5-Day US Planting Window Ahead?

04/19/24 • 20 min

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Improvements in Drought Conditions Across Corn Belt: Widespread precipitation alleviates drought conditions in the majority of the Corn Belt, particularly in southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northeast Iowa, and Michigan. However, flash drought conditions emerge in parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. 🌧️🌽🌾
Israel's Drone Strike in Iran: Israeli drones struck targets in western Iran, with Iran claiming the strike was unsuccessful. Despite initial market rallies in crude oil and wheat futures, prices quickly retreated. 🇮🇷🇮🇱🛸
Argentina's Corn Crop Estimate Reduced: USDA lowers its estimate for Argentina's corn crop to 51mmt, citing stunt disease, dry weather, and reduced planted acres. Forecast for the 2024/2025 season predicts further decline to 48mmt with fewer planted acres due to disease and lower prices. 🌽🇦🇷📉
Expansion of E15 Sales Expected: EPA set to announce temporary expansion of E15 sales from June 1 to September 15, following senators' push for increased energy security amid geopolitical tensions. Earlier approval for year-round sales in eight Midwestern states starting April 2025. 🌽⛽🔋
Bitcoin Halving Impact: J.P. Morgan Chase and Deutsche Bank suggest bitcoin halving won't boost prices, but rather prompt unprofitable miners to exit, leading to market consolidation. Regulatory changes and Federal Reserve rate cuts expected to maintain high bitcoin prices. 🪙📉📈

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Why is Biden Doing "Trump Stuff?" (China Tariffs)

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Biden's Tariff Proposal on Chinese Imports: President Biden suggests increasing tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum imports from 7.5% to 25%, aiming to address trade imbalances and protect domestic industries. 🇨🇳🇺🇸🛢️
Concerns Over Argentina's Corn Crop: The Rosario Grains Exchange likely to further reduce Argentina's corn crop estimate due to a disease spread by leafhoppers, causing significant losses; only 15.3% of the crop harvested so far. 🌽🇦🇷📉
US Ethanol Production Decline: Weekly US ethanol output drops by 7%, while stocks remain relatively stable; gasoline demand shows slight improvement compared to last year. 🇺🇸🌽⛽
Oil Price Decline Despite Geopolitical Tensions: Oil prices fall over 3% despite Iran-Israel tensions, as market awaits potential supply disruptions and Israel's anticipated retaliation against Iran. 🛢️🇮🇷🇮🇱
Decline in Ukraine's Grain Production: Ukraine's grain production in 2023 reaches 60mmt, expected to decline by 13% in 2024 due to decreased planted acres, affecting wheat, corn, and barley output. 🌾🇺🇦📉

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Is the Western Corn Belt Drought Being Busted??

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Limited Rainfall in US Corn Belt: Rainfall will be limited over the next few days, with return expected later in the week. A significant accumulation of 1-3" of rain forecasted in western Corn Belt, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan during the 5-10 day period, potentially alleviating drought conditions, particularly in Iowa. Below-normal temperatures expected in the eastern Corn Belt this week. 🌧️🌽🌾
Brazilian Dominance in Chinese Market: Brazilian corn and soybeans maintain dominance in the Chinese market. China's soybean imports from the US plummet by 50% in March, while Brazilian soybean imports surge by 81%. Chinese corn imports from Brazil also spike by 72%, with US imports plunging by 78%. High prices and reduced feed demand contribute to the decline in Chinese imports. 🇨🇳🌽🌱
Large Net Short Position Held by Fund Traders: Fund traders maintain historically large net short positions across the grain complex. Net sales of corn and soybeans contracts, along with SRW wheat, persist. The CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders data reveals continued bearish sentiment. 📉💼💵
US House Passes Foreign Aid Package: The US House of Representatives approves a $95 billion foreign aid package, with significant allocations for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. Senate expected to vote on and pass the bill, despite requests to include US border legislation. House also approves bill to ban TikTok unless parent company divests from app. 🏛️💰🤝
Neutral Cattle on Feed Report: Friday's Cattle on Feed report viewed as neutral and somewhat supportive of the cattle market. Cattle on feed slightly lower than anticipated, with placements significantly lower than expected. Marketings also below pre-report estimates, contributing to the report's neutral to somewhat friendly outlook. 🐄📊📈
Flash Sales Reported by USDA: USDA reports multiple flash sales, including corn sales to Mexico and soybean sales to unknown destinations for both the current and upcoming marketing years. The sales contribute to ongoing export activity amidst changing market dynamics. 🌽🚢🌱