UpstreamRE’s Relationship Status & a16z’s Scathing Review of Real Estate
Explicit content warning
12/22/18 • 51 min
Look into your crystal ball and ask about the future of real estate. A venture capitalist’s vision of the industry eliminates agents entirely in favor of the data a tech company can provide. A number of brokers are hoping to go back to the future and once again serve as the gatekeepers for real estate listings. Meanwhile UpstreamRE can’t seem to get a clear picture of its future at all. Will software ‘eat the real (estate) world’ as the recent a16z video suggests? Will brokerages find a way to regain control of their listings? Will UpstreamRE ever nail down an objective?
Rob and Greg start their review of recent real estate news with a discussion of the humbling Andreessen Horowitz video exposing the obvious flaws in organized real estate. They cover Alex Rampell’s argument against the narrative of agent as ‘trusted advisor’ and his thesis that metrics will eventually replace agents. Rob describes how technology might impact the future number of real estate agents and how much consumers will be willing to pay for guidance from a professional.
Greg shares his frustration with the ‘obvious BS’ surrounding UpstreamRE’s breakup with NAR, offering his take on why the alliance didn’t work and the new narrative around the company’s purpose. Rob and Greg both deliver their predictions regarding who UpstreamRE’s new vendor might be and how MLS providers may view the project’s latest pivot. Listen in for insight into the futility of broker efforts to regain control of listings and learn why UpstreamRE’s new vendor may want to ask for their money up front!
What’s Discussed:
The Andreessen Horowitz video on organized real estate
Alex Rampell’s argument against the ‘trusted advisor’
The prediction that metrics and data will replace agents
Mike Delprete’s insight on loss aversion in transactions
Money and partnerships vs. execution in tech startups
The impact of tech on the number of real estate agents
Why UpstreamRE’s partnership with NAR didn’t work
The new narrative around UpstreamRE’s objectives
Rob & Greg’s predictions re: UpstreamRE’s new vendor
How MLS providers may view UpstreamRE’s latest pivot
The futility of broker efforts to regain control of listings
Resources:
When Software Eats the Real (Estate) World
The Hard Thing About Hard Things: Building a Business When There Are No Easy Answersby Ben Horowitz
Who Is Michael Ovitz?by Michael Ovitz
Mike Delprete on Loss Aversion
New York Times Financial Crisis 2019 Article
The Red Dot
Connect with Rob and Greg:
Look into your crystal ball and ask about the future of real estate. A venture capitalist’s vision of the industry eliminates agents entirely in favor of the data a tech company can provide. A number of brokers are hoping to go back to the future and once again serve as the gatekeepers for real estate listings. Meanwhile UpstreamRE can’t seem to get a clear picture of its future at all. Will software ‘eat the real (estate) world’ as the recent a16z video suggests? Will brokerages find a way to regain control of their listings? Will UpstreamRE ever nail down an objective?
Rob and Greg start their review of recent real estate news with a discussion of the humbling Andreessen Horowitz video exposing the obvious flaws in organized real estate. They cover Alex Rampell’s argument against the narrative of agent as ‘trusted advisor’ and his thesis that metrics will eventually replace agents. Rob describes how technology might impact the future number of real estate agents and how much consumers will be willing to pay for guidance from a professional.
Greg shares his frustration with the ‘obvious BS’ surrounding UpstreamRE’s breakup with NAR, offering his take on why the alliance didn’t work and the new narrative around the company’s purpose. Rob and Greg both deliver their predictions regarding who UpstreamRE’s new vendor might be and how MLS providers may view the project’s latest pivot. Listen in for insight into the futility of broker efforts to regain control of listings and learn why UpstreamRE’s new vendor may want to ask for their money up front!
What’s Discussed:
The Andreessen Horowitz video on organized real estate
Alex Rampell’s argument against the ‘trusted advisor’
The prediction that metrics and data will replace agents
Mike Delprete’s insight on loss aversion in transactions
Money and partnerships vs. execution in tech startups
The impact of tech on the number of real estate agents
Why UpstreamRE’s partnership with NAR didn’t work
The new narrative around UpstreamRE’s objectives
Rob & Greg’s predictions re: UpstreamRE’s new vendor
How MLS providers may view UpstreamRE’s latest pivot
The futility of broker efforts to regain control of listings
Resources:
When Software Eats the Real (Estate) World
The Hard Thing About Hard Things: Building a Business When There Are No Easy Answersby Ben Horowitz
Who Is Michael Ovitz?by Michael Ovitz
Mike Delprete on Loss Aversion
New York Times Financial Crisis 2019 Article
The Red Dot
Connect with Rob and Greg:
Previous Episode
Predicting the Winners in Real Estate by Way of Research—with Brad Safalow
We can all agree that the real estate industry is evolving quickly. Is there any way to predict who the winners in the space will be over the next few years? Brad Safalow has done nine years of research surveying hundreds of real estate agents on the housing market in general, online lead generation, marketing and technology. Curious what all that data might tell us about the future of industry players like Zillow, Redfin and Realogy? What about the potential market share of the growing iBuyer model? Or how independent brokerages might respond to the competition?
