Looking beyond the near term - David Riley

03/13/20 • 18 min

David Riley, Chief Investment Strategist, joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to discuss the volatility in financial markets, likelihood of recession and buying opportunities for investors.
David answers:

We have seen huge volatility in financial markets in the last few weeks as the coronavirus has spread with big corrections in equity markets, widening in credit spreads and government bond yields falling to record lows. Have markets over-reacted?
You mentioned the collapse in oil prices in 2015 and oil prices have fallen around 40% in the last few weeks. What are the implications of the collapse in global oil prices?
How should and will policymakers respond? Will central banks cutting interest rates help if the virus means companies will produce less and consumers spend less?
So, investors are right to be worried about growth. Does that mean it is likely there will be a global recession?
Our base-case means that after a near-term hit to the global economy, growth will pick-up. With the big sell-off in credit and emerging markets, does this mean this is a buying opportunity for investors?
What are the key developments that you think investors should watch over the coming weeks?
Looking beyond the near-term hit from the coronavirus, are there any key themes that investors should consider?

We have seen huge volatility in financial markets in the last few weeks as the coronavirus has spread with big corrections in equity markets, widening in credit spreads and government bond yields falling to record lows. Have markets over-reacted?
You mentioned the collapse in oil prices in 2015 and oil prices have fallen around 40% in the last few weeks. What are the implications of the collapse in global oil prices?
How should and will policymakers respond? Will central banks cutting interest rates help if the virus means companies will produce less and consumers spend less?
So, investors are right to be worried about growth. Does that mean it is likely there will be a global recession?
Our base-case means that after a near-term hit to the global economy, growth will pick-up. With the big sell-off in credit and emerging markets, does this mean this is a buying opportunity for investors?
What are the key developments that you think investors should watch over the coming weeks?
Looking beyond the near-term hit from the coronavirus, are there any key themes that investors should consider?

Previous Episode

Opportunities in Cocos - Marc Stacey

Marc Stacey joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to discuss the fundamentals, supply dynamics and banking sector changes that are lining up to form a compelling case for European bank capital.
We asked Marc:

What are coco bonds and what can they offer investors?
The evolution of banking regulation has a huge influence on the investment case for cocos – do you think future changes will be positive or negative for the asset class?
We’ve seen cocos go from zero to become an asset class worth over USD200 billion in just five years. What does this rapid growth mean in terms of bond supply?
We’re hearing investors becoming nervy about buying into cocos for fear they’ve missed the top of the market – do you think this is a valid concern or is there more upside to come?
How are you looking to capture these alpha opportunities through 2020?
What are the three main risks currently on your investment horizon?
What are the key differences between European AT1s and US preference shares (prefs)?
We’re seeing ESG factors influence all asset classes across the bond universe – what are the key points to note in the cocos market and how do you integrate ESG factors when you invest?

Next Episode

Market update - where do we go from here? - David Riley

David Riley joins us on the BlueBay Insights podcast to discuss latest market developments and outlines a path to stability.
We asked David:

Where do you think we stand now in terms of the spread of the virus and the economic and financial consequences?
Is this the beginning of the end of this crisis? When will we see economic and market recovery?
Why are some commentators now suggesting that we again are facing a financial crisis?
What has been happening in fixed and credit markets?
What is the path to stability?