Kellogg's Global Politics

We begin with the latest updates on the Russia-Ukraine War and how Russia’s sheer numbers in manpower might help it regain momentum. We also discuss the debate over whether the US should support a Ukrainian offense in Crimea and why Western sanctions on Russia have had an underwhelming effect on the Russian economy and its ability to wage war.

One of the biggest stories in the US this week was the discovery of a Chinese surveillance balloon. We discuss this and the news of the US expanding its military presence in the Philippines. We wrap up by talking about US hopes to divert its supply chains from China to its allies.

Finally, we cover the latest Israeli strike on Iran and how Israel - Iran relations are likely to fare under the new Netanyahu administration.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• [06:30] Russia-Ukraine Update: Sanction Failures and Crimea End Game
• [33:30] Chinese Balloon Drama and US Alliance Building in Asia
• [57:30] Israel Strikes Iran and the Prospects for War

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Russia-Ukraine Update: Sanction Failures and Crimea End Game

• Ukraine Fears New Offensive Is Underway as Russia Masses Troops (NY Times)
• Russian Crude Trade Moves Deep Into the Shadows (Energy Intel)
• Russia Sidesteps Western Punishments, With Help From Friends (NY Times)
• What Ukraine Needs to Liberate Crimea (Foreign Affairs- Alexander Vindman)
• The Case for Caution on Crimea (War on the Rocks- James Acton)

Chinese Balloon Drama and US Alliance Building in Asia

• Chinese Spy Balloon or ‘Civilian Device’? (NY Times)
• China’s suspected spy balloon is the perfect symbol of its clumsiness (WaPo)
• Biden Aims to Deter China With Greater U.S. Military Presence in Philippines (NY Times)
• U.S. Pursues India as a Supply-Chain Alternative to China (WSJ)

Israel Strikes Iran and the Prospects for War

• The U.S.-Israel military simulation is a show of force to Iran (WaPo)
• Iran blames Is

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In this episode, we discuss the latest updates on the Russia-Ukraine war, in particular Russia’s mobilization of an additional 300,000 troops from a partial draft. Putin has also revived his nuclear weapons threats. We explain why we should take them seriously.

Britain has a new Prime Minister who has proposed a very controversial budget that combines tax cuts with increased government spending. We discuss this issue in the context of Britain’s long-term economic decline.

Finally, this week has seen widespread protests throughout Iran. We explain the cause and significance of these protests, as well as the latest status on a new nuclear deal with Iran.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• Anita’s trip to the American Political Science Association (APSA) Conference
• Russian Mobilization and the Nuclear Threat - 07:00
• UK Budget and the Market’s Reaction - 27:00
• Iranian Protests and Nuclear Deal Update - 50:00

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Russian Mobilization and the Nuclear Threat

• Putin’s Draft Draws Resistance in Russia’s Far-Flung Regions (NY Times)
• Memo to the President (The Atlantic Council)
• Escalation Management and Nuclear Employment in Russian Military Strategy (War on the Rocks)

UK Budget and the Market’s Reaction

• What kind of prime minister will Liz Truss be? (The Economist)
• Britain’s chancellor offers up a reckless budget, fiscally and politically (The Economist)
• Pound plummets to 37-year low as Kwarteng unveils ‘growth plan’ for UK economy (Independent)

Iranian Protests and Nuclear Deal Update

• What’s behind the protests in Iran? (WaPo)
• The Supreme Leader is Still Alive, but When he dies how will his succession play out? (The Atlantic Council)
• Let’s Be Honest About the Iran Nuclear Deal (Foreign Policy)

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On this episode, Anita interviews Dawn Murphy, an Associate Professor of National Security Strategy at the US National War College, specializing in research on China and the Global South. We talk about China’s Belt and Road Project, its relationships in the Middle East, and China’s use of multilateral organizations.

We begin the episode by discussing the recent Turkish elections, where hopes were high for the opposition to oust the autocratic President Erdogan. As the country heads to a runoff, what are the odds of the opposition succeeding?

Biden attended the G7 meeting in Japan but cut the rest of the trip short to deal with the debt crisis at home. What does this say about US commitments in the Pacific and the confidence of these nations in dealing with the United States?

