Moving Home with Charlie

Thanks to Rayner Personnel recruitment for their copy of this interview where I got to sit down and talk to Russell Quirk and Russell Jervis and talk about my background in the property market.

Support the show

Follow me on X for daily updates: https://x.com/moving_charlie
Talk to my hand picked conveyancing partners here: https://mhwc.co.uk/conveyancing
Check out our national property listings on bestagent.co.uk if you're looking for a new home or need an agent to sell or let your existing home.
If you need a mortgage, talk to my hand picked, trusted mortgage team here: https://mhwc.co.uk/mortgage
All my other links: https://linktr.ee/movinghomewithcharlie
For my estate agency podcasts, visit https://linktr.ee/bestagent
If you're an estate agent, make sure you're getting your free telephone leads as well as viewing and vendor leads by joining https://bestagent.co.uk/agents

https://linktr.ee/movinghomewithcharlie
Get agents to come to you:
https://findyouragent.bestagent.property
Talk to my partner conveyancers about getting “contract ready” https://mhwc.co.uk/conveyancing
Watch the video here: https://youtube.com/live/SaHyyzWJbtU

Support the show

Follow me on X for daily updates: https://x.com/moving_charlie
Talk to my hand picked conveyancing partners here: https://mhwc.co.uk/conveyancing
Check out our national property listings on bestagent.co.uk if you're looking for a new home or need an agent to sell or let your existing home.
If you need a mortgage, talk to my hand picked, trusted mortgage team here: https://mhwc.co.uk/mortgage
All my other links: https://linktr.ee/movinghomewithcharlie
For my estate agency podcasts, visit https://linktr.ee/bestagent
If you're an estate agent, make sure you're getting your free telephone leads as well as viewing and vendor leads by joining https://bestagent.co.uk/agents

Alex Groundwater is a good friend from early school days, one of the rare ones I have kept in touch with.
We sat down for a casual conversation on a serious topic. How bad could the economy get?
I am an optimistic and happy guy. But, this is not a cheery or positive episode. We actively debate what the worst case scenario might look like. If you find gloomy outlooks difficult, depressing or triggering in any way, I would suggest giving this episode a miss.
You can find him here on Twitter
https://twitter.com/alexgroundwater
The expression “Death in Poverty” came about in April 2020 due to concerns over long-term economic and health damage caused by Covid lockdowns which is now playing out as we watch ie. inflation, interest rates, house prices, 7.1M NHS waiting lists, public sector strikes etc
Two days after recording this video we fact-checked our own estimates and assumptions. We weren’t far off.
Here is what Alex sent me:
“We weren’t that far off with £400Bn - in 2021 Housing contribution to GDP was £360Bn
Of that - imputed rent ie. not real rent was £225Bn - which feels right to me - given the value of old people’s mortgage free homes ie. Magic made up rent was 225/360 - 63% of all of housing’s contribution to GDP.
The total GDP in 2021 was c. £2.2Tr - so total housing of £360Bn contributes 16.4%! We’re good at this!
Totally magic imputed therefore contributes 10.2%
We are therefore in EXACTLY the same position as the US in terms of using pretend rent and real rent to make it look like our economies are doing well. How can an asset that is not being produced - only lived in - be counted as domestic product worth over 16% of the economy?
It’s not like manufacturing cars and selling them domestically and abroad. More smoke and mirrors! Or... as this is GDP calculated from expenditure - like buying a new car or ACTUALLY paying rent... when your house is mortgage free.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/satelliteaccounts/datasets/consumertrendschainedvolumemeasureseasonallyadjusted
Here is an extract from a different ONS site (section 2):
“Owner-occupiers’ imputed rental is an estimate of the housing services consumed by households who are not actually renting their residence. It can be thought of as the amount that non-renters pay themselves for the housing services that they produce.
As such, imputed rental should represent the economic value per period to home owners of their dwellings, equivalent to if they were to rent out their properties. By definition, however, a homeowner does not receive payment on their property, and so the payment must be "imputed". ......I

