How should investors navigate economic and political uncertainty?

04/18/24 • 25 min

The global macroeconomic and geopolitical environment is filled with risks around inflation, interest rates, and instability in the Middle East. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss how scenario analysis can help investors to navigate uncertainty. They also consider the Bernanke review of the Bank of England’s forecasting process, which includes a recommendation to make greater use of scenarios.

Previous Episode

Will the Bank of Japan hike interest rates again before the Federal Reserve cuts?

The Bank of Japan has taken the historic step of ending negative interest rates and may hike further. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve seems to be approaching rate cuts, but an economic “no landing” could delay this. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew speak to Sree Kochugovindan and James McCann about the outlook for monetary policy in Japan and the US.

Next Episode

Is globalisation going into reverse, or just changing?

The traditional trade engine of globalisation has stalled or is even heading into reverse. But the globalisation of information, capital and people is still powering on. Nevertheless, even these aspects of globalisation are facing an increasingly hostile political and policy environment, including a potential Trump Presidency and ongoing US-China tensions. Paul Diggle speaks to James McCann about the nature of “globalisation 3.0”, and what it means for the economic outlook and financial markets.

Macro Bytes - How should investors navigate economic and political uncertainty?

Transcript

Paul Diggle

Hello and welcome to Macro Bytes the economics and politics podcast from abrdn. My
name is Paul Diggle

Luke Bartholomew

And I’m Luke Bartholomew.

Paul Diggle

And this week we want to talk a bit about the nature of economic forecasting and scenarios. How we think market participants can navigate a world filled with uncertainty by thinking through alternative scenarios and preparing for lots of different possible outcomes and the trigger for tha