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 00:00 Anita takes on Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom
• 04:00 Turkish elections
• 19:00 G7 Meeting in Hiroshima and US Debt Crisis Distraction
• 36:00 Interview with Dawn Murphy: China and the Global South

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Turkish Elections

• Four Takeaways From Turkey’s Nail-Biting Presidential Election (NY Times)
• Erdogan triumphed by vowing to Make Turkey Great Again (WaPo)
• Here’s How to Read Turkey’s Election Results—So Far (Council of Foreign Relations)

G7 Meeting and US Debt Crisis Distraction

• Can the West win over the rest of the world? (The Economist)
• The debt ceiling crisis is distracting Biden from his geopolitical agenda (Financial Times)
• To Counter China, G7 Countries Borrow Its Economic Playbook (NY Times)

Talking China in the Global South with Dawn Murphy

• National Defense University
• China’s Rise in the Global South
• Twitter (@DawnMurphyChina)

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On this episode, Anita speaks with Bates Gill, the Executive Director of the Center for China Analysis with the Asia Society Policy Institute. We discuss the troubling aspects of China’s military modernization, the rise of military-industrial technocrats to leadership positions in the Communist Party, and the importance of understanding China from the inside out.

We begin the show with an update on the Russia-Ukraine war, focusing on the recent intelligence leaks. We also consider whether there are limits in the West’s support to the Ukrainian war effort.

China is not the only country talking about a multipolar world. We discuss Macron’s infamous trip to China and his attempt to carve out a unique foreign policy agenda for Europe while setting himself up to be a distinguished statesman. Brazil’s president, Lulu, also visited with Xi this week with proposals for a closer relationship with China and restoration of the BRICS power bloc of developing nations.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 04:30 Russia-Ukraine War: DoD leak revelations
• 32:00 Macron and Lulu meet with Xi
• 54:00 Interview with Dr. Bates Gill from the Asia Society Policy Institute

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Russia-Ukraine War: DoD leak revelations

• The West Needs a New Strategy in Ukraine (Foreign Affairs-Haas and Kupchan)
• Russia’s commando units gutted by Ukraine war, U.S. leak shows (WaPo)
• A Quick Guide to What the Leaked U.S. Intelligence Documents Say (NY Times)

Macron and Lulu meet with Xi

• From Red Carpet to Doghouse: Macron Returns From China to Allied Dismay (NY Times)
• Europe must resist pressure to become ‘America’s followers,’ says Macron (Politico)
• Emmanuel Macron’s blunder over Taiwan (The Economist)
• French Diplomacy Undercuts U.S. Efforts to Rein China In (NY Times)
• Brazil’s foreign policy is hyperactive, ambitious and naive (The Economist)

Interview with Dr. Bates Gill from the Asia Society Policy Institute

• Asia Society Policy Institute
• Twitter (@batesgill1)
• Daring to Struggle: China's

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Welcome to the official launch of our podcast on global affairs. In this episode, we discuss recent international news stories, beginning with the decision to increase the oil supply and its impact on inflation. We also cover Biden’s Democracy Summit and the diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics by the United States. We then turn to a more in-depth conversation on the implications of the build-up of 175,000 Russian troops along the Ukraine-Russia border. Additionally, Anita discusses her new role as a Brzezinski Postdoctoral Fellow in Foreign Policy and National Security at John Hopkins (SAIS)’s Foreign Policy Institute in Washington DC.

Timestamps:

• 5:30 Inflation and OPEC+ decision on production quotas
• 12:00 Biden’s Democracy Summit
• 20:30 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics and the Diplomatic Boycott
• 32:00 Russian troop build-up at the Ukrainian Border

Articles Mentioned in Episode

OPEC+ Decision on Production Quotas

• OPEC+ output hike gamble pays off as oil prices recover (Reuters)

Democracy Summit

• Global Views of Biden’s Democracy Summit (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
• Ahead of Biden’s Democracy Summit, China Says: We’re Also a Democracy (NY Times)
• Why China Is Freaking Out Over Biden’s Democracy Summit (Foreign Policy)

2022 Beijing Winter Olympics and the Diplomatic Boycott

• Do boycotts of sports events, such as the Beijing winter Olympics, work? (The Economist)
• What the US’s diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Beijing Olympics does — and doesn’t — mean (Vox)

Russia-Ukraine Crisis

• Wait, is Russia going to invade Ukraine? (Vox)
• How the United States Can Break Putin’s Hold on Ukraine (Alexander Vindman; NY Times)
• How might allies respond if Russia invades Ukraine? (Defense News)
• The US can't deter a Russian invasion of Ukraine — and shouldn't even try (The Hill)
• Ukraine: Putin’s Unfinished Business (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)

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