Support the show

Follow me on X for daily updates: https://x.com/moving_charlie
Talk to my hand picked conveyancing partners here: https://mhwc.co.uk/conveyancing
Check out our national property listings on bestagent.co.uk if you're looking for a new home or need an agent to sell or let your existing home.
If you need a mortgage, talk to my hand picked, trusted mortgage team here: https://mhwc.co.uk/mortgage
All my other links: https://linktr.ee/movinghomewithcharlie
For my estate agency podcasts, visit https://linktr.ee/bestagent
If you're an estate agent, make sure you're getting your free telephone leads as well as viewing and vendor leads by joining https://bestagent.co.uk/agents

Please let me know what you think of this new format. It will be in addition to all the existing livestreams and sporadic other videos!
First Time Buyers who would like trial access to member-only livestream Q&A, all questions answered, private messages answered, and early access to bestagent data releases, join here: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/mhwc/membership

Only 23 spaces left at time of publishing!
FACT 1: BestAgent data shows new homes coming on 4 times faster than sales being agreed.
https://mhwc.co.uk/blog/rising-supply-and-asking-prices-mask-sharp-falls-in-home-sale-prices/
Video commentary on BestAgent data: https://youtu.be/Oo_GbAxjgek
FACT 2: Year on Year House Price Growth turns negative
https://www.nationwidehousepriceindex.co.uk/reports/annual-house-price-growth-turns-negative-in-february-falling-to-its-weakest-level-since-2012

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-01/uk-house-prices-slide-at-sharpest-annual-pace-since-2012
My Tweet: https://twitter.com/moving_charlie/status/1630979894124347406?s=20
FACT 3: SONIA Swap Rates climb 0.75% in 4 weeks https://twitter.com/moving_charlie/status/1631701609116729373?s=20
https://www.chathamfinancial.com/technology/european-market-rates#view

FACT 4: Jan 2023 Mortgage Approvals lowest since 2009. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/mortgage-approvals
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-01/uk-mortgage-approvals-fall-to-lowest-since-first-lockdown
FACT 5: House builders issue profit warnings and job cut intentions
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-11806785/Persimmon-warns-profits-slashes-dividend-75.html

Support the show

Follow me on X for daily updates: https://x.com/moving_charlie
Talk to my hand picked conveyancing partners here: https://mhwc.co.uk/conveyancing
Check out our national property listings on bestagent.co.uk if you're looking for a new home or need an agent to sell or let your existing home.
If you need a mortgage, talk to my hand picked, trusted mortgage team here: https://mhwc.co.uk/mortgage
All my other links: https://linktr.ee/movinghomewithcharlie
For my estate agency podcasts, visit https://linktr.ee/bestagent
If you're an estate agent, make sure you're getting your free telephone leads as well as viewing and vendor leads by joining https://bestagent.co.uk/agents

Get help with your move here: https://mhwc.co.uk
5 Fact Friday 15 Nov 2024 - watch the video here: https://youtube.com/live/FR1SLLc4EPc
Jobs Data
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/november2024
Multiple Layoffs announced
https://x.com/moving_charlie/status/1856680397993545989?s=46

Mortgage rates go up
https://news.sky.com/story/money-latest-personal-finance-consumer-live-mortgage-pension-interest-rate-13040934?postid=8622988#liveblog-body
RICS October Report - New Lettings Collapse 29%.
https://www.rics.org/content/dam/ricsglobal/documents/market-surveys/uk-residential-market-survey/October-2024_UK-Residential-Market-Survey.pdf
GDP per head falls again as economy flatlines
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/julytoseptember2024

Support the show

Follow me on X for daily updates: https://x.com/moving_charlie
Talk to my hand picked conveyancing partners here: https://mhwc.co.uk/conveyancing
Check out our national property listings on bestagent.co.uk if you're looking for a new home or need an agent to sell or let your existing home.
If you need a mortgage, talk to my hand picked, trusted mortgage team here: https://mhwc.co.uk/mortgage
All my other links: https://linktr.ee/movinghomewithcharlie
For my estate agency podcasts, visit https://linktr.ee/bestagent
If you're an estate agent, make sure you're getting your free telephone leads as well as viewing and vendor leads by joining https://bestagent.co.uk/agents