
Weapons of Math Destruction with Cathy O'Neil
02/08/18 • 73 min
This week's guest, Cathy O'Neil, wrote a book called Weapons of Math Destruction, which explores how pervasive predictive modeling is becoming and also how bad models influence, sometimes direct, big decisions. Bad in this case means models that are, to the trained eye, laughably inappropriate for their task. Take for example teacher testing, which will make hire/fire decisions on teacher performance based on an absurdly small and biased data set.
We of course also discuss the potential of algorithms and how Cathy set up a company, ORCAA, to audit algorithms to ensure they aren't, as she calls them WMDs! We also dive deep into the why of bad modeling, what it's like to be a math professor on and off airplanes and insurance risk.
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This week's guest, Cathy O'Neil, wrote a book called Weapons of Math Destruction, which explores how pervasive predictive modeling is becoming and also how bad models influence, sometimes direct, big decisions. Bad in this case means models that are, to the trained eye, laughably inappropriate for their task. Take for example teacher testing, which will make hire/fire decisions on teacher performance based on an absurdly small and biased data set.
We of course also discuss the potential of algorithms and how Cathy set up a company, ORCAA, to audit algorithms to ensure they aren't, as she calls them WMDs! We also dive deep into the why of bad modeling, what it's like to be a math professor on and off airplanes and insurance risk.
Subscribe in iTunes, stitcher, or by rss feed. Sign up for my newsletter here
Twitter: @davecwright
Surprise, It's Insurance mailing list
Linkedin
Social Science of Insurance Essays
Previous Episode

Fighting Against Weather Models With Judah Cohen
Ever wondered what the polar vortex is and why it can get so cold in the winter? Judah Cohen is among the few who has been able to predict these things has an answer.
Judah is director of seasonal forecasting at AER, a verisk business, and a visiting scientist at the civil and engineering department at MIT. Judah has observed, like many of us, that the major weather forecasting models aren't particularly good in the Winter. He builds his own forecast, modifying the outputs of those models, and has a pretty good track record.
I came across him because in the winter he maintains an exceptionally technical blog on forecasting the winter weather. He updates it weekly and keeps a running forecast of what's going to happen at various time intervals according to his own model and his modifications of the results of the more mainstream models all TV and website meteorologists use.
What really struck me in this conversation is how mysterious the atmosphere still is to the scientific community. We discuss this, Judah's proposed mechanism for the phenomenon we call the Polar Vortex, Judah's love of snow and much more.
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Twitter: @davecwright
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Social Science of Insurance Essays
Next Episode

At The Cutting Edge of Insurance Modeling With Jim Weiss
Today's guest is Jim Weiss, the director of analytic solutions for ISO. ISO houses perhaps the richest insurance data repository on the planet and among Jim's responsibilities is building models that don't use it! I joke.. Actually, Jim is exploring new frontiers of modeling for insurance purposes. This episode works very well in conjunction with the Cathy O'Neil episode which of course recommend you listen to right away!
Subscribe in iTunes, stitcher, or by rss feed. Sign up for the mailing list at notunreasonable.com/signup.
youtube: https://youtu.be/_VQ5-RYmm14
Twitter: @davecwright
Surprise, It's Insurance mailing list
Linkedin
Social Science of Insurance Essays
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