43. Stock Market During Election Years: We're Not Getting Political, But Is The Market?
07/05/24 • 29 min
2 Listeners
How Does The Stock Market Perform During an Election Year? We are not getting political in this episode -- however, we are on a fact finding mission to understand if the stock market is. Let your fin-mom and fin-auntie break it down for you. 😉🔮
Does the U.S. Presidential election affect the stock market? Does the political party of the elected leader make a difference? Let's discuss, shallllll we? We're going to look at historical data going back to 1900 under each party and even drill down to the sectors.
Seasonality Happens Every Year, But Past Performance Is Not Indicative of Future Results 👻
There are 4 years in a U.S. Presidential cycle, the 4th year is positive for the stock market historically (S&P 500). Since 1928, the 4th year of an election cycle is up 73% of the time with a median return 9.5% - no matter who the political party is.
Does the political party in charge matter?
Looking at Democrat vs Republican, we go back to the 1900s when the DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) was created and see a very minimal difference whether Dem or Rep is in office. Clearly there’s no dispersion because the stock market relies on growth, but the outlier might be those instances when the political party of the president runs both the house and senate, the data changes a little, but overall, the outcome of the Presidential election does not really affect the stock market. The median annualized return every election year is 7.7% when a Democrat wins and 7.9% when a Republican wins, historically. Such a very small difference - make whatever conclusions from that you'd like. 😘
The Takeaway
Elections don’t really impact the stock market. There’s natural seasonality around the time of year Presidential elections take place, but the election itself and the outcome don’t make much of a difference. Time in the market is still your friend!! Stay consistent with how you invest and don’t be an emotional investor. Look at the overall stock market performance over a large span of time and you’ll see that there are always ups and downs, but when you stay invested for a long time your return inevitably goes up.
Check out this article Jess wrote for UK Money Week:
Ask Us a Question, Leave a Review, Follow, Subscribe:
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✨ Jess Inskip: TikTok Instagram
✨ Jessie DeNuit: TikTok Instagram Funny Finance Shirts and Merch
About Us 🌚🌞 Market MakeHer is an investing education podcast taught by a 15-year finance expert to her friend, a beginner investor. Our mission is to demystify the stock market and make financial literacy accessible to all self-directed investors! We teach complex investing topics in a different way - from "Her" perspective. Important Disclosures:
Investing involves risk. There is always potential to lose money when investing in securities. Market MakeHer LLC provides educational content and resources for informational purposes only. We are not registered financial advisors & do not provide personalized investment advice. Consult with a l...
How Does The Stock Market Perform During an Election Year? We are not getting political in this episode -- however, we are on a fact finding mission to understand if the stock market is. Let your fin-mom and fin-auntie break it down for you. 😉🔮
Does the U.S. Presidential election affect the stock market? Does the political party of the elected leader make a difference? Let's discuss, shallllll we? We're going to look at historical data going back to 1900 under each party and even drill down to the sectors.
Seasonality Happens Every Year, But Past Performance Is Not Indicative of Future Results 👻
There are 4 years in a U.S. Presidential cycle, the 4th year is positive for the stock market historically (S&P 500). Since 1928, the 4th year of an election cycle is up 73% of the time with a median return 9.5% - no matter who the political party is.
Does the political party in charge matter?
Looking at Democrat vs Republican, we go back to the 1900s when the DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) was created and see a very minimal difference whether Dem or Rep is in office. Clearly there’s no dispersion because the stock market relies on growth, but the outlier might be those instances when the political party of the president runs both the house and senate, the data changes a little, but overall, the outcome of the Presidential election does not really affect the stock market. The median annualized return every election year is 7.7% when a Democrat wins and 7.9% when a Republican wins, historically. Such a very small difference - make whatever conclusions from that you'd like. 😘
The Takeaway
Elections don’t really impact the stock market. There’s natural seasonality around the time of year Presidential elections take place, but the election itself and the outcome don’t make much of a difference. Time in the market is still your friend!! Stay consistent with how you invest and don’t be an emotional investor. Look at the overall stock market performance over a large span of time and you’ll see that there are always ups and downs, but when you stay invested for a long time your return inevitably goes up.
Check out this article Jess wrote for UK Money Week:
Ask Us a Question, Leave a Review, Follow, Subscribe:
🔗All Market MakeHer Links
👀 YouTube Channel
✨ Jess Inskip: TikTok Instagram
✨ Jessie DeNuit: TikTok Instagram Funny Finance Shirts and Merch
About Us 🌚🌞 Market MakeHer is an investing education podcast taught by a 15-year finance expert to her friend, a beginner investor. Our mission is to demystify the stock market and make financial literacy accessible to all self-directed investors! We teach complex investing topics in a different way - from "Her" perspective. Important Disclosures:
Investing involves risk. There is always potential to lose money when investing in securities. Market MakeHer LLC provides educational content and resources for informational purposes only. We are not registered financial advisors & do not provide personalized investment advice. Consult with a l...
