SI183: Nickel Short Squeeze & Trend Following in an Unstable World ft. Jerry Parker

03/12/22 • 83 min

Jerry Parker joins me in today’s episode to discuss trend following as a robust guide to the markets in a world of instability and insecurity. We also discuss the recent short squeeze in nickel which has led to an unprecidented response from the LME, how to develop a trend following system, and what to do if you miss a breakout trade. We dive into when to trade index-based products vs. single stocks, how to manage trailing stops, and Jerry's decision to stop doing trend following research and rounding off our conversation with interesting and somewhat provocative tweets from Jerry.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

In this episode, we discuss:

Trend following and volatility in relation to the current situation in Ukraine
The recent short squeeze in nickel trading and the reaction from the LME
Tips and tricks to grow as a trend follower
How to develop a good trend following system
How to manage trailing stops
How Jerry managed his short Russian stock position
What Jerry will focus on as he stops doing Trend Following Research

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:40 - Summary of the week

08:03 - What happened this week with nickel trading

14:53 - Q1, Josh: Any tips and tricks for Trend Following investing and ETFs?

31:57 - Q2, William: How do you react following a missed breakout?

37:11 - Q3, ABE: Is it wise to avoid Index-based products and how to trade CTA Index Futures? How do CTAs as an industry, become part of the financial zeitgeist going forward?

45:36 - Q4, FunnyMoney: Are trading stops intra-day or managed at the next day open?

49:25 - What happens if you stop doing trend following research

57:00 - Tweets from Jerry

01:20:43 - Performance overview

01:21:49 - Thanks for listening

Resources discussed in this Episode:

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

In this episode, we discuss:

Trend following and volatility in relation to the current situation in Ukraine
The recent short squeeze in nickel trading and the reaction from the LME
Tips and tricks to grow as a trend follower
How to develop a good trend following system
How to manage trailing stops
How Jerry managed his short Russian stock position
What Jerry will focus on as he stops doing Trend Following Research

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:40 - Summary of the week

08:03 - What happened this week with nickel trading

14:53 - Q1, Josh: Any tips and tricks for Trend Following investing and ETFs?

31:57 - Q2, William: How do you react following a missed breakout?

37:11 - Q3, ABE: Is it wise to avoid Index-based products and how to trade CTA Index Futures? How do CTAs as an industry, become part of the financial zeitgeist going forward?

45:36 - Q4, FunnyMoney: Are trading stops intra-day or managed at the next day open?

49:25 - What happens if you stop doing trend following research

57:00 - Tweets from Jerry

01:20:43 - Performance overview

01:21:49 - Thanks for listening

Resources discussed in this Episode:

Previous Episode

ALO05: Better than Alpha ft. Chris Schelling

In this episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Chris Schelling, Chief Investment Strategist at Venturi Private Wealth and author of the book “Better Than Alpha”, to discuss asset allocation and how assets are managed in the private space vs institutional space, about disrupting the 60/40 model and formulating a new standard, the evolution of the industry over the years, the role of liquidity in asset allocation, the use of Alpha and Beta in investment, what it takes to be a skilled manager and the risk of manager selection.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

In this episode, we discuss:

How are assets managed in the private space vs institutional space
Biases in asset allocation and how to overcome them.
Using Alpha, Beta and other investment strategies
Due diligence and things to avoid in the process
The risks of manager selection and what it takes to be a good manager.

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Chris Schelling on LinkedIn & read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:23 - About Chris’s background and his role at Venturi

12:45 - Disrupting the 60/40 model and formulating a new standard

17:54 - How the industry has evolved over the years

21:56 - Is private equity less risky?

23:43 - Is liquidity being more or less valued as it should be?

27:39 - Alpha, Beta and mapping strategies into categories

32:37 - Dispersion and persistence of returns

36:30 - How to set objectives and make decisions

40:14 - Overcoming biases

44:20 - Dealing with randomness

47:33 - Important skills managers need to have

54:29 - Timeframe for analysing a manager’s performance

57:46 - Things to avoid in the due diligence process

01:00:14 - Risks within manager selection

01:03:00 - How much experience do you need?

01:05:09 - Advice for working with asset allocation and manager selection

01:06:12 - Book recommendations

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I ca...

Next Episode

VOL11: The Anatomy of a Trade ft. Alex Gurevich

In this episode Hari is joined by Alex Gurevich, author, PhD in mathematics and founder of HonTe Investments, to discuss how he values bonds differently to many investors today, how to build a balanced portfolio, the many ways to loose money when buying an option (even if you are "kinda" right) as well as how he makes decisions as a trader, how to manage stress and keep a healthy lifestyle as a hedge fund manager and what the future of the global financial markets may look like.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

In this episode, we discuss:

How different types of bonds are valuated
The pattern in how many times the FED tends to move rates, once they begin
Why Rate cycles are getting shorter (in time)
Why Alex believes that the FED should not raise rates before reducing their balance sheet
Alex playbook for the Ukrainian crisis: Oil could collapse to $40 and Rates could go back to zero
How your performance can end up defining who you are (if you are not careful)
The synchronisation of the central banks and how the future might look for the global financial market

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Hari on Twitter.

Follow Alex on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:42 - Introduction to Alex and his background

07:20 - How Alex think about bonds

16:37 - Have bonds become more important since 2008?

18:15 - Making decisions as a trader, and handling victories and defeats

28:01 - Why did Alex go into dividend futures during Covid crisis?

33:41 - What Alex would have done if the FED had not stepped in during the Covid crisis

35:40 - How manager can feel that their performance defines who they are

41:27 - The synchronization of central banks and the affect on rates

48:59 - What’s going to happen with the FED going forward?

54:05 - Rounding off and overview of Alex’s books

59:38 - Thank you for listening

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you ...