Probable Causation

Felipe Goncalves talks about how reductions in police enforcement activity affect crime.

“Do Police Make Too Many Arrests? The Effect of Enforcement Pullbacks on Crime” by Sungwoo Cho, Felipe Goncalves, and Emily Weisburst.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

• “More COPS, Less Crime” by Steven Mello
• “Panic on the Streets of London: Police, Crime, and the July 2005 Terror Attacks” by Mirko Draca, Stephen Machin, Robert Witt
• “Misdemeanor Prosecution” by Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac & Anna Harvey
• Episode 51 of Probable Causation: Amanda Agan and Anna Harvey
• “Does Proactive Policing Really Increase Major Crime? Accounting for an Ecological Fallacy” by Aaron Chalfin, David Mitre Becerril and Morgan Williams Jr.
• “The Professional Motivations of Police Officers” by Aaron Chalfin & Felipe Goncalves

Elizabeth Linos talks about how to recruit more and different people to become police officers. This episode was first posted in January 2021.

"More Than Public Service: A Field Experiment on Job Advertisements and Diversity in the Police" by Elizabeth Linos.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

• "Behavioral Insights for Building the Police Force of Tomorrow" by Joanna Weill, Elizabeth Linos, Siddharth Mandava, Cecily Wallman-Stokes, and Jacob Appel.
• "Thick Red Tape and the Thin Blue Line: A Field Study on Reducing Administrative Burden in Police Recruitment" by Elizabeth Linos and Nefara Riesch.
• "A head for hiring: The behavioural science of recruitment and selection" by Elizabeth Linos and Joanne Reinhard.

Michael Lovenheim talks about how grade retention affects students' later criminal activity.

"The Effect of Grade Retention on Adult Crime: Evidence From a Test-Based Promotion Policy" by Ozkan Eren, Michael F. Lovenheim, and Naci H. Mocan.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

• “In school and out of trouble: The minimum dropout age and juvenile crime” by D. Mark Anderson.
• “The effect of education on crime: Evidence from prison inmates, arrests, and self-reports” by Lance Lochner and Enrico Moretti.
• “Priceless: The nonpecuniary benefits of schooling” by Philip Oreopolous and Kjell G. Salvanes.
• “The crime reducing effect of education” by Stephen Machin, Olivier Marie, and Sunčica Vujić.
• “Compulsory education and the benefits of schooling” by Melvin Stephens Jr.and Dou-Yan Yang.
• “Better schools, less crime?” by David Deming.
• “The effect of school choice on participants: Evidence from randomized lotteries” by Julie Berry Cullen, Brian A. Jacob, and Steven Levitt.
• “The effect of grade retention on high school completion” by Brian A. Jacob and Lars Lefgren.
• “How the timing of grade retention affects outcomes: Identification and estimation of time-varying treatment effects” by Jane Cooley Fruehwirth, Salvador Navarro, and Yuya Takahashi.
• “Grade retention, postsecondary education, and public aid receipt” by Suh-Ruu Ou and Arthur J. Reynolds.
• “The effects of test-based retention on student outcomes over time: Regression discontinuity evidence from Florida” by Guido Schwerdt, Martin R. West, and Marcus A. Winters.
• “Test-based promotion policies, dropping out, and juvenile crime” by Ozkan Eren, Briggs Depew, and Stephen Barnes.
• “Breaking bad: Mechanisms of social influence and the path to criminality in juvenile jails” by Megan Stevenson.

Emily Weisburst talks about the effects of putting police officers in schools.

"Patrolling Public Schools: The Impact of Funding for School Police on Student Discipline and Long‐term Education Outcomes" by Emily K. Weisburst

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

• "Whose Help is on the Way? The Importance of Individual Police Officers in Law Enforcement Outcomes" by Emily Weisburst.
• "Police in the Hallways: Discipline in an Urban High School" by Kathleen Nolan.
• "Homeroom Security: School Discipline in an Age of Fear" by Aaron Kupchik.
• "Testing the School-to-Prison Pipeline" by Emily G. Owens.
• "Juvenile Incarceration, Human Capital, and Future Crime: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges" by Anna Aizer and Joseph J. Doyle, Jr.

Aurelie Ouss talks about using insights from behavioral economics to reduce failures-to-appear in court.

• "Nudging Crime Policy: Reducing Failures to Appear for Court" by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah. (Available from the authors upon request.)
• Related policy paper: "Using Behavioral Science to Improve Criminal Justice Outcomes: Preventing Failures to Appear in Court" by Brice Cook, Binta Zahra Diop, Alissa Fishbane, Jonathan Hayes, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj Shah.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

• "Bail, Jail, and Pretrial Misconduct: The Influence of Prosecutors" by Aurelie Ouss and Megan T. Stevenson.
• “ Distortion of Justice: How the Inability to Pay Bail Affects Case Outcomes” by Megan T. Stevenson.
• “The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges” by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Crystal S. Yang.
• “The Unintended Impact of Pretrial Detention on Case Outcomes: Evidence from New York City Arraignments” by Emily Leslie and Nolan G. Pope.
• “The Downstream Consequences of Misdemeanor Pretrial Detention” by Paul Heaton, Sandra Mayson, and Megan Stevenson.
• Episode 4 of Probable Causation: Megan Stevenson
• "Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago" by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.
• “Behavioral Biases and Legal Compliance: A Field Experiment” by Natalia Emanuel and Helen Ho.