Harvard Harris Poll Debrief with Mark Penn and Bob Cusack

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Harvard Harris Poll Debrief with Mark Penn and Bob Cusack

11/12/19 • 2 min

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Pandemic Politics - Voters Support Another Month of Lockdown

Harvard Harris Poll Debrief with Mark Penn and Bob Cusack

04/21/20 • 32 min

Host: presidential pollster Mark Penn
Subject: findings of newest Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll
Download full report: bit.ly/HarvardHarrisApr16Follow @Mark_Penn_Polls on Twitter

The poll, fielded April 14-16 among 2,394 registered voters, shows Americans changing from concerned purely about the virus to greater concern about the economy. Focusing on the economy and jobs is gaining in salience -- this is now the second most important issue in the country (41% of voters) after the management of the coronavirus crisis (the top issue for voters, at 63%). Four in 10 voters report their financial situation is getting worse (a 20 point jump since January); and only 32% say the economy is on the right track (down from 51% in January).

Americans back the current lockdown in overwhelming numbers, and a majority thinks it should continue for about a month. Americans are optimistic about overcoming the virus and getting back to normal.

President Trump’s approval stands at 49%, tied for a record high in our poll. Fifty-one percent approve of his work on the virus, slightly up. Voters continue to approve of his stewardship of the economy. He trails Joe Biden in the horserace for re-election but the race is within a few points among likely voters.

Overall, voters believe President Trump and Congress should pass another stimulus bill, with the majority believing the bill should help fund small business loans and struggling hospitals, but not other priorities. Nearly all voters today agree that sufficient protective materials for healthcare workers and social distance orders for at-risk populations are necessary steps before re-opening the economy.

Voters are not happy over the partisanship around the coronavirus response. However, most now see Trump as acting more out of national interest and 60% see Nancy Pelosi as acting out of partisanship. For the first time Republicans have an image equal to or better than Democrats as a party.

Fifty-six percent believe individual states should make their own decisions about the response to the crisis and 61% want individual states to be in charge of the decision to ease social distancing and remove restrictions to reopen the US economy.

These and more issues are touched in this rich and fascinating poll on Americans' views. As always, please don’t hesitate to reach out with questions and suggestions.

You can follow my podcast on the poll at SoundCloud (full episode) or any of the following channels: @iHeartRadio, @ApplePodcasts, @Spotify, @Stitcher,@Google, @SoundCloud, @RadioPublic, @Tunein, @Castbox_fm, @Overcast, @Castro.

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Mayor Pete

Harvard Harris Poll Debrief with Mark Penn and Bob Cusack

04/15/19 • 0 min

Mayor Pete is definitely surging in the polls. Buttigieg has come on from nowhere, to between 9% and 11% in Iowa and New Hampshire polls that have just come out. And as a Midwestern mayor, he could play very powerfully in the Iowa primary. Certainly, he's got early appeal. He could be that magic candidate coming down to this primary. We've been looking. There are a couple of front runners, but they're front runners who ran last time. They might be overtaken by an insurgent candidacy, and this could be it.

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Most Americans Believe Russia is Meddling in 2020 Election

Harvard Harris Poll Debrief with Mark Penn and Bob Cusack

03/11/20 • 2 min

FOLLOW @Mark_Penn_Polls on Twitter.
REGISTER for the next Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll ... it's FREE.
The latest Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll surveyed 2,592 voters from February 26-28, 2020.
A majority of voters say they believe there is evidence Russia is trying to interfere in the 2020 election.
We took the public's opinion on President Trump's recent provocative comments and tweets directed toward his own Attorney General and Justice Department.
On the 2020 horserace, we asked Democrats about candidate characteristics and where each candidate is strongest (table here). Among Democrats, Sanders and Biden are seen as the strongest overall candidates to compete against Trump.
The poll ran as the coronavirus market sell-off began, and at the time voters remained bullish about the state of the economy even though early warning signs of the anxieties of coronavirus were starting to show.
We saw a 6 point jump in the number of voters who expected a recession (from 31% in January to 37% in late February) and while 70 percent of voters said the economy was strong, that measure was also down 4 points month over month.
Trump approval at the onset of the correction remained in the higher range for him at forty-seven percent, but with 37% of voters saying they own publicly traded stock outside of their retirement accounts, expect the anxiety to start impacting the political landscape.
Overall, voters are split on whether the US will be able to contain coronavirus (52% 'no' / 48% 'yes') and 82 percent support the quarantine of small or large US cities if the virus hits some areas hard. 79% also support halting immigration to the US if the virus becomes a pandemic.
The poll also features fresh polling on the Iran nuclear deal, sanctuary cities, the public charge immigration rule, and Trump’s comments on DOJ cases.