Previous Episode
42. AI Under Power Grid Pressure: The Price to Energy Ratio Risk
In this episode we re-visit our AI Portfolio and Investment Thesis that we discussed back in Episode 21, but with a new emerging headwind. According to our very own Jess Inskip, "the real ‘P/E Risk’ isn't overhyped price to earnings. The risk is price to energy." (Get it? That's a P/E Ratio joke 👻)
AI Investing
Most of us are invested in AI, whether we know it or not, because the S&P 500 is mainly technology, and according to Yahoo Finance the S&P 500 is 31% technology, with 29.5% of that being only 7 stocks! (The Mag 7 or Magnificent 7)
How Much Electricity Does Generative AI Use?
Nvidia (NVDA) valuations are justified as the hyperscalers are top customers and we are seeing real earnings at incredible profit margins. The earnings potential makes sense. However, the energy consumption and subsequent pressure represents the real risk. Blackwell chips have not even made its way to market yet – each Blackwell AI GPU sold by Nvidia consumes up to 1200 watts of power, so 3.5mn of them would consume 1.8GW of power in the US alone. (Consensus estimates 3.5b in GPU sales by 2027).
Validate Your Investment Thesis (What you eat, eats.)
Look at the root of the problem with all of this AI grid pressure and see where the solutions might be (as in which companies are coming up with solutions for this bigger issue). "Sustainable AI" is still in its infancy, but maybe there are some companies out there that are using AI for good and to help come up with solutions to some of these issues?
AI Opportunities (but do your homework)
The grid pressure is a longer-term risk, it does not mean the AI story has peaked yet. AI build out cycle still in play: Opportunities still exist benefiting NVDA, AVGO, MRVL, AMD, and MU. Q1 earnings told us that capex spending is only increasing. Not adding more here, rather maintaining positioning. You can look into Copper and Uranium ETFs as well, just consider your personal ethics in investing and how that comes into play for you and which companies' success you truly want to be invested in (remember, when you buy a stock you are not giving money to the company directly,
Ask Us a Question, Leave a Review, Follow, Subscribe:
🔗All Market MakeHer Links
👀 YouTube Channel
✨ Jess Inskip: TikTok Instagram
✨ Jessie DeNuit: TikTok Instagram Funny Finance Shirts and Merch
About Us 🌚🌞 Market MakeHer is an investing education podcast taught by a 15-year finance expert to her friend, a beginner investor. Our mission is to demystify the stock market and make financial literacy accessible to all self-directed investors! We teach complex investing topics in a different way - from "Her" perspective. Important Disclosures:
Investing involves risk. There is always potential to lose money when investing in securities. Market MakeHer LLC provides educational content and resources for informational purposes only. We are not registered financial advisors & do not provide personalized investment advice. Consult with a l...
Next Episode
44. Replay: Where to invest first in your personal finance journey
Let's refresh and re-assess our financial planning goals for our future selves. You've budgeted, you've saved, you've looked at what you've got going on in your spending and bills and what you have left over - what do you do with that extra money? (Invest it, of course 👻)
*this is educational info, not advice - personal finance is personal, duh, and we don't know you're unique situation*
We're replaying our budgeting, savings, and investing episode because it's that time of year to assess your finances again and we're looking at our own finances again, so we thought we'd remind y'all to do the same!
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Market MakeHer is an investing education podcast taught by a 15-year finance expert to her friend who is a beginner investor. Our mission is to demystify the stock market and make financial literacy accessible to all self-directed investors! We believe that investing is for everyone and that's why we break down complex investing topics (from "Her" perspective), show you free tools/resources on our podcast, and offer a ton of free educational content
Ask Us a Question, Leave a Review, Follow, Subscribe:
🔗All Market MakeHer Links
👀 YouTube Channel
✨ Jess Inskip: TikTok Instagram
✨ Jessie DeNuit: TikTok Instagram Funny Finance Shirts and Merch
About Us 🌚🌞 Market MakeHer is an investing education podcast taught by a 15-year finance expert to her friend, a beginner investor. Our mission is to demystify the stock market and make financial literacy accessible to all self-directed investors! We teach complex investing topics in a different way - from "Her" perspective. Important Disclosures:
Investing involves risk. There is always potential to lose money when investing in securities. Market MakeHer LLC provides educational content and resources for informational purposes only. We are not registered financial advisors & do not provide personalized investment advice. Consult with a l...
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