Milei, Macro and Mexico

12/08/23 • 44 min

◆ Latin America’s bond markets at an (interest rate) inflection point
◆ Who’d be a primary dealer?
◆ What price briiiiidge loans?
As GlobalCapital launches the poll for our first dedicated Latin America Bond Awards, our podcast takes a deep dive into the region’s troubled capital markets, with special guest Omotunde Lawal, head of emerging markets corporate debt at Barings.

There may not be many deals in the market — at least not public ones, as Lawal points out — but there is masses going on. Javier Milei, Argentina’s new populist firebrand president, has gobsmacked everyone by choosing establishment figures to run finance. Mexico has an election next year that could hold upside for the markets, and in the meantime, the region’s CFOs and treasurers, used to tough times, are getting on with the job.

In Europe, we look at government bond primary dealerships, long a source of gripes for investment banks as it is so hard to make money on them, and easy to lose it. Capital rules are about to tilt the balance of incentives still further, and waiting in the wings are non-bank market makers like Citadel Securities.

Patience is a virtue — especially in the loan market, where bridge loans for M&A deals are having to go on, and on, and on. M&A deals simply take longer to close nowadays, which is changing the dynamics for banks.

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German SSAs face funding uncertainty

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◆ German court ruling may hit Bund issuance in 2024
◆ KfW and Länder funding may also be affected
◆ Banks and borrowers shrink loan syndicates
The German constitutional court has rocked the country's public sector borrowers just as they finalise their funding needs for 2024.
We look at how the new multi-billion euro-sized hole in the government's budget that is the result of the ruling will affect Bund issuance next year, as well as the funding programmes of KfW and the countries federal states
Meanwhile, banks are paring down the amount of lending they do to companies in the quest for profitability. But there is evidence that borrowers are perfectly happy with shrinking syndicates. We explain why.

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GlobalCapital's Review 2023 | Outlook 2024 podcast

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◆ What the most senior debt bankers in the world are worrying about for next year
◆ Who's eating Credit Suisse
◆ If a property company falls in the forest and doesn't make a sound...
One of the very biggest investment banking stories this year was the collapse of Credit Suisse. But its rescue by UBS and what the rest of the Street makes of the demise of its rival is a story that will play out into 2024 and beyond.

In our Review 2023 | Outlook 2024 special report, we have the most in-depth reporting you will find anywhere on what is happening to the stricken Swiss bank's market share, clients and staff, and what its new owners on the other side of Zurich's Paradeplatz plan to do with their new acquisition. We discuss all of those topics on this week's show.

We also look at what the heads of debt capital markets at the biggest bond houses are thinking about business next year, from volumes, products and fees to travel, bonuses and bugbears.

Finally, in this week's news, we look into how the collapse of Austrian property company Signa might affect the bond market and wonder why nobody seems to be all that worried about it just yet.
Read our special report for free here
This is the final episode of The GlobalCapital Podcast for 2023. Thank you to everyone who downloaded us this year and subscribed. We'll be back in the first week of January so in the meantime, Merry Christmas and enjoy the holiday season.