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October 2023 Harvard Harris Poll

Harvard Harris Poll Debrief with Mark Penn and Bob Cusack

10/20/23 • 22 min

OCTOBER HARVARD CAPS / HARRIS POLL: STRONG MAJORITIES OF AMERICANS SUPPORT ISRAEL AGAINST HAMAS AND U.S. POLICY ON ISRAEL

48% OF 18–24-YEAR-OLDS SIDE MORE WITH HAMAS; WAR VIEWS DEFINED BY GENERATIONS, NOT PARTY

BIDEN APPROVAL RISES ON ISRAEL RESPONSE

NEW YORK and CAMBRIDGE, Mass. – Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the October Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.

Israel receives overwhelming support from Americans: 84% of voters support Israel over Hamas and 88% believe Israel has a right to respond militarily against Hamas. President Joe Biden edges up to 44% approval as 58% approve of the job he is doing on Israel. Republicans in Congress have hurt themselves significantly in the breakdown over the Speaker of the House as Congressional and Republican ratings sink. Download key results here.

“Americans strongly support Israel against Hamas’ terrorist attacks by 80 percent or more. However, there is a split not among the parties but among the generations as 95% of seniors support Israel while support drops to only 52% among the youngest voter group,” said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. “President Biden’s vocal support of Israel is winning approval from both sides, while the Republicans’ chaos in the House is doing the opposite.”

AMERICANS OVERWHELMINGLY SUPPORT ISRAELAND ITS RIGHT TO RESPOND TO HAMAS ATTACKS

• 84% of voters side more with Israel than with Hamas (ages 18-24: 52%; ages 65+: 95%).

• 88% of voters think Israel has the responsibility to protect its citizens by retaliating against Hamas (ages 18-24: 65%; ages 65+: 97%).

• 84% of voters believe Israel has the right to defend itself by launching air strikes in heavily populated Palestinian areas with warnings to those citizens (ages 18-24: 62%; ages 65+: 93%).

• 70% of voters think Israel should eliminate Hamas, not end its campaign against Hamas now (ages 18-24: 48%; ages 65+: 82%).

• 63% of voters believe it was right for Israel to cut off power, water and food to Gaza until its hostages are returned (ages 18-24: 41%; ages 65+: 70%).

• 61% of voters say there is no moral equivalency between Hamas’ murders and Israel’s actions (ages 18-24: 36% – the majority believe both sides have equally just causes; ages 65+: 80%).

SIGNIFICANT NUMBERS OF YOUNG VOTERS HAVE THEIR OWN FACTS, DENY ATROCITIES COMMITTED

• 17% of voters think it is a false story that Hamas terrorists killed 1200 Israeli civilians by shooting, raping and beheading people (ages 18-24: 32%; ages 65+: 10%).

• 46% of voters say that Israel, not Hamas, rules Gaza (ages 18-24: 53%; ages 65+: 32%).

• 33% of voters think the explosion at a Gaza hospital explosion was caused by an Israeli airstrike rather than a terrorist rocket that went off-course (ages 18-24: 45%; ages 65+: 13%).

BIDEN GETS GOOD RATINGS ON ISRAEL POLICY AS VOTERS THINK U.S. HAS RESPONSIBILITY TO HELP

• 58% of voters approve of Biden’s foreign policy on Israel(ages 18-24: 52%; ages 65+: 61%).

• 64% of voters say the U.S. has a responsibility to militarily support Israel while it is under attack by terrorist groups(ages 18-24: 49%; ages 65+: 70%).

• While Biden did not mention the U.S. hostages in his October 19 Oval Office address, 71% of voters think the U.S. has the responsibility to bring to safety the over a dozen Americans abducted by Hamas (ages 18-24: 42%; ages 65+: 81%).

• 59% of voters say the U.S. should directly intervene if Iran attacks Israel (ages 18-24: 40%; ages 65+: 64%).

REPUBLICAN VOTERS DISAPPROVE OF MCCARTHY OUSTER

• 62% of GOP voters say the Republicans who ousted McCarthy are hurting the Republican Party.

• 57% of GOP voters say that if House Republicans cannot elect another speaker before government funding runs out in 30 days, they should find a different candidate other than McCarthy.

TRUMP LEADS THREE-WAY RACE WITH BIDEN AND RFK JR.

• Donald Trump continues to lead the GOP primary race with 60% support.

• Trump continues to lead Biden in a head-to-head contest, 46% to 41%.

• Trump also leads in a three-way race against Biden and RFK Jr., 39% to 33% to 19%, respectively.

The October Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on October 18-19, 2023, among 2,116 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS Harris poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podca...

CNN Hands Trump Two Points, Debt Ceiling Frustration, Durham Report Confusion

Harvard Harris Poll Debrief with Mark Penn and Bob Cusack

05/19/23 • 19 min

Harris Poll Chairman Mark Penn and The Hill Editor in Chief Bob Cusack dissect and interpret findings of the May Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, conducted May 17-18, 2023, among 2,004 registered voters.

