152. It Wasn’t Equity Turmoil That Spooked Trump — It Was the Bond Market. A Deep Dive into WHY

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04/11/25 • 78 min

This week on The Wall Street Skinny, we dive headfirst into the chaos that’s been roiling the markets—and specifically why what's happening in the bond market has investors spooked. Treasury auctions, bond yields, the dollar, and gold are all flashing red, and we break down exactly why. Kristen turns the mic to Jen, who spent nearly a decade on the interest rates desk at Morgan Stanley, Lehman, and Barclays, for an explainer on what exactly is going on in the bond markets and what it means.

We unpack the mechanics of recent treasury auctions, why foreign demand may be evaporating, and what that means for the U.S. government’s ability to finance its ballooning debt. If you've ever glossed over headlines about yield curves or direct bidder participation, this episode connects the dots—from tariff policy and inflation fears to bond market dysfunction and reserve currency status. We also tackle the growing concerns around private equity and private credit, where volatility may be hidden under the surface due to lack of mark-to-market transparency.

And while it may sound like doom and gloom (spoiler: Jen is not sleeping well), we’re here to arm you with clarity—not panic. Whether you're a finance student trying to break in, a junior banker watching the headlines, or a PE associate wondering how this impacts your portfolio companies, this is your crash course in macro stress, treasury dynamics, and the unintended consequences of trade wars.

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Previous Episode

151. Tariffs 101: Why the Markets and U.S. Dollar Are Tanking

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Markets are in chaos, which is why on this week’s episode Kristen and Jen ditch the interviews to break down what the hell is happening in markets right now. From tariffs to the dollar and everything in between, we’re unpacking the massive moves in equities, the near-trigger of the circuit breaker, and what April 2nd — aka "Liberation Day" — really means.
We dive deep into the economic mechanics behind tariffs — what they are, how they work, and why they’re suddenly wreaking havoc. Jen gives a mini masterclass on the history of U.S. tariff policy, from Smoot-Hawley to modern-day trade wars, plus the ripple effects on the dollar and inflation. We talk stagflation risks, interest rates, retaliation from global trade partners, and whether this all signals a bigger shakeup — including real questions about the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency (along with some conspiracy theories about whether there’s an ulterior motive for these moves).
Finally, we pivot to some deal talk, focusing on the all-stock merger between Elon Musk’s xAI and X (formerly Twitter). We break down what the deal actually means, why valuations seem... dubious, and how the whole thing serves as a real-world lesson in equity dilution. Bonus: we close with a little pickleball, skiing, and business etiquette chat — because it’s not all macro mayhem all the time.

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Next Episode

153. Steve Eisman, the Real-Life "Big Short" Investor, on Tariff Panic and Lessons From the 2008 Crisis

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This week on The Wall Street Skinny, we’re diving headfirst into one of the most volatile weeks in recent memory—and we brought backup. After a whiplash-inducing reversal in the bond and equity markets, Jen and Kristen break down how the tariff announcements are rippling through rates, treasury auctions, and investor sentiment. From the Fed’s shrinking balance sheet to the rising fear that the U.S. may be losing its “flight to quality” status, we unpack what’s really happening beneath the headlines—and why the bond market might be the biggest canary in the coal mine.

Then, we’re joined by legendary investor Steve Eisman—yes, the Steve Eisman portrayed by Steve Carell in The Big Short—for a candid conversation about the state of the global economy, what everyone’s missing in this moment of policy upheaval, and why he’s not panicking. We get his take on the implications of Trump’s tariffs, the fate of the U.S. dollar, and what it would actually take for the Fed to step in meaningfully. Steve also shares how he spotted the subprime crisis before anyone else, and why he’s still staying cool in today’s environment of uncertainty and anxiety.

Whether you’re an investor trying to make sense of the macro crosswinds or a Wall Street hopeful wondering how the system reacts in real time, this episode is packed with hard-earned perspective, market wisdom, and—yes—a few deep cuts from Battlestar Galactica. Stay tuned to hear how Steve really feels about being played by Steve Carell, and why sometimes the best strategy is to zoom out, shut off CNBC, and not sell your soul to the volatility gods.

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