The New Bazaar - How to Slay Economic Zombies

How to Slay Economic Zombies

10/09/24 • 62 min

What is the right foreign economic policy toward China? Did the Fed cut rates in time to avoid a recession? Have agglomeration economies been changed by work-from-home and the dematerializing economy?

On September 21st, Paul Krugman joined host Cardiff Garcia live on stage for a sweeping conversation at the #EconTwitterIRL conference in Lancaster, Pennsylvania.

They discussed not only Paul’s view of the economy and his achievements in economics, but also his approach to communicating his ideas about economics — which is likely to be as important a part of Paul’s legacy as the (Nobel prize winning) economics itself.

Among the other topics they covered:

Paul’s hippie-punching days in the 1990s
How economic geography has changed through the decades
Whether place-based policy works
Why a previous regret no longer bothers him much
How Paul blends style and substance in his writing
Why Democrats seem so bad at running big cities
The work Paul is most proud of

And at the end of this fun, dense, and surprisingly humorous chat, you’ll hear Paul answer the questions he fielded from the audience of economists, journalists, think tankers and others in attendance.

RELATED LINKS:

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On September 21st, Paul Krugman joined host Cardiff Garcia live on stage for a sweeping conversation at the #EconTwitterIRL conference in Lancaster, Pennsylvania.

Among the other topics they covered:

Paul’s hippie-punching days in the 1990s
How economic geography has changed through the decades
Whether place-based policy works
Why a previous regret no longer bothers him much
How Paul blends style and substance in his writing
Why Democrats seem so bad at running big cities
The work Paul is most proud of

RELATED LINKS:

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Previous Episode

Is the Introvert Economy here to stay?

"The introverts have taken over the US economy."

That's the provocative title of a recent Bloomberg column from economist Allison Schrager. As she looked into the data on how Americans have been spending their time since the pandemic, she noticed that they are spending less time socializing with their friends on weekends and more time in front of screens. Even when they do go out, it's increasingly for an early dinner. That's all in addition to the bigger share of Americans who now work remotely, a trend that accelerated during the pandemic and is unlikely to ever fully reverse.

Who are the winners and losers from these trends? And what's going on?

Obvious explanations include pandemic experimentation, smartphones, better entertainment and telecommunications technologies. But Allison also likes to see these trends through the prism of risk. She tells Cardiff that the "risk-free rate" that Americans can earn from indoor, introverted activity has climbed. With so much choice over the movies, music, and books you can consume in your home, not to mention access to social media and swipe-able dating apps, you are guaranteed to have at least a pretty good time by staying in. Going out means making an "investment" with possibly more upside (meet the love of your life, see a memorable live performance, attend an epic party) but also a vastly more uncertain payoff.

Allison and Cardiff discuss these ideas and whether the economy's new introvert-friendliness is likely to stay. They also talk about other trends that could soon favor extroverts, the risks of AI and automation in the labor market, and the skills and traits that will matter for the jobs of the future.

Related links:

The Introverts Have Taken Over the US Economy (Bloomberg column)
Known Unknowns (Allison's newsletter)
An Economist Walks Into a Brothel (Allison's book about risk)

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Next Episode

Election freakouts and American workers

How close is the 2024 presidential election?

Here is how the New York Times framed it recently: “Never in modern presidential campaigns have so many states been so tight this close to Election Day. Polling averages show that all seven battleground states are within the margin of error, meaning the difference between a half-point up and a half-point down — essentially a rounding error — could win or lose the White House.”

A recent Times-Sienna poll has the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris deadlocked at 48 to 48. Other polls are similarly close — which does not mean they are all telling the same story. Today’s guest, Kristen Soltis Anderson, writes that although “several of them show a dead heat, beneath the surface, they diverge in how they arrive at that result”.

What stories can we glean from each poll? What theories of this election can we derive from those stories? Are the polls even right? And why, despite verbal gaffes and incendiary rallies and international conflict and general campaign turmoil, have the polling averages remained so steady in recent months?

Kristen is a founding partner of Echelon Insights, an opinion research and analytics firm, and contributing Opinion writer to the New York Times, where she often writes about what is knowable and not knowable based on the polls. We talk about all these themes, including a theory of the election that Kristen came upon while watching football in Phoenix on a Sunday.

Finally, we discuss a detailed survey of American workers that Echelon Insights, Kristen’s firm, put into the field for the Economic Innovation Group — and its most surprising findings.

All this and more on today’s episode!

Opinion | Two Weeks to Go, but Only One Way to Stay Calm

Opinion | This Year’s October Surprise May Be That There Isn’t One

Opinion | Why the Election Is Coming Down to Defining Kamala Harris - The New York Times

Opinion | I’ve Studied the Polls. Here’s Why Harris Isn’t Running Away With It.

The American Worker Project Survey: Key Findings Deck

American workers and the 2024 election

Kristen’s website

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