Pandemic Politics - Voters Support Another Month of Lockdown

Host: presidential pollster Mark Penn
Subject: findings of newest Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll
Download full report: bit.ly/HarvardHarrisApr16Follow @Mark_Penn_Polls on Twitter

These and more issues are touched in this rich and fascinating poll on Americans' views. As always, please don’t hesitate to reach out with questions and suggestions.

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Previous Episode

New COVID-19 Poll Shows Dramatic Shift in Public Opinion

A new Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, which was fielded last week on March 24-26 among 2,410 registered voters, illustrates major change in public opinion regarding the Coronavirus Pandemic.
We have seen some dramatic shifts in economic confidence in our poll – most strikingly the perceived strength of the U.S. economy fell by 30 points to 45% net strong among voters. A majority now expect a recession in the next six months and 4 in 10 now say their personal financial situation is getting worse. Democrats are particularly hit here with 49% saying their situation is getting worse.
As might be expected, tackling the coronavirus is the top issue in the country, followed by health care and economy and jobs. 58% of voters say they want to balance minimizing infections with preserving jobs and the economy.
It remains a country with a big partisan divide, though 50% approve of President Trump’s handling of the crisis and half say the measures to control the virus have been reasonable so far, with another 4 in 10 saying they are not strict enough.
Most voters see politics as usual rather than national unity and voters are more likely to think Democrats are playing political games in handling the crisis. 60% said Pelosi’s actions have been partisan while half of voters saw Trump’s actions as balanced. As of the time of the poll the stimulus bill was still in flight, and voters were four more times as likely to support the stimulus bill than not, with 45% still waiting to learn more about what was in it.
Trump’s overall approval edged up to 48 percent with 72 per cent seeing or hearing about his briefings and most seeing them as positive.
Americans remain optimistic, with 79% saying the US will overcome the coronavirus in reasonable time. When asked what that time will be, a majority expect a return to normalcy between 3-12 months.
I welcome you to dig deeply into this rich poll on the coronavirus and the reporting on the 2020 implications of the crisis, including voters’ fears to vote in a primary election these days and their openness to voting by mail or electronic means in November.
As always, feel free to send me any questions. And you can follow my podcast on the poll at SoundCloud (full episode) or any of the following channels: @iHeartRadio, @ApplePodcasts, @Spotify, @Stitcher,@Google, @SoundCloud, @RadioPublic, @Tunein,

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Harvard CAPS - Harris Poll Deep Dive with Mark Penn (May, 2020)

Presidential Pollster Mark Penn (@Mark_Penn_Polls) shares analysis of a new Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, fielded May 14-16 among 1,854 registered voters.

Download Report: bit.ly/PDF_HHPoll_May

Here are the important topics of the day as the voters see them:

VOTER MOOD – America is concerned and uncertain about re-opening, and voters are looking for leadership and unity. 68% are most concerned about opening up too soon compared to 32% who are primarily concerned about economic damage and hardship. We see some stark demographic differences in the answer to this question, with Democrats and urban demographics being most concerned about re-opening too soon, and Republicans and rural demographics the least. Overall, 85% of voters believe we should continue shelter in place practices for at least another month. And three-quarters of voters want another stimulus bill, with 64% preferring it be passed immediately and 59% saying we should pass all the proposed stimulus elements even if it has a price tag of $3 trillion. However, voters do not want stimulus money to be earmarked for undocumented immigrants.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE – confidence in the economy continues to decrease, with a majority voters believing the country will be in a recession 6 months from now and less than 1 in 3 thinking the US economy is strong and trending in the right direction. However, the number of voters who say their economic situation is declining has peaked, down just three points month-over-month suggesting that the worst impact may be over.

MANAGING THE CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK – Given the economic confidence and uncertainty about reopening, it is no surprise that the administration’s job approval in handling the coronavirus is down 5 points month-over-month, from 51% in April to 46% this month. However, the numbers could shift yet again: voters believe all major institutions are functioning, with the White House receiving the highest score at 80%. And President Trump continues to receive majority approval in managing the economy and stimulating jobs.

MICHAEL FLYNN CASE – Voters are split in their support of the justice department dropping the case against Michael Flynn, and in general less than half know what Flynn was charged about. When prompted with details from the DOJ’s decision to drop the case, a majority support the dropping of the charges. But a majority also believe the FBI had reason to investigate Michael Flynn, and that it was right for President Obama to know about an FBI investigation into the national security adviser of the incoming administration and to be briefed on his conversations. Worryingly, a small majority also believe Obama administration officials conspired to leak news of intercepted conversations between Michael Flynn and Russian officials to discredit and have Flynn fired or not.

TARA READE/ BIDEN ALLEGATIONS – There is widespread awareness of the sexual harassment allegation towards Joe Biden, with a slight majority of voters believing the accusations. However, 6 in 10 voters claim this allegation has no effect on their likelihood to vote for Biden.

2020 ELECTION – Interest in the election remains strong, with 77% of voters indicating they are very likely to vote. Biden continues to lead Trump in a head-to-head match-up; among likely voters in our poll, Trump collects 43% of the vote, Biden 47%, with independent candidates at 6% and the unsure vote at 5%. When given a forced choice between the two, 53% of likely voters select Biden and 47% Trump, indicating that the remaining vote breaks in favor of Biden.

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