateBeer
- Following outcry, American Psychological Association “refocuses” takedown notice program – Retraction Watch
- 2020 Presidential Candidates | The New York Times
- The recognition heuristic: A decade of research — The recognition heuristic exploits the basic psychological capacity for recognition in order to make inferences about unknown quantities in the world
- The Adaptive Decision Maker: John W. Payne, James R. Bettman, Eric J. Johnson: 9780521425261: Books - Amazon.ca — The Adaptive Decision Maker argues that people use a variety of strategies to make judgments and choices. The authors introduce a model that shows how decision makers which strategy a person will use in a given situation.
- Decoy effect - Wikipedia — In marketing, the decoy effect (or attraction effect or asymmetric dominance effect) is the phenomenon whereby consumers will tend to have a specific change in preference between two options when also presented with a third option that is asymmetrically dominated.
- Choice Based on Reasons: The Case of Attraction and Compromise Effects on JSTOR — Choice Based on Reasons: The Case of Attraction and Compromise Effects
Yoel and Mickey take a deep dive into the Democratic Primary field, asking what the field of judgment and decision making can teach us about the large and diverse field of Democratic candidates. Why is Biden leading in the polls? Is Elizabeth Warren being helped by Kamala Harris? Why isn’t Biden hurt by progressives’ deep dislike of him? What should we make of one-issue voters?
Bonus: Yoel makes a fearless and consequential prediction. Who will make him stick to his word?
Links:
- Miller High Life • RateBeer
- Following outcry, American Psychological Association “refocuses” takedown notice program – Retraction Watch
- 2020 Presidential Candidates | The New York Times
- The recognition heuristic: A decade of research — The recognition heuristic exploits the basic psychological capacity for recognition in order to make inferences about unknown quantities in the world
- The Adaptive Decision Maker: John W. Payne, James R. Bettman, Eric J. Johnson: 9780521425261: Books - Amazon.ca — The Adaptive Decision Maker argues that people use a variety of strategies to make judgments and choices. The authors introduce a model that shows how decision makers which strategy a person will use in a given situation.
- Decoy effect - Wikipedia — In marketing, the decoy effect (or attraction effect or asymmetric dominance effect) is the phenomenon whereby consumers will tend to have a specific change in preference between two options when also presented with a third option that is asymmetrically dominated.
- Choice Based on Reasons: The Case of Attraction and Compromise Effects on JSTOR — Choice Based on Reasons: The Case of Attraction and Compromise Effects
Previous Episode
Episode 23: Slow-Form Journalism (with Daniel Engber)
Yoel and Mickey welcome Slate columnist Daniel Engber to the podcast. Dan talks about the state of science journalism, including what he sees as more skeptical, less credulous reporting. He also talks about the replication crisis in psychology, imposter syndrome in academics, concussion in sport, and the value of blue-ribbon panels opining on the state of science. Dan also delights with his contrarian takes on marathon running, the windchill factor, and a computer’s progress bar.
Bonus: Yoel yet again finds an excuse to drink no beer at all.
Special Guest: Daniel Engber.
Links:
- Apex Predator | Off Color Brewing
- Folly Brewing Toronto Microbrewery — Imposter Syndrome -- Farmhouse IPA
- Everything Is Crumbling — An influential psychological theory, borne out in hundreds of experiments, may have just been debunked. How can so many scientists have been so wrong?
- Daryl Bem proved ESP is real. Which means science is broken.
- How the progress bar keeps you sane | TED Talk
- Don’t Run a Marathon — Running a marathon is a dangerous, expensive, stupid, meaningless task. Don’t do it.
- Wind chill is a meaningless number. So why are we still using it?
Next Episode
Episode 25: Truth and Political Bias in Psychology (with John Jost)
Yoel and Mickey welcome Professor of Psychology and Politics John Jost from New York University to the podcast. Author of the most influential political psychology paper of the last two decades, John talks about the role of psychology in politics and the role of politics in psychology. Is it fair to characterize conservatives as dogmatic, rigid, and close-minded? Given replication failures, are conservatives indeed more attuned to negative stimuli in their environments? Does the description of conservatives as resistant to change applicable in the Trump era? Should social scientists be advocates/activists, neutral fact-finders, or something in between? Why is the dominance of liberals in social psychology (and academia more broadly) not a problem?
Bonus: What is with all the homo-eroticism?
Special Guest: John Jost.
Links:
- Juicy Ass - Flying Monkeys
- Farmageddon (Raspberry & Black Raspberry - 2019) – Bellwoods Brewery
- Modelo Especial | Casa Modelo Mexican Beer
- Political Conservatism as Motivated Social Cognition — Analyzing political conservatism as motivated social cognition integrates theories of personality (authoritarianism, dogmatism—intolerance of ambiguity), epistemic and existential needs (for closure, regulatory focus, terror management), and ideological rationalization (social dominance, system justification).
- The Politics of Fear: Is There an Ideological Asymmetry in Existential Motivation? | Social Cognition — Although the association between fear of death and conservatism was not reliable, there was a significant effect of mortality salience (r = .08–.13) and a significant association between subjective perceptions of threat and conservatism (r = .12–.31).
- Ideological Asymmetries and the Essence of Political Psychology - Jost - 2017 - Political Psychology - Wiley Online Library — Individuals are not merely passive vessels of whatever beliefs and opinions they have been exposed to; rather, they are attracted to belief systems that resonate with their own psychological needs and interests, including epistemic, existential, and relational needs to attain certainty, security, and social belongingness.
- Ideological asymmetries in conformity, desire for shared reality, and the spread of misinformation. - PubMed - NCBI — Ideological belief systems arise from epistemic, existential, and relational motives to reduce uncertainty, threat, and social discord.
- Neoliberal Ideology and the Justification of Inequality in Capitalist Societies: Why Social and Economic Dimensions of Ideology Are Intertwined
- An Asymmetrical “President-in-Power” Effect | American Political Science Review | Cambridge Core — When political polarization is high, it may be assumed that citizens will trust the government more when the chief executive shares their own political views.
- A quarter century of system justification...
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