Brad is the founder of Please Act Accordingly Research, an independent research firm providing investment ideas to professional money managers and high-net-worth individuals. He began his career in the leveraged finance group at JPMorgan before joining RiverEdge Capital, a global equity hedge fund, where he specialized in small/mid cap stocks and short idea generation. Brad has been serving clients through PAA since 2009, generating 6+ action-oriented investment ideas annually, with high absolute return potential.
Today, Brad joins Rob and Greg to share a high-level overview of his report on the real estate industry. Brad shares his take on the challenges Zillow is facing with the backlash against Premier Agent 4 and its foray into the iBuyer market. Rob highlights the concentration of power in real estate and its influence on Zillow’s continued success, and Greg asks about the pros and cons of the iBuyer model and its potential share of the marketplace moving forward. Brad also shares his experience working with Redfin versus a traditional brokerage, and they offer insight around how Redfin’s national ad campaign might prove to be a seminal moment in the industry. Listen in to understand how independent brokerages like Keller Williams and Realogy are responding to the iBuyer threat and a potential shift in commission structure—and get Brad, Rob and Greg’s predictions around the winners and losers in the space over the next three years.
What’s Discussed:
The PAA annual survey of real estate agents
A high-level overview of Brad’s report
The reasons why Zillow’s stock is taking a hit
How Zillow’s growth depends on agent teams
Why Zillow launched Premier Agent 4
How Zillow responded to backlash against PA4
The concentration of power in the industry
Why Zillow is pursuing the iBuyer model
The iBuyer’s potential share of the market
How Zillow may profit as a mortgage business
Efforts to improve the consumer experience
Redfin vs. the traditional brokerage experience
The impact of Redfin’s national ad campaign
The effects a shift in commission structure
The fear/panic among independent brokerages
Gary Keller’s understanding of the iBuyer threat
Realogy’s doubling down on traditional strategy
Resources:
Connect with Brad:
Connect with Rob and Greg:
Next Episode
A Closer Look at the Compass Vision Statement
We know that Compassis built around technology and that the real estate company has a shit ton of money—$4.4B, to be exact. But what else do we know about the tools and resources Compass offers its agents or the direction the company might take moving forward? Lucky for us, the firm’s most recent vision statementwas published online, and while it was incredibly inspiring, the presentation also raised a number of questions.
Rob and Greg welcome special guest Sunny Lake Hahn, partner at 7DS Associates, to offer a broker’s perspective as they discuss the Compass vision statement. Greg offers an overview of the presentation, covering the suite of products and services that Compass offers their agents and CEO Robert Reffkin’s inspiring personal story and message of empowerment. Sunny explains why she was impressed by the company’s COO offering for agents as well as their technology feedback loop.
Rob, Greg and Sunny debate whether Compass can provide a consistent user experience, describing how the company does offer continuity in terms of tools, resources and consumer-agent interaction. Greg shares his take on why wooing agents with a payout might be problematic, and Rob speaks to Compass’ potential play to generate revenue through preferred vendors. Listen in for Sunny’s perspective of Reffkin’s emphasis on female entrepreneurs and learn more about what differentiates Compass—and what makes it just like all the other brokerages.
What’s Discussed:
Compass’ strategic decision to publish their vision statement
The suite of products and services Compass offers their agents
CEO Robert Reffkin’s inspiring personal story and message
Sunny’s insight on the value of Compass’ tech feedback loop
Compass’ contract provision around using the tools provided
Why Compass cannot guarantee a consistent user experience
How Compass can provide continuity in terms of resources
Greg’s take on why wooing agents with a payout is problematic
The potential for Compass to leverage the ‘referral economy’
Sunny’s view of Reffkin’s message on female entrepreneurs
Sunny’s idea for brokers to execute on the COO offering locally
Resources:
Glenn Kellman’s Gender Pay Study
Connect with Rob and Greg:
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