Rare Earth Minerals. Not so rare, but worth a look?

04/23/25 • 16 min

WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown

Gold Pullback in Focus

Gold surged to $3,500 before a sharp pullback to $3,321.
Simon breaks down what caused the spike — including comments from Trump about Powell and rate cuts.
Weekly chart shows potential kangaroo tail reversal — possible zone to watch: $2,800–$3,000.

Gold | Weekly | 23 April 2025

Trump, Powell & IMF Forecast Downgrades

Trump critiques Powell and Fed policy while possibly setting up a scapegoat.
IMF cuts global growth forecasts from 3.2% to 2.8%.
South Africa's expected GDP is now at 1% — far below Treasury’s 1.9% target.

Rare Earths: Not So Rare, Still Strategic

China's dominance in rare earths: 69% production, 90% processing.
Simon looks at the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) as a thematic play.
Pros & cons of investing in rare earths — not fully sold on the ETF himself.

Flashback: 5 Years Since Negative Oil

Remember April 2020? Oil went negative (-$40.32)!
Breakdown of why it happened (physical settlement, lack of storage).
One of the wildest moments in market history.

21 April 2020 | WTO goes negative

New Battery Tech from China’s CATL

Sodium-ion batteries could rival lithium: cheaper, safer, fast-charging.
CATL is profitable and pays a dividend, but listed in Shenzhen, making access tricky.

Aspen's R2 Billion Hit

Brief mention of Aspen's contract dispute and loss.
Lack of transparency continues to damage trust in management.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

Gold Pullback in Focus

Gold surged to $3,500 before a sharp pullback to $3,321.
Simon breaks down what caused the spike — including comments from Trump about Powell and rate cuts.
Weekly chart shows potential kangaroo tail reversal — possible zone to watch: $2,800–$3,000.

Gold | Weekly | 23 April 2025

Trump, Powell & IMF Forecast Downgrades

Trump critiques Powell and Fed policy while possibly setting up a scapegoat.
IMF cuts global growth forecasts from 3.2% to 2.8%.
South Africa's expected GDP is now at 1% — far below Treasury’s 1.9% target.

Rare Earths: Not So Rare, Still Strategic

China's dominance in rare earths: 69% production, 90% processing.
Simon looks at the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) as a thematic play.
Pros & cons of investing in rare earths — not fully sold on the ETF himself.

Flashback: 5 Years Since Negative Oil

Remember April 2020? Oil went negative (-$40.32)!
Breakdown of why it happened (physical settlement, lack of storage).
One of the wildest moments in market history.

21 April 2020 | WTO goes negative

New Battery Tech from China’s CATL

Sodium-ion batteries could rival lithium: cheaper, safer, fast-charging.
CATL is profitable and pays a dividend, but listed in Shenzhen, making access tricky.

Aspen's R2 Billion Hit

Brief mention of Aspen's contract dispute and loss.
Lack of transparency continues to damage trust in management.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

Previous Episode

Gold $4,500 by yearend, is it even possible?

🌍 Global Markets Rundown

Goldman Sachs suggests gold could plausibly hit $4,500/oz by year-end.
Gold is currently around $3,200/oz, but volatility and uncertainty are driving prices higher.
Gold miners are benefiting from the price surge, with big leverage showing up in earnings.
- Example: Pan African Resources made $900/oz at $2,250; could make $2,900 at $3,250.
Big upside still possible if gold just holds or drifts higher.
SA gold stocks (YTD performance):
- Pan African Resources +106%
- Harmony +76%
- AngloGold Ashanti* +72%
- Gold Fields +30% (with mine-related issues)

Gold | Weekly chart |15 April 2025

📉 Recession Watch

Larry Fink (BlackRock) & Jamie Dimon (JPMorgan): “US may already be in a recession.”
Trump’s constant tariff changes add more uncertainty.
Growth is slowing, and inflation is stubbornly high (risk of stagflation).
Treasury buyers are hesitant—money is going into gold, not US 10-year bonds.
China's potential bond moves could rattle the entire global system.

💸 Currency Check

The Rand recovered from nearly R20/USD to around R18.75/USD.
Driven by dollar weakness, global uncertainty, and DXY dipping below 100.
Local support for ZAR remains tentative but improving.

📊 ETFs & Resources Rally

Satrix RESI ETF* now ~50% gold miners, up ~44% YTD.
Resource-driven tax windfalls (like in 2021/22) show how profitable miners benefit the broader economy.

📈 Local Market Highlights

Purple Group* (EasyEquities) finally breaks out:
Strong results: HEPS up 204%.
Thrive initiative charging inactive accounts adds meaningful revenue.
Stock rallied from 92c to 118c in just over a week.
Possible end to aggressive selling pressure—more upside ahead?

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

Next Episode

Alphabet is way Cheap | Nasty US economic data

🎙 Episode Summary: This week, Simon unpacks Alphabet’s surprisingly cheap valuation, troubling US economic data, South African CPI figures, Trump’s trade mess, and the implications of Aspen’s customer fallout. Plus, he previews the Berkshire AGM and upcoming JustOneLap events.

📉 US Economic Data Shock