Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🌿 Lee Zeldin Nominated for EPA Head
President-Elect Trump's choice to lead the EPA has sparked controversy. Lee Zeldin, former New York congressman, will focus on deregulation to boost American business and energy dominance. Critics, including environmental groups, argue that Zeldin is unqualified and will harm environmental policies, especially concerning biofuels. His nomination will require Senate confirmation.
📉 ADM Faces Financial Reporting Delays
ADM (Archer Daniels Midland) has requested more time to file its third-quarter financial report after accounting errors were discovered. This follows a previous delay earlier this year, marking a rough period for the company, which has seen its stock fall by 29% year-to-date. These errors have affected financial data spanning six years.
🌾 Russia's Grain Production Forecast Includes Occupied Ukrainian Land
Russia's agriculture ministry forecasts a 130 million metric ton (mmt) grain harvest for 2024, a 12% drop from 2023. This includes grain from Ukrainian regions under Russian control. There are concerns that these figures may not reflect the true harvest numbers, as Russia allegedly includes Ukrainian data in a bid to hide its losses from the ongoing conflict.
🌾 US Winter Wheat Conditions Improve
US winter wheat conditions improved due to recent rainfall. As of Sunday, 44% of the crop was rated good to excellent, up from 41% the prior week. Kansas saw the biggest improvement in conditions, along with Oklahoma, Texas, and Nebraska. The crop is 91% planted, near the average of 93%.
🌱 US Row Crop Harvest Nears Completion
The US corn harvest reached 95% completion, the fastest pace since 2005, while soybeans were 96% harvested. North Carolina and Colorado are the only states running below-average harvest pace. Meanwhile, Louisiana, Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota have completed their harvests.
📦 US Exports: Soybean Shipments Decline Slightly
Soybean exports were slightly down last week at 2.3mmt, but still up by 13% compared to the same week last year. Corn shipments also saw a slight decline but were up by 10% versus the same week last year. Wheat shipments were stronger, increasing by 69% from the prior week.
📈 Flash Sales for US Corn
US corn export sales continue to perform well, with a flash sale of 110,500mt (4 million bushels) to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. Corn sales are up 48% compared to last year, reflecting strong international demand.

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0:00 South American Crop Prospects
5:55 Drought in Cattle Country
7:48 US Dollar and Commodities
9:41 Bitcoin and Mystery Buyer(s)
🌱 Brazilian Soybean and Corn Planting Ahead of Last Year's Pace
Soybean planting in Brazil is progressing faster than last year. By last Thursday, 67% of the soybean area was planted, compared to 61% at the same time last year. AgRural reports that planting is moving smoothly across most of Brazil, with only a few areas affected by limited rainfall. First corn planting in Brazil is also ahead of schedule at 72% planted, although slightly below last year’s 76%.
🌱 Argentine Soybean Planting
Argentina’s soybean planting is expected to continue at a brisk pace, supported by recent rainfall across the country. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports 8% of the anticipated soybean acreage has been planted, with 2.1 million acres planted over the past week. The forecast indicates hot and dry weather conditions in the coming days, which should allow for continued planting progress.
🐄 US Cattle Herd Expansion Impacted by Drought
US cattle herd rebuilding has slowed due to the persistence of drought in key cattle-producing regions. While many expected the herd to expand following spring moisture, 50% of US cattle are currently located in drought-stricken areas. This has kept producers from holding back bred females for expansion. Beef prices are surging to historic highs, driven by limited cattle supplies.
💵 Dollar Strengthens Post-Trump Victory
The US dollar has surged following Donald Trump's presidential victory. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.7% to its highest level since November 2023. Expectations that Trump's trade policies would strengthen the dollar have been a key driver, alongside the quarter-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve last week. The yen and euro both saw declines against the dollar. With Trump’s proposed policies, the dollar could continue to appreciate, especially with trade war concerns.
💰 Bitcoin Sets New Highs, Eyes $100,000
Bitcoin reached a new all-time high on Monday, surpassing $88,000. There is growing speculation that it could hit $100,000 by the end of the year, partly driven by Trump’s victory and the rise in CME futures trading for Bitcoin. Although Trump’s potential focus on cryptocurrencies is uncertain, the recent surge in Bitcoin’s price is a key development for traders in the space.
Conclusion:
The Brazilian and Argentine planting seasons are progressing positively, which may affect global soybean supply. US cattle producers are facing challenges with expanding their herds due to drought, driving beef prices higher. The US Dollar and Bitcoin markets are reacting strongly to Trump’s victory, signaling potential continued volatility and growth in these assets. The agricultural market continues to respond to weather patterns and trade policy developments, with implications for both global grain production and US livestock markets. Stay tuned as these market developments unfold!

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Here's a summary of the latest developments affecting agriculture and commodities markets:
🌾 USDA Cuts Corn and Soybean Production Estimates
USDA reduced its soybean yield estimate to 51.7 bpa from 53.1 bpa, cutting production by 121 million bushels. This was a surprise to the market. Demand estimates for soybeans were also lowered, particularly for crush and exports, though the reductions in supply were partially offset.
The corn yield estimate was adjusted down slightly to 183.1 bpa from 183.8 bpa, with no change in demand estimates for corn.
🌍 Trump Administration Update
Robert Lighthizer, the former US Trade Representative, has not yet been invited