Moving Home with Charlie

Alex Groundwater is a good friend from early school days, one of the rare ones I have kept in touch with.
We sat down for a casual conversation on a serious topic. How bad could the economy get?
I am an optimistic and happy guy. But, this is not a cheery or positive episode. We actively debate what the worst case scenario might look like. If you find gloomy outlooks difficult, depressing or triggering in any way, I would suggest giving this episode a miss.
You can find him here on Twitter
https://twitter.com/alexgroundwater
The expression “Death in Poverty” came about in April 2020 due to concerns over long-term economic and health damage caused by Covid lockdowns which is now playing out as we watch ie. inflation, interest rates, house prices, 7.1M NHS waiting lists, public sector strikes etc
Two days after recording this video we fact-checked our own estimates and assumptions. We weren’t far off.
Here is what Alex sent me:
“We weren’t that far off with £400Bn - in 2021 Housing contribution to GDP was £360Bn
Of that - imputed rent ie. not real rent was £225Bn - which feels right to me - given the value of old people’s mortgage free homes ie. Magic made up rent was 225/360 - 63% of all of housing’s contribution to GDP.
The total GDP in 2021 was c. £2.2Tr - so total housing of £360Bn contributes 16.4%! We’re good at this!
Totally magic imputed therefore contributes 10.2%
We are therefore in EXACTLY the same position as the US in terms of using pretend rent and real rent to make it look like our economies are doing well. How can an asset that is not being produced - only lived in - be counted as domestic product worth over 16% of the economy?
It’s not like manufacturing cars and selling them domestically and abroad. More smoke and mirrors! Or... as this is GDP calculated from expenditure - like buying a new car or ACTUALLY paying rent... when your house is mortgage free.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/satelliteaccounts/datasets/consumertrendschainedvolumemeasureseasonallyadjusted
Here is an extract from a different ONS site (section 2):
“Owner-occupiers’ imputed rental is an estimate of the housing services consumed by households who are not actually renting their residence. It can be thought of as the amount that non-renters pay themselves for the housing services that they produce.
As such, imputed rental should represent the economic value per period to home owners of their dwellings, equivalent to if they were to rent out their properties. By definition, however, a homeowner does not receive payment on their property, and so the payment must be "imputed". ......I

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Watch the video of this podcast here: https://youtube.com/live/QRWkLMPg2Ig
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Support the show

Follow me on X for daily updates: https://x.com/moving_charlie
Talk to my hand picked conveyancing partners here: https://mhwc.co.uk/conveyancing
Check out our national property listings on bestagent.co.uk if you're looking for a new home or need an agent to sell or let your existing home.
If you need a mortgage, talk to my hand picked, trusted mortgage team here: https://mhwc.co.uk/mortgage
All my other links: https://linktr.ee/movinghomewithcharlie
For my estate agency podcasts, visit https://linktr.ee/bestagent
If you're an estate agent, make sure you're getting your free telephone leads as well as viewing and vendor leads by joining https://bestagent.co.uk/agents

I'm being asked almost every day, "Charlie, why do you think house prices will fall 35%? I just don't see it."
I'm going to try and explain it a different way tonight. Watch the video of this podcast here: https://youtube.com/live/6RX8m5AL3sY
First Time Buyers:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-03/first-time-buyers-made-up-over-half-of-uk-home-purchases-in-2022
Landlord Exodus:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/buy-to-let/london-landlord-exodus-mortgage-rates-destroy-profits/
Second Homes:
https://www.google.com/search?q=second+homes&rlz=1C5CHFA_enGB899GB900&source=lnms&tbm=nws&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjqsNzI-Zr9AhVXilwKHUNmDAEQ_AUoAXoECAEQAw
Professional Investors:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/buy-to-let/inside-frenzied-buy-to-let-investor-exodus/
Economy: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-08/uk-may-avoid-recession-but-1-in-4-unable-to-pay-their-bills
Propertymark - Properties for sale increased 50%: https://www.propertymark.co.uk/resource/housing-insight-report-september-2022.html
RICS Buyer demand:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/09/uk-property-demand-house-prices-england-rics
Here are 38 itemised reasons if you haven't seen any of these:
16 Reasons: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmwKQ3hMvxQ
10 Reasons: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jRjMEqYcilk
8 Reasons: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vL6rg_wq6r0
4 reason: https://youtube.com/live/G9NwPHMx2w8
But you should still buy now if you can, just don't overpay!
https://mhwc.co.uk/mortgage

