Macro Bytes

After months of piecemeal economic policy support, Chinese stimulus has stepped up significantly and equity markets have surged higher. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew speak to Robert Gilhooly about the headwinds the Chinese economy has been facing, the risks of China slipping into ‘Japanification’, and whether recent measures represent a turning point in monetary and fiscal policy support.

Paul talks to Robert Gilhooly, senior emerging markets economist at abrdn, about China’s move away from zero-Covid. They discuss the reasons for the abrupt policy shift, the initial hit in terms of health and economic activity, and the economic rebound that’s now underway.

As China’s re-opening rebound fades, Paul and Luke talk to Jonathan Anderson of Emerging Advisors Group and Robert Gilhooly of abrdn about the Chinese economy. The discuss the prospects for policy easing, the state of local government finances, and internationalisation of the renminbi.

Welcome to another week of our Macro Bytes podcast – in which co-hosts Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by special guest David Beckworth, Senior Research Fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, former Treasury Department economist, academic and host of the Macro Musings podcast to explore the new frontiers of central banking.

This week the team discuss three key topics:

· The recent changes to the US Fed’s and other central banks’ inflation targeting frameworks

· The implications of central banks getting involved in climate policy

· Whether central banks are going to start issuing digital currencies in response to the rising popularity of cryptocurrencies
David’s NYT Op-Ed on Jerome Powell’s reappointment is here.

Luke and Paul’s piece on green central banking is here

And here are our thoughts on the outlook of central bank digital currencies
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Our lead topic is the cheery prospect of a cold, Covid winter - are further lockdowns on the horizon, and how much more can the economy can take? We leaven this with a lively discussion on inflation, and ask whether the crisis will have inflationary or disinflationary consequences. Clue: we think worries about inflation rising out of control are overblown - but you'll have to listen in to hear the rest.