The investment banks to watch in 2025

12/20/24 • 36 min

◆ The sheep and the goats in UK water
◆ How EM loses assets but gains deals
◆ US corporates lean to euro bonds
Investment bankers feel like they're on the verge of something good: a boom year in 2025 of mergers and acquisitions, by both corporate and private equity firms, and all the debt and equity financing that goes with it.

The US will be front and centre, all agree, as even the prospect of Donald Trump's presidency is quickening the nerves with hopes of deregulation and M&A being waved through without questions.

Even Trump's harsher moves like tariffs could stimulate deals as companies try to position themselves better.

It's a shoo-in that the US investment banks will do well in this climate, but which of the European banks are chasing them hardest, and managing to outrun their peers? We highlight the winners of 2024 and next year's contenders.

Also this week, Ofwat, the UK water regulator, produced its much-anticipated final determination of the financial parameters for water companies for the next five years. We explore what it does for the sector, especially its sickest member, Thames Water.

And the US Federal Reserve made a "hawkish cut" of interest rates this week. That is crushing the hopes of emerging market bond investors, which have been longing for three years for a strong rate cutting cycle to give them some money inflows at last.

But it could be good news for bond bankers in London, as US companies may turn to the euro and sterling markets for funding next year.

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The US will be front and centre, all agree, as even the prospect of Donald Trump's presidency is quickening the nerves with hopes of deregulation and M&A being waved through without questions.

Even Trump's harsher moves like tariffs could stimulate deals as companies try to position themselves better.

But it could be good news for bond bankers in London, as US companies may turn to the euro and sterling markets for funding next year.

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GlobalCapital's Review 2024 | Outlook 2025 podcast

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◆ How to fund Europe
◆ What market experts think is going to happen next
◆ The EU to embark on biggest six-month funding spree
The European Union shapes up poorly compared to its rivals when it comes to growth and competitiveness. Former ECB president and Italian prime minister Mario Draghi believes the bloc needs €800bn of investment a year, but how to raise it? We reveal all.

That story is just one in our Review 2024 | Outlook 2025 special report. If you register by clicking through to this page, you will not only receive a free printed edition of the report but also 14 days of free access to GlobalCapital.

We also discuss what the most senior debt capital markets bankers think is going to happen in the year ahead, and where they see the threats and opportunities for their business. Clue: good news for those either looking to start out, or who have newly arrived in, their capital markets careers.

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Perfect storm hits sterling bond market

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◆ Gilts rocked on macro fears but sterling bond issuance booms
◆ Just how much of a basket case is the UK anyway?
◆ Debt-for-nature swaps blossom
This has lead to references in the press to the 2022 Gilt crisis, which the Conservative government caused with its notorious mini-budget of tax cuts to be fuelled through Gilt issuance. There have even been comparisons with 1976 when the UK took a loan from the IMF. We find out whether such comparisons are warranted.

In any case, what's bad for UK taxpayers appears to be fantastic for issuers and investors in the sterling bond market with record volumes of issuance being priced this week. We explain what is driving the market if the economic picture is really as bad as it is being painted to be.

We also take a look at the rise of the deb-for-nature swap — a financial package that allows distressed sovereigns to restructure debt and put money towards environmental causes.