Savvy Investors 'Buy Straw Hats in Winter'

04/22/24 • 69 min

David Daglio, the chief investment officer and global investment strategist of wealth- advisory firm TwinFocus, joins the show. He kicks things off by describing himself as a contrarian, and he explains that understanding who you are as a person will lead to the best investing results. After, he goes into detail on how TwinFocus looks for creative "straw hat" solutions that the market isn't seeing. Plus, he talks about risk premiums, the current opportunity in natural gas, and the 30-year discount in gold-mining stocks. (3:29)

Next, David discusses the advantages and disadvantages of working at a large firm versus being an individual investor. He shares that individual investors have the advantage of not being overloaded with information, plus they're their own boss and can make their own decisions. David also details the three conditions TwinFocus looks for before jumping into an investment, the importance of recognizing your own intellectual biases, and how market skepticism can be a huge opportunity. (15:29)

Lastly, David talks about "net-net" companies in the biotech sector that are trading for less than their total assets... he breaks down what capital imbalance is and how to spot it... and he explains that the savviest investors try to be like Spock from Star Trek, valuing facts over feelings. (28:49)

Dan and Corey close out the podcast by discussing the Stansberry Research editorial meeting that happened last week. This meeting brings Stansberry's editors and analysts together to discuss different investing ideas and pertinent world news. One of the hot topics at the meeting was the presidential election in November. Dan and Corey emphasize that the best investors keep politics out of their investing decisions and stick to their core strategy regardless of which candidate takes office. (49:22)

Previous Episode

Stick to Your Process, Even When It's Painful

Gary Mishuris of Silver Ring Value Partners talks about today's market being one of the most challenging periods for bottom-up investing since 2007. In terms of the quality of a business versus its stock price, there isn't a lot of opportunity right now. But he emphasizes that transparency and candor with clients is essential, as is prioritizing the long-term process over short-term performance. (5:19)

Next, Gary describes what sets Silver Ring Value apart from other fund managers. He shares why he left the "sausage factory" of larger firms behind, how his firm makes money for clients rather than off of clients, and how his unique temperament and behavioral models allow him to make better investing decisions. (14:38)

Gary also goes into detail on the psychology behind investing and compares it with a game of poker. He talks about trying to avoid making mistakes, continuously learning from past errors, the importance of having guardrails in place, and cutting your losses. (21:44)

Then, Gary explains why you should never be ashamed to change your mind, even when you haven't received any new information. It's OK to reanalyze the same set of facts and admit that you were wrong, and he cites several examples of investors who have learned and grown from their past mistakes. (31:21)

Lastly, Dan and Corey discuss the consumer price index and gold. Inflation came in hotter than expected, while gold has broken out to new highs. Dan and Corey speculate on how long gold's bull run can last. Plus, they detail gold being a good hedge for retirement against the government's money-printing addiction. (48:18)

Next Episode

AI Is Changing Everything You've Learned About Investing

David Trainer, the founder and CEO of New Constructs, joins the show. He kicks off the conversation by describing how his company takes value investing to the next level with AI. He explains that the days of buying stocks and holding them forever are gone. Today's investing landscape requires investors to be more agile, and AI helps with this. David specifically mentions how he uses AI to sort through millions of financial filings, footnotes, and data points to give him an edge and produce better results. However, he warns that AI is only as good as the data that goes into it. (3:49)

Then, David talks in depth about how humans are still involved in the investing process, including making decisions when the AI is unsure how to interpret certain findings. He breaks down how New Constructs' technology is giving clients a competitive advantage and augmenting the rest of their strategy. Plus, David discusses the importance of using both technicals and fundamentals when investing, and he shares why expectations matter so much to valuation. (14:34)

Lastly, David names the two sectors he finds most attractive and two that folks should avoid. This segues into a conversation about a recent pump-and-dump scheme used to take advantage of retail investors, why the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission doesn't take action even when it should, and the damage done by years of low interest rates. (33:35)

Dan and Corey close things out by discussing inflation and the hotter-than-expected numbers for the personal consumption expenditures index. They cover unrealistic investor expectations for rate cuts, the government's misplaced priorities, and the very real consequences of this persistent inflation on workers and small businesses. (51:20)