Talking Feds

It was a week in which Donald Trump was pummeled from all corners of the legal system, starting with an FBI search of his Mar-A-Lago residence. The feds acted after learning that Trump and his circle had failed to return hugely sensitive documents that he improperly took from the White House and was continuing to conceal. A banner set of guests–Aaron Blake, Alexi McCammond, and Andrew Weissmann—join Harry to analyze the seismic events and assess their potential for future criminal culpability.

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An episode with a somewhat longer vantage point than our normal fare, w/ a matching thoughtful panel of David French, Susan Glasser, & Jonah Goldberg. We begin with a clear-eyed & sober look at the prediction by a noted political scientist that the Trump presidency is becoming more and more likely. From there, we turn to McCarthy’s calling it quits and Johnson’s latest kissing of Trump’s ring. We then delve into the debacle of the university presidents’ testimony, and the lessons it presents.

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Even by Trump standards, it was an extraordinarily explosive week, with the fireworks continuing into the live taping of the episode. Fortunately, a terrific panel of Emily Bazelon, Susan Glasser, and Carol Leonnig were on hand to roll with the punches, and also work through the Trump minefield of immunity stay motion in Supreme Court; advent of the hush money, trial in Manhattan; dangerous and obnoxious Trump comments on NATO, and the huge hit of the fraud opinion that arrived mid discussion.

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The preliminaries ended abruptly this week, and we suddenly find ourselves at the starting line for the general election. Robert Costa, Hugo Lowell, & Tara Setmayer join Harry to break down the pivotal events that brought us here – Trump’s rout of Haley on Super Tuesday and Biden’s rousing SOTU. Trump’s triumph sharpened the stakes of his delay strategy for his several pending criminal cases, but other than the imminent Manhattan case, the prospects for a trial before November look touch-and-go.

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Harry talks with Michael Podhorzer, founder of the Analyst Institute and perhaps the foremost student in the country of the true utility and disutility of political polls. Podhorzer explains the critical difference between two types of “undecided” voters the polls lump together – those (very very rare) votes still uncertain whom to vote for and those (much more common) voters who may or may not vote but know whom they would vote for. The difference has key implications for the state of the race, the best strategies for the campaign, and the right and wrong ways to interpret polls. The distinction also helps explain Trump’s steadfast refusal to expand or soften his autocratic extreme MAGA message. Podhorzer also explains the modeling he has done of the 2024 electorate based on vote history and behavior. A rich discussion and an effective antidote to the “Mad Poll Disease” that so many of us have as the election approaches.

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