Victor Cha on Korea's Crossroads

The Delegates Lounge podcast commences our third season in a timely conversation with Victor Cha, the well-known Korea watcher who is both president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a foreign policy think tank based in Washington, D.C. He served in an advisory role to the secretary of defense in the Joe Biden administration and served on the National Security Council in the George W. Bush administration.

In this episode, we delve into the complex geopolitical landscape facing South Korea today, as the country heads into a critical special election on June 3. One month is all that separates the balloting next month from the selection of the candidates vying to replace impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol. What distinguishes this election cycle, however, is the unprecedented role of relations between United States and South Korea as a campaign issue. Unlike past elections, when the United States enjoyed consistently high approval ratings among South Koreans, the Trump Administration's tariff policies have created significant economic challenges.

This new dynamic creates challenges for the trilateral relationship between the United States, Japan, and South Korea. The historic Camp David accord reached in 2023 represented unprecedented cooperation, but its future remains uncertain with leadership changes in all three countries. While Japan and South Korea have made progress under Yoon's government in moving beyond historical grievances, the election outcome could determine whether this forward-looking approach continues or reverts to past animosities.

Perhaps the most alarming development in the region is the strengthening alliance between North Korea and Russia. North Korea's direct support for Russia's war in Ukraine by providing ammunition, missiles, and even troops that helped Russia regain parts of Kursk has yielded substantial benefits for Kim Jong-un's regime. The flow of money, food, fuel, and technology from Russia to North Korea has effectively broken the UN sanctions regime, placing North Korea in a much stronger position than when it previously engaged with the Trump administration.

Speakers:

J. Alex Tarquinio (host) is a resident correspondent at the United Nations in New York and co-founder of The Delegates Lounge podcast. @alextarquinio of @delegateslounge on X.

Victor Cha (guest) is president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Georgetown University professor, and a former member of the U.S. National Security Council. @VictorDCha, the @CSISKoreaChair @CSISGeopolitics of @CSIS on X.

References:

Our guest in this episode has his own podcast. Listen to The Impossible State on the CSIS website.

https://www.csis.org/podcasts/

Victor Cha is the author of eight books. His two most recent works are mentioned in this episode.

Korea: A New History of North and South

https://www.amazon.com/Korea-New-History-South-North/dp/0300259816

The Black Box: Demystifying the Study of Korean Unification and North Korea

https://www.amazon.com/Black-Box-Demystifying-Unification-Contemporary/dp/0231211090