Attacking New Zealand - A Red Team View

08/05/21 • 11 min

A notional red team of industry experts (from 'Buranda'), takes on the challenge of attacking New Zealand with the objective of bringing down the Government and bringing in a system that is more open to its aims and views. No invasion or occupation is involved in this scenario which focuses instead on targetting the essentials of life and creating division between various sectors of society.
Nothing is out of scope in this brief outline which addresses politics (including a fifth column element) fuel, energy, water, food, health, ports and shipping, submarine cables, cyber warfare, space and satellites as well as aviation.
The attack scenario sets up an 'us and them' situation between the North and South Island as well as seeking to fracture relations with South Pacific neighbours. All this occurs while New Zealand's friends are decisively engaged elsewhere.

Previous Episode

National Security Posture or Pose?

The focus of this episode is national security posture options for New Zealand. Simon Ewing-Jarvie and Heather Roy discuss four options:
1. Maintaining armed alignment with traditional allies and partners
2. Seeking new treaties, allies and partners more closely aligned to protecting our current economic interests
3. Adopting a strategy of armed non-alignment
4. Armed neutrality
The hosts discuss the risks and gains of each option; highlighting the usefulness of assessing these in a red team exercise, war game or simulation.
Audience members who wish to delve deeper into this topic are invited to read the article 'Divergent Options' at unclas.com or search for the host's publication on the topic at divergentoptions.org. Another recommended work is by Dr Reuben Steff in the New Zealand National Security Journal titled "The Biden Administration and New Zealand's Strategic Options: Asymmetric Hedging, Tight Five Eyes Alignment and Armed Neutrality."

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Defending New Zealand 1 - Armed Neutral and Long Range

This is the first episode in a series that discusses New Zealand's defence needs and a brief insight into current shortfalls. While acknowledging that the people within the current New Zealand Defence Force are as good or better than those who have gone before, Simon Ewing-Jarvie bluntly points out that, in a war of commitment such as the defence of the country, the NZDF would cease to be a functional fighting force in a matter of hours without allied assistance. This episode discusses long range requirements.
The model that this series is premised on is the author's own. Establishing the national security requirements as an armed neutral state then subtracting current capabilities derives the GROSS National Security Deficit. By then factoring in the capabilities that can be relied upon from allies leaves the NET National Security Deficit. It is acknowledged that this will vary between risk scenarios.
To succeed, New Zealand's defensive posture must be based on an interlocking set of principles:

Self Reliance - Being able to produce or have sufficient stocks of essentials in time of conflict
Deterrence - Making the cost of an attack on New Zealand not worth any potential gains
Detection - Generating situational awareness in all domains
Interdiction - Both strategic and tactical
CADDO - The author's own model of Continuous, Asymmetric, Disconnected Defensive Operations (What some would call resistance to an occupying force).

Importantly, these discussions are about defending all 6 million New Zealanders (7 million by 2050) which includes the 1 million currently living overseas - rather than the continental defence of the country.