The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens

Recorded April 10, 2023

Description

In this Frankly, Nate explains how he views the future from a probability perspective - a tool frequently used in industries such as finance, retirement planning, and by e.g. gamblers. While there will be only one eventual outcome, the possible paths to that future fall in a distribution, with some results much more likely than others. We can shift these results with our actions in the present. However, no one person can know this distribution perfectly, only the distribution shaped by their own bias, knowledge, and perspective. How might we use a probabilistic approach to better understand what’s possible - and even to better relate to others? By thinking of the future as a spectrum, can we avoid falling into traps of certainty and complacency that inevitably lead to inaction? While there are some outcomes that are impossible, there are still many within our power to steer towards during a Simplification.

To watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/uWn2svl6aBU

For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/29-reality-probability-and-perception

On this episode we meet with founding member of The Consilience Project, Daniel Schmachtenberger.

In the first of a five-part series, Nate and Daniel outline the macro risks and pathways for civilization to 'bend' and avoid 'breaking' in coming decades.

In the Part 1 of 5 conversation, Schmachtenberger flips the script to interview Nate about the urgent problems his research and work on energy, money, and growth confront. Nate explains how we can come to understand energy blindness and the overlooked role of oil in consumption, production, and progress since the Industrial Revolution. The dominant narrative of human progress prioritizes capital and labor — but the omission of energy and materials leaves out a key component to understanding how the modern human ecosystem functions.

Further, Nate discusses how a growth economy will inevitably lead to increased energy production and consumption, and how new energy technologies like renewables end up creating more energy output, not less. Putting everything together, in outsourcing our decisions and planning to a market dependent on growth, we have not so metaphorically become an energy hungry superorganism.

Finally, Daniel and Nate look forward to answering: What are ways for us to prepare for a post-growth economy? How can we stay balanced in the face of existential crises? What type of policy can help shape a future that is yet to arrive, and how can we get ahead?

Daniel Schmachtenberger is a founding member of The Consilience Project, aimed at improving public sensemaking and dialogue.

The throughline of his interests has to do with ways of improving the health and development of individuals and society, with a virtuous relationship between the two as a goal.

Towards these ends, he’s had particular interest in the topics of catastrophic and existential risk, civilization and institutional decay and collapse as well as progress, collective action problems, social organization theories, and the relevant domains in philosophy and science.

For Show Notes and Transcript visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/05-daniel-schmactenberger

On this episode, Nate is joined by Alexa Firmenich, whose work spans biodiversity advocacy, ESG investing, wilderness excursion facilitating, and podcasting/creative writing. Together, they philosophize on the importance of developing a connection to nature and understanding the - often overlooked - but critical function of biodiversity to the climate and other natural systems. Alexa also delves into her thinking about new economic and cultural models on human systems that could work within the biosphere. How can acknowledging our individual roles as a part of the Earth’s larger system give us a new perspective on what it means to live among its other inhabitants? Why does a system full of external incentives ultimately disincentivize our natural human inclination toward pro-sociality? Will a future of lower energy throughput result in each of us rekindling the inherent connection with the land that we live on, leading to simpler lives - yet perhaps more fulfilling ones?

About Alexa Firmenich:

Alexa Firmenich is an investor, consultant and facilitator focused on climate and biodiversity. She is the co-director of SEED, a new center of the Crowther Lab at ETH Zurich. SEED is developing the world's most holistic measure of biodiversity that reflects multiple scale’s of nature's complexity for any location on the planet, with the goal to steer financial and political decision-makers to crystallize the value of nature into the global economy. Alexa is also the founder of Ground Effect, an animist investment vehicle that supports early stage nature-based solutions, scientific research and new economic models. Parallel to this work she is trained as a group facilitator in leadership development and ecological pedagogy, designing multi-day learning journeys through her role at Leaders' Quest. She is also an author, podcast host of Lifeworlds, a founding board member of Terra Habitus, a Mexican environmental fund that operates large-landscape conservation and watershed restoration, and a wilderness guide.

For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/106-alexa-firmenich

To watch this video episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/4POPay2sIr8

On this episode, we meet with Ecological Economist, John Gowdy.

Gowdy explores the revolution in biology and its significance in society. How do different cultures manifest human nature? What role has agriculture, and specific crops, played in how societies developed?

Further, Gowdy discusses the relationship between capitalism, surplus, and The Superorganism. Does human agency matter to the Superorganism? What role do blind evolutionary mechanisms play in the development of our society?

John M. Gowdy is Professor of Economics and Professor of Science and Technology Studies at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute in Troy, New York. He is the recipient of the Herman Daly Award for contributions to ecological economics.

For Show Notes and Transcript visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/14-john-gowdy

Recorded December 18 2023

Description

In this Frankly, Nate offers a personal reflection on his learnings about ‘awareness’ vs ‘focus’ and how this knowledge could be used as a guide toward more thoughtful behaviors. The human body’s system has evolved through time and the layers were built sequentially, each interacting and reacting to the systems below it. By becoming aware of this and attempting to balance them from the bottom up, we could move away from the reactionary tendencies that many in our culture are now pulled towards. How does an overstimulating, dopamine driven modern environment affect our brains ability to cope? How do our behaviors change when our systems are in a constant state of fear or dissatisfaction? What would the world look like if we spent more time reflecting and realigning rather than in perpetual fight, flight, or freeze mode?

For Show Notes and to learn more: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/52-the-behavioral-stack

To Watch on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QynYlsW35Sw&list=PLdc087VsWiC5im7eWkCD0t907MbOAftb3