Future Now

Our guest is Professor Neil Kraus from the University of Wisconsin-River Falls, the author of "The Fantasy Economy: Neoliberalism, Inequality, and the Education Reform Movement" In this episode, Marina Gorbis and Neil discuss the long-standing economic myths, diminishing returns on educational investments, the surplus of degree holders in low-wage job markets, and the misleading narrative of labor shortages. The Fantasy Economy: https://tupress.temple.edu/books/the-fantasy-economy Institute for the Future: https://iftf.org

Institute for the Future researchers Mark Frauenfelder and David Pescovitz talk with Murray Robinson, founder of Molquant, about new tools designed to make sense of the big data within the human genome.

In 2016 , the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists released The Panama Papers — a massive cache of 11.5 million records leaked from the law firm Mossack Fonseca — revealing that several heads of state have been sheltering their personal wealth in offshore accounts to evade taxes. This wasn’t surprising, after all dictators are known for draining public coffers and hoarding the ill-gotten funds in secret accounts. What’s more disturbing is learning that well-known global corporations and civic leaders have been doing the same thing for decades, and getting away with it. Mossack Fonseca specializes in setting up untraceable shell companies. There’s nothing overtly illegal about them, but they’re often used by political and financial elites to hide assets, dodge taxes, and launder money. Creating shell companies is a big business, and Mossack Fonseca is just one of many firms that do it. The Financial Accountability and Corporate Transparency Coalition says shell companies house up to $21 trillion globally. (By way of comparison, the US gross domestic product for 2015 was $18 trillion.) The firms employing the services of Mossack Fonseca include a rogues’ gallery of brand name corporations with a track record of breaking financial regulations with virtual impunity. Remember back in 2013 when HSBC was slapped with a $1.9 billion fine by the U.S. Justice Department for laundering drug cartel money? Its fine amounted to less than one tenth of its annual profits. And remember when UBS was caught in 2012 spreading false information to manipulate banking exchange rates? It was fined $1.5 billion, which sounds like a lot, until you learn that UBS’ revenues are almost $40 billion a year. Both banks are clients of Mossack Fonseca. The reason banks and financial institutions are ignoring regulations comes down to simple economics. The organized criminal economy is over $2 trillion a year, and someone has to launder it, says journalist Drew Sullivan, co-founder and editor of the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) and a 2014 Institute for the Future (IFTF) Fellow. “You can either be a bank that takes that money or a bank that doesn’t take that money. Because nobody is penalizing you seriously for this, and nobody holds it against you, you don’t get a reputation of being a bad bank, and you can keep doing this.” These slap-on-the-wrist fines are simply the cost of doing business, says Sullivan, who compares the bank’s criminal behavior to the Koch Brothers’modus operandi: violate sanctions and fight the fines in court for as long as possible. “It’s a risk minimization plan, rather than honorable business,” he says. I interviewed Sullivan in 2016 shortly after the release of the Panama Papers.

Over the next decade, today's connected world will be explosively more connected. Anything that can be distributed will be distributed: workforces, organizations, supply webs, and more. The tired practices of centralized organizations will become brittle in a future where authority is radically decentralized. Rigid hierarchies will give way to liquid structures. Most leaders—and most organizations—aren't ready for this future. Are you? It's too late to catch up, but it's a great time to leapfrog. Noted IFTF futurist Bob Johansen goes beyond skills and competencies to propose five new leadership literacies—combinations of disciplines, practices, and worldviews—that will be needed to thrive in a VUCA world of increasing volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. This book shows how to (1) forecast likely futures so you can “look back” and make sure you're prepared now for the changes to come, (2) use low-risk gaming spaces to work through your concerns about the future and hone your leadership skills, (3) lead shape-shifting organizations where you can't just tell people what to do, (4) be a dynamic presence even when you're not there in person, and (5) keep your personal energy high and transmit that energy throughout your organization. We spoke to Bob about his visionary book, which provides a vivid description of the ideal talent profile for future leaders. It is written for current, rising star, and aspiring leaders; talent scouts searching for leaders; and executive coaches seeking a fresh view of how leaders will need to prepare. To get ready for this future, we will all need new leadership literacies.

Institute for the Future researchers Mark Frauenfelder and David Pescovitz talk with UC Berkeley computer scientist and artist Eric Paulos< about wild ideas for wearable technologies, from sensor-laden temporary tattoos to fingernail display screens.