Revisiting Hershey: The Market Pays What the Market Bears
02/19/25 • 38 min
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Following brief upward momentum after we first bought Hershey, the stock proceeded to slide downward. Cocoa prices remain elevated, and there is significant uncertainty surrounding the short-term impacts on the company's operations. However, Hershey's recent earnings report shows that the company is more resilient than it may appear.
Despite a 20% stock decline, Greg emphasizes that there are still many things to like about Hershey. Simply put, there is much more to the story than the current price of cocoa. Going a bit deeper, Greg examines the cocoa supply chain, specifically the impact of weather and geopolitical issues on production in major countries like Ivory Coast, Ecuador, and Ghana, highlighting several factors that suggest a possible future drop in cocoa prices. He further discusses Hershey's superb hedging strategies, strong balance sheet, and potential for high returns through dividends and stock growth within the next decade. Ultimately, Hershey's attractive valuation, dividend yield, and potential dividend growth allow investors to start with an advantage. In closing, Greg presents a Suber Bowl analogy to underscore the patience required for long-term investing, contrasting it with the short-term focus prevalent in current market analysis.
00:00 Introduction to The Dividend Mailbox
02:16 Revisiting the Hershey Story
05:37 Hershey's Market Position and Challenges
07:36 Cocoa Market Dynamics
12:04 Hershey's Financial Health and Strategy
15:29 Investment Strategies and Long-Term Outlook
25:50 Rant on Market Commentary and Short-Term Thinking
31:14 Super Bowl Analogy and Final Thoughts
37:50 Conclusion and Contact Information
Book time on our calendar here
If you submit a question to us and we use it in an episode, we will send you an official The Dividend Mailbox Yeti® Tumbler -> Email us at [email protected].
Notes & Resources:
DCM Investment Reports & Models
Visit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.
Follow us on:
Instagram - Facebook - LinkedIn - X
If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review
More on dividend growth investing -> Join our market newsletter!
Schedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management
Following brief upward momentum after we first bought Hershey, the stock proceeded to slide downward. Cocoa prices remain elevated, and there is significant uncertainty surrounding the short-term impacts on the company's operations. However, Hershey's recent earnings report shows that the company is more resilient than it may appear.
Despite a 20% stock decline, Greg emphasizes that there are still many things to like about Hershey. Simply put, there is much more to the story than the current price of cocoa. Going a bit deeper, Greg examines the cocoa supply chain, specifically the impact of weather and geopolitical issues on production in major countries like Ivory Coast, Ecuador, and Ghana, highlighting several factors that suggest a possible future drop in cocoa prices. He further discusses Hershey's superb hedging strategies, strong balance sheet, and potential for high returns through dividends and stock growth within the next decade. Ultimately, Hershey's attractive valuation, dividend yield, and potential dividend growth allow investors to start with an advantage. In closing, Greg presents a Suber Bowl analogy to underscore the patience required for long-term investing, contrasting it with the short-term focus prevalent in current market analysis.
00:00 Introduction to The Dividend Mailbox
02:16 Revisiting the Hershey Story
05:37 Hershey's Market Position and Challenges
07:36 Cocoa Market Dynamics
12:04 Hershey's Financial Health and Strategy
15:29 Investment Strategies and Long-Term Outlook
25:50 Rant on Market Commentary and Short-Term Thinking
31:14 Super Bowl Analogy and Final Thoughts
37:50 Conclusion and Contact Information
Book time on our calendar here
If you submit a question to us and we use it in an episode, we will send you an official The Dividend Mailbox Yeti® Tumbler -> Email us at [email protected].
Notes & Resources:
DCM Investment Reports & Models
Visit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.
Follow us on:
Instagram - Facebook - LinkedIn - X
If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review
Previous Episode
Predictive Power Lies in Understanding What You Own
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Is there anything predictable about the stock market? If so, how much power or truth does it hold? Do sophisticated models and strategies have a predictive edge? Even if you’re an investor with limited experience, the odds are at least one of these questions has piqued your interest at some point in your investing career.
In episode 43, Greg discusses predictability in ETF income and dividend growth. He examines various ETFs tracking the S&P 500, such as SPY, IVV, and VOO, highlighting discrepancies in their dividend growth rates from year to year. Greg emphasizes the importance of not making investment decisions based solely on headline numbers, as these may not tell the full story. The episode also explores the limitations of discounted cash flow models, touching on the challenges of long-term forecasts and the uncertainties of market competition. Ultimately, he advises investors to focus on understanding what they own and cautions against overly sophisticated financial models that may introduce more risk and uncertainty.
00:00 Introduction to The Dividend Mailbox
00:46 Understanding ETF Predictability
01:46 Analyzing S&P 500 Dividend Growth
04:09 Comparing Different S&P 500 ETFs
10:49 Exploring the S&P 100 and Other Indexes
16:57 The Complexity of Enhanced Income ETFs
24:27 The Power and Pitfalls of Predictability
25:46 Diving into Discounted Cash Flow Models
31:13 The Terminal Value Trap
38:53 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
Book time on our calendar here
If you submit a question to us and we use it in an episode, we will send you an official The Dividend Mailbox Yeti® Tumbler -> Email us at [email protected].
Notes & Resources:
DCM Investment Reports & Models
Visit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.
Follow us on:
Instagram - Facebook - LinkedIn - X
If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review
Next Episode
What Does a 'Fat Pitch' Look Like?
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Schedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management
While it may be a somewhat misused paraphrase of Warren Buffett's famous baseball analogy, 'fat pitch' is a term often thrown around in investing circles. In most settings, it implies that an investment opportunity is extremely lucrative with a high probability of success—but they are rare. Beyond having the discipline to patiently wait for these opportunities, what does a 'fat pitch' actually look like?
In this episode, Greg discusses the concept of 'fat pitches' by exploring the extraordinary long-term performance of Altria (formerly Philip Morris), despite numerous industry challenges and negative headlines. Through a detailed analysis of Altria's historical performance, including its high dividend yield and impressive cash flow management, he emphasizes the timeless principles of dividend growth, patient investing, and compounding.
00:00 Introduction to The Dividend Mailbox Podcast
02:34 Review of Current Dividend Growth Performance and Market Observations
06:13 Case Study: The Success of Philip Morris
15:58 Key Takeaways from Philip Morris's Performance
24:51 Lessons on Dividend Growth and Compounding
32:14 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
Book time on our calendar here
If you submit a question to us and we use it in an episode, we will send you an official The Dividend Mailbox Yeti® Tumbler -> Email us at [email protected].
Notes & Resources:
DCM Investment Reports & Models
Visit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.
Follow us on:
Instagram - Facebook - LinkedIn - X
If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review
The Dividend Mailbox® - Revisiting Hershey: The Market Pays What the Market Bears
Transcript
[00:00:11] Greg Denewiler: This is Greg Denewiler, and you are listening to another episode of The Dividend Mailbox, a monthly podcast about dividend growth. Our goal is to stuff your mailbox full of dividend checks. When they grow over time, a funny thing happens, you create wealth.
Welcome to episode 44 of The Dividend Mailbox. Today, we're going to revisit a story that we first brought up in episode 35. Here's the great news, the stock has gone down about 20% since we
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