The Energy Diplomacy We Need to Win the Long Game with Russia

08/15/22 • 71 min

I spoke with my former State Department colleague Ben Schmitt on August 12 about energy sanctions against Russia. We reviewed how Germany had willfully made itself more dependent on Russian energy through a misguided policy of "change through trade." We discussed the outlook for Europe's efforts to rapidly wean itself off Russian oil and gas. While in the near term, Russia is finding alternative markets for its oil in China and India, medium and longer term trends resulting from energy sanctions spell peril for the Russian oil and gas industry.

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The View From Kyiv: How Ukraine Will Prevail in Putin's War

I spoke with Mykola Vorobiov, journalist and political-military analyst based in Kyiv. Mykola has devoted the past eight years to analyzing and writing about Russia's war on Ukraine, including covering the front in Donbas.
Mykola evaluates prospects for Ukraine's much anticipated counter-offensive in the key Kherson region in the South. He examines the composition and morale of Russian forces. He also reviews the political and economic affects of the war on Ukraine - and the solidity of U.S and European support.
Mykola is realistic: he underlines that Ukrainians understand that the war will not be over soon. But he makes a compelling case for why Ukraine will prevail.

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Putin's Ouster: History Offers Hope

Russian and Soviet history make it clear that defeat in war can result in the overthrow of the leader and that -- in the Soviet period especially -- the inner circle has repeatedly taken action against a leader seen to have failed. Autocrats rule through the appearance of strength. Putin is weakened and getting desperate. Yet he continues to hold on to his imperial fantasies. There is no hope for any real peace while Putin remains in the Kremlin. However strong he may seek to appear, if history is a guide, Putin's fall may occur as Hemmingway once said of bankruptcy: gradually -- and then suddenly.