Donald Trump now beats Joe Biden by 7 points in a 2024 presidential matchup. Meanwhile half of voters have heard of the Durham report on the FBI’s investigation of Trump and Russia, but they seem confused about its contents, as half mistakenly thought the report said the FBI investigation was well-founded.

TRUMP CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AFTER CNN TOWN HALL

Trump now beats Biden in a 2024 general election by 7 points, 47-40.
Trump stretched his lead in a GOP primary to 58% and Biden stretched his lead in a Democratic primary to 41%.

VOTERS SEEM CONFUSED BY DURHAM REPORT ON FBI’S TRUMP INVESTIGATION

Half of voters, evenly split across parties, have heard of the Durham report on the FBI’s Trump-Russia probe.
But Americans are confused about the Durham report’s conclusion: half of voters, including 72% of Democrats, believed the report said the FBI’s Trump investigation was well-founded, even though it said the opposite.
52% of voters believe the Durham report was a fair examination, although 57% of Democrats said it was fair and 54% of Republicans said it was biased.
70% of Democrats still believe Trump worked in concert with Russia to win the presidency and 71% believe the Steele dossier was a true story.

MAJORITY OF VOTERS ACROSS ALL PARTIES WANT STRICTER IMMIGRATION POLICIES

71% of voters, split evenly across the parties, have heard of the repeal of Title 42, a COVID-era immigration regulation that allowed the U.S. government to send those who attempted to cross the southern border illegally to Mexico to wait for a court date.
54% of voters – including 67% of Democrats and 46% of Republicans – support the repeal of Title 42.
53% of voters now think the Biden administration is just trying to enforce immigration laws more humanely, rather than creating an open border (which a majority of voters thought in December).
But only 38% of voters approve of Biden’s handling of immigration, down 2 points from last month.

VOTERS CONTINUE TO WANT DEBT CEILING NEGOTIATIONS

35% of voters, up 6 points from last month, now think Biden has signaled willingness to curb spending in the next year.
Voters continue to want Democrats to cave and negotiate on the debt ceiling to prevent a default: 57% say so, up 2 points from last month.
As default looms, 70% of voters, up 6 points from last month, now think default would be a huge issue.

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Trump Job Approval & Overall Mood of the Country

Harvard Harris Poll Debrief with Mark Penn and Bob Cusack

01/13/20 • 11 min

In late December, December 27th to 29th, we interviewed 2010 registered voters by the Harris Poll. The findings also include a flash poll among 1273 registered voters conducted December 30th to 31st. These polls were conducted just before the raid on the Iranian general. If that's changed things, we won't know that until the next poll. But until then, I think that you see a pretty good picture of how America was feeling during this holiday period.
Let's take a look at Trump's approval. Obviously, President Trump was impeached just before the holidays. That impeachment has been held up at this point, not yet sent over to the Senate. The impact of impeachment on his job approval was nothing. He was at 47% in November. In late December, he is at 47%. 47% is among some of the higher ratings. He's typically been 44, 45. He's gotten as high as 48. He has not crossed into majority approval since he took office. And the trend here is from June, when he was at 44, to two months at 45, two months at 46 and now two months at 47% approval. Disapproval mirrors it. It's at 53%. Again, down from 56 in May or June; 55, 54 and now 53.
We go a little deeper and look at the president's approval by some of the various issue areas. His lowest approval has always been administering the government, 44%, basically unchanged over a long period of time. Foreign affairs, 46%; immigration, 48%; fighting terrorism, 55; stimulating jobs, 59; the economy, 60. The two areas that have moved over time, the economy and stimulating jobs. The others have been relatively stable overtime.
Is the country on the right track or the wrong track? Not a lot of change here recently. We're at 39% right track. Again, higher numbers. We started at 34%. We're still at 53% wrong track, not a lot of movement here. Again, we were as low as 29 if you go back to October of 17 when the country felt that there was tremendous gridlock, in particular the healthcare issue. These are slightly better numbers, but still it's been a long time since most Americans think their country is on the right track.
Now, where is there change and significant change? We asked the question, "Do you think the American economy is on the right track or the wrong track?" Right track is now 51%, wrong track is 36%. We've had a spread this big only once before, it was December of 17. You see a very clear pattern here. Remember that just a few months ago, let's call it four or five, six months ago, the Fed was raising interest rates. Economists were predicting a recession. Right track economy actually dipped below wrong track again over the summer. It was 46% wrong track, 43% right track.
Today, there's been a consistent improvement in attitudes towards how the economy's doing across almost all demographics. It is now 51% right track on the economy, 36% wrong track. Americans may not be happy with the direction of their country, but they are happy with the direction of the economy.
A slightly different question shows the same pattern. How strong do you think the US economy is today? And those people who think that it's strong is now up to 75%. That is a record in our poll. It was as high as 74% before all the talk about recession the previous spring. It started out at 61%. There is no question about that, a very, very significant movement. And for the first time, those who say that the economy is weak is down to 25%.

