Kenya protests highlight transmission of social risk to sovereign creditworthiness
07/22/24 • 13 min
The opposition to proposed tax hikes impedes the government’s ability to increase revenue and reduce debt. Similar risks exist for other emerging market sovereigns too.
Guest: David Rogovic, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Ratings
Host: Scott Phillips, Head of Emerging Markets, Credit Strategy and Research, Moody’s Ratings
Related Research:
- Moody's Ratings downgrades Kenya's ratings to Caa1; maintains negative outlook
- Government of Kenya: Protests against Finance Bill's tax measures challenge government's fiscal consolidation strategy
- Government of Kenya: Kenya's IMF agreement bolsters short-term liquidity; fiscal consolidation is key to improving credit quality
- Sovereigns – Sub-Saharan Africa: 2024 Outlook - Negative on large debt maturities amid tight funding conditions
The opposition to proposed tax hikes impedes the government’s ability to increase revenue and reduce debt. Similar risks exist for other emerging market sovereigns too.
Guest: David Rogovic, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Ratings
Host: Scott Phillips, Head of Emerging Markets, Credit Strategy and Research, Moody’s Ratings
Related Research:
- Moody's Ratings downgrades Kenya's ratings to Caa1; maintains negative outlook
- Government of Kenya: Protests against Finance Bill's tax measures challenge government's fiscal consolidation strategy
- Government of Kenya: Kenya's IMF agreement bolsters short-term liquidity; fiscal consolidation is key to improving credit quality
- Sovereigns – Sub-Saharan Africa: 2024 Outlook - Negative on large debt maturities amid tight funding conditions
Previous Episode
Steady GDP growth continues for emerging markets, with wide variation by country
We have revised our aggregate EM forecast up slightly to 3.9% for 2024-25 to reflect faster-than-expected growth in some of the largest EMs so far this year. Disinflation continues but is slowing.
Speaker: Madhavi Bokil, Senior Vice President, Credit Strategy at Moody's Ratings
Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Emerging Markets at Moody’s Ratings
Related Research:
Next Episode
Central bank push to tame inflation boosts credit quality of Turkish sovereign, companies
Rate hikes in Turkiye have slowed inflation, and confidence in the country’s currency is increasing. The sovereign’s creditworthiness is improving as a result, along with that of Turkish companies.
Guests: Kathrin Muehlbronner, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Ratings; Iker Ballestero Barrutia, Analyst, Corporate Finance Group, Moody's Ratings
Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's Ratings
Related Research:
- Moody's Ratings takes rating actions on eight Turkish corporates following upgrade of Turkiye sovereign rating
- Government of Turkiye – B1 positive: Update following upgrade to B1, outlook remains positive
- Government of Turkiye: Macro-financial monitor: CBRT tightening shows first results, but more is needed to moderate inflation
- Moody's Ratings upgrades Turkiye's ratings to B1, maintains positive outlook
- Government of Turkiye: Announced policy shift is credit positive but implementation comes with challenges
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