#459 – DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters

02/03/25 • 316 min

11 Listeners

Dylan Patel is the founder of SemiAnalysis, a research & analysis company specializing in semiconductors, GPUs, CPUs, and AI hardware. Nathan Lambert is a research scientist at the Allen Institute for AI (Ai2) and the author of a blog on AI called Interconnects.
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Transcript:
https://lexfridman.com/deepseek-dylan-patel-nathan-lambert-transcript

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EPISODE LINKS:
Dylan’s X: https://x.com/dylan522p
SemiAnalysis: https://semianalysis.com/
Nathan’s X: https://x.com/natolambert
Nathan’s Blog: https://www.interconnects.ai/
Nathan’s Podcast: https://www.interconnects.ai/podcast
Nathan’s Website: https://www.natolambert.com/
Nathan’s YouTube: https://youtube.com/@natolambert
Nathan’s Book: https://rlhfbook.com/

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OUTLINE:
(00:00) – Introduction
(13:28) – DeepSeek-R1 and DeepSeek-V3
(35:02) – Low cost of training
(1:01:19) – DeepSeek compute cluster
(1:08:52) – Export controls on GPUs to China
(1:19:10) – AGI timeline
(1:28:35) – China’s manufacturing capacity
(1:36:30) – Cold war with China
(1:41:00) – TSMC and Taiwan
(2:04:38) – Best GPUs for AI
(2:19:30) – Why DeepSeek is so cheap
(2:32:49) – Espionage
(2:41:52) – Censorship
(2:54:46) – Andrej Karpathy and magic of RL
(3:05:17) – OpenAI o3-mini vs DeepSeek r1
(3:24:25) – NVIDIA
(3:28:53) – GPU smuggling
(3:35:30) – DeepSeek training on OpenAI data
(3:45:59) – AI megaclusters
(4:21:21) – Who wins the race to AGI?
(4:31:34) – AI agents
(4:40:16) – Programming and AI
(4:47:43) – Open source
(4:56:55) – Stargate
(5:04:24) – Future of AI

Transcript:
https://lexfridman.com/deepseek-dylan-patel-nathan-lambert-transcript

Previous Episode

#458 – Marc Andreessen: Trump, Power, Tech, AI, Immigration & Future of America

1 Recommendations

Marc Andreessen is an entrepreneur, investor, co-creator of Mosaic, co-founder of Netscape, and co-founder of the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz.
Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep458-sc
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Transcript:
https://lexfridman.com/marc-andreessen-2-transcript

EPISODE LINKS:
Marc’s X: https://x.com/pmarca
Marc’s Substack: https://pmarca.substack.com
Marc’s YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@a16z
Andreessen Horowitz: https://a16z.com

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OUTLINE:
(00:00) – Introduction
(12:46) – Best possible future
(22:09) – History of Western Civilization
(31:28) – Trump in 2025
(39:09) – TDS in tech
(51:56) – Preference falsification
(1:07:52) – Self-censorship
(1:22:55) – Censorship
(1:31:34) – Jon Stewart
(1:34:20) – Mark Zuckerberg on Joe Rogan
(1:43:09) – Government pressure
(1:53:57) – Nature of power
(2:06:45) – Journalism
(2:12:20) – Bill Ackman
(2:17:17) – Trump administration
(2:24:56) – DOGE
(2:38:48) – H1B and immigration
(3:16:42) – Little tech
(3:29:02) – AI race
(3:37:52) – X
(3:41:24) – Yann LeCun
(3:44:59) – Andrew Huberman
(3:46:30) – Success
(3:49:26) – God and humanity

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Next Episode

#460 – Narendra Modi: Prime Minister of India – Power, Democracy, War & Peace

1 Recommendations

Narendra Modi is the Prime Minister of India. On YouTube this episode is available in English, Hindi, Russian (and soon other languages). Captions and voice-over audio tracks are provided (for the main episode video on YouTube) in English, Hindi, Russian, and the original mixed-language version, with subtitles available in your preferred language. To listen to the original mixed-language version, please select the Hindi (Latin) audio track. The default is English overdub.
Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep460-sc
See below for timestamps, transcript, and to give feedback, submit questions, contact Lex, etc.

Transcript:
https://lexfridman.com/narendra-modi-transcript

EPISODE LINKS:
Narendra Modi’s X: https://x.com/narendramodi
Narendra Modi’s Instagram: https://instagram.com/narendramodi
Narendra Modi’s YouTube: https://youtube.com/narendramodi
Narendra Modi’s Website: https://narendramodi.in/

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OUTLINE:
(00:00) – Introduction
(17:24) – Fasting
(29:42) – Early life
(41:38) – Advice to Young People
(47:20) – Journey in the Himalayas
(58:50) – Becoming a monk
(1:00:37) – RSS and Hindu nationalism
(1:08:22) – Explaining India
(1:12:32) – Mahatma Gandhi
(1:24:27) – Path to peace in Ukraine
(1:27:41) – India and Pakistan
(1:33:21) – Cricket and Football
(1:37:45) – Donald Trump
(1:48:56) – China and Xi Jinping
(1:56:01) – Gujarat riots in 2002
(2:11:37) – Biggest democracy in the world
(2:21:53) – Power
(2:26:39) – Hard work
(2:29:46) – Srinivasa Ramanujan
(2:31:53) – Decision-making process
(2:39:40) – AI
(2:49:55) – Education
(3:00:10) – Learning and focus
(3:06:01) – Mantra
(3:07:45) – Meditation
(3:13:43) – Lex visiting India
(3:18:08) – Siddhartha