CNN Hands Trump Two Points, Debt Ceiling Frustration, Durham Report Confusion

Harvard Harris Poll Debrief with Mark Penn and Bob Cusack

05/19/23 • 19 min

TRUMP CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AFTER CNN TOWN HALL

Trump now beats Biden in a 2024 general election by 7 points, 47-40.
Trump stretched his lead in a GOP primary to 58% and Biden stretched his lead in a Democratic primary to 41%.

VOTERS SEEM CONFUSED BY DURHAM REPORT ON FBI’S TRUMP INVESTIGATION

Half of voters, evenly split across parties, have heard of the Durham report on the FBI’s Trump-Russia probe.
But Americans are confused about the Durham report’s conclusion: half of voters, including 72% of Democrats, believed the report said the FBI’s Trump investigation was well-founded, even though it said the opposite.
52% of voters believe the Durham report was a fair examination, although 57% of Democrats said it was fair and 54% of Republicans said it was biased.
70% of Democrats still believe Trump worked in concert with Russia to win the presidency and 71% believe the Steele dossier was a true story.

MAJORITY OF VOTERS ACROSS ALL PARTIES WANT STRICTER IMMIGRATION POLICIES

71% of voters, split evenly across the parties, have heard of the repeal of Title 42, a COVID-era immigration regulation that allowed the U.S. government to send those who attempted to cross the southern border illegally to Mexico to wait for a court date.
54% of voters – including 67% of Democrats and 46% of Republicans – support the repeal of Title 42.
53% of voters now think the Biden administration is just trying to enforce immigration laws more humanely, rather than creating an open border (which a majority of voters thought in December).
But only 38% of voters approve of Biden’s handling of immigration, down 2 points from last month.

VOTERS CONTINUE TO WANT DEBT CEILING NEGOTIATIONS

35% of voters, up 6 points from last month, now think Biden has signaled willingness to curb spending in the next year.
Voters continue to want Democrats to cave and negotiate on the debt ceiling to prevent a default: 57% say so, up 2 points from last month.
As default looms, 70% of voters, up 6 points from last month, now think default would be a huge issue.

Public Opinion of President Biden "Cementing", According to New Harvard Harris Poll

Harvard Harris Poll Debrief with Mark Penn and Bob Cusack

12/07/21 • 23 min

Each month, Harris Poll Chairman Mark Penn and Bob Cusack, Editor in Chief of The Hill, discuss findings from the latest Harvard-Harris Poll, a collaboration with the Center for American Political Studies.
The latest poll was conducted November 27-28 among more than 2,000 registered voters nationwide.
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Mark Penn:

Welcome to the podcast with Mark Penn and Bob Cusack, editor in chief of The Hill and we're going to discuss this month's Harvard CAPS Harris Poll that's just come out of the field with almost 2,000 interviews and I think it's going to be a provocative discussion as public opinion in the United States continues to harden, mostly against the administration. Particularly as the virus is seen as growing and the economy is seen as sinking.

Bob Cusack:

So Mark, if you had one word to really capture this month's polling, what would it be?

Mark Penn:

The word would be "cementing". The negative attitudes towards the administration are now being set as set as immigration, crime, core issues, now also next to that are the economy and the virus is going up, producing a negative mood and the gap in the leadership the people are looking for. These negative ratings that we saw during the summer that happened during Afghanistan have really cemented now and that's going to mean real problems for the democrats and this administration unless they act and act in a really big way.

Bob Cusack:

What was the most surprising thing? Because there's a lot of data here, there's presidential, there's virus data. What surprised you the most this month?

Mark Penn:

I was surprised most by the fact that the public mood is turning so sour in such a short period of time. This is almost a repeat of what happened with Obama but almost to a greater swing where there was so much promise, we have a democratic president, we're no longer governed by Trump, it's a new day, the economy is tooling along. All of those things looked so great in the spring and now the public is like my situation is getting worse, they see inflation, the economy is on the wrong track, they don't like the president, they're turning on the democratic party, a little bit on the republican. I mean it's just a sour mood out there. And as you know, when the public mood is sour, incumbents better watch out.

Bob Cusack:

That's right. I mean we're seeing a lot of democrats retire instead of seek re-election. That's always a telling sign that the party is not going to do that great going into the midterm. The virus is back as a top issue. And you really have to, sometimes, step back also. I know we do this every month, but we're still in the first year of the Biden presidency. And I know honeymoons don't last forever and Joe Biden's honeymoon is way over. But aren't these bad numbers? Again, they were good earlier this year and we talked about that. But for a first year president, these numbers are kind of troubling, aren't they?

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