Support the show

Follow me on X for daily updates: https://x.com/moving_charlie
Talk to my hand picked conveyancing partners here: https://mhwc.co.uk/conveyancing
Check out our national property listings on bestagent.co.uk if you're looking for a new home or need an agent to sell or let your existing home.
If you need a mortgage, talk to my hand picked, trusted mortgage team here: https://mhwc.co.uk/mortgage
All my other links: https://linktr.ee/movinghomewithcharlie
For my estate agency podcasts, visit https://linktr.ee/bestagent
If you're an estate agent, make sure you're getting your free telephone leads as well as viewing and vendor leads by joining https://bestagent.co.uk/agents

Watch the video of this podcast on YouTube: https://youtube.com/live/ckDxHywMz2s?feature=share
We're 'not in recession'! Prepare for fresh gaslighting guff from many in the moving and mortgage industries.
Technically, with (as yet unrevised) Q4 2022 GDP at 0,0%, or 'flat', the UK escaped a technical recession by the skin of its teeth!
"Britain is much worse off than it understands"
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/03/britain-worse-off-1970s/
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/december2022
1. 2022 growth down to 4.1% (from 7.4% in 2021)
2. December contraction of -0.5% worse than expected (-0.3%)
3. Consumer services output fell -1.2%
4. Also, Nov Construction revised down
Buyers with a Mortgage in Principle have offers accepted faster than buyers without.
Talk to my hand-picked magic mortgage guys, they're independent, whole of market brokers. Pop your details in here and I'll put you in touch: https://mhwc.co.uk/mortgage
All my other links:
https://linktr.ee/movinghomewithcharlie

Support the show

Follow me on X for daily updates: https://x.com/moving_charlie
Talk to my hand picked conveyancing partners here: https://mhwc.co.uk/conveyancing
Check out our national property listings on bestagent.co.uk if you're looking for a new home or need an agent to sell or let your existing home.
If you need a mortgage, talk to my hand picked, trusted mortgage team here: https://mhwc.co.uk/mortgage
All my other links: https://linktr.ee/movinghomewithcharlie
For my estate agency podcasts, visit https://linktr.ee/bestagent
If you're an estate agent, make sure you're getting your free telephone leads as well as viewing and vendor leads by joining https://bestagent.co.uk/agents

Watch my rant on video here: https://youtube.com/live/j2EsVttih_c
Polly Neate steps down from her CEO role at Shelter. https://england.shelter.org.uk/media/press_release/shelter_chief_executive_polly_neate_to_step_down_in_march_2025_
Official Gov Statistics on Homelessness out today:
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/statutory-homelessness-in-england-financial-year-2023-24/statutory-homelessness-in-england-financial-year-2023-24

Support the show

Follow me on X for daily updates: https://x.com/moving_charlie
Talk to my hand picked conveyancing partners here: https://mhwc.co.uk/conveyancing
Check out our national property listings on bestagent.co.uk if you're looking for a new home or need an agent to sell or let your existing home.
If you need a mortgage, talk to my hand picked, trusted mortgage team here: https://mhwc.co.uk/mortgage
All my other links: https://linktr.ee/movinghomewithcharlie
For my estate agency podcasts, visit https://linktr.ee/bestagent
If you're an estate agent, make sure you're getting your free telephone leads as well as viewing and vendor leads by joining https://bestagent.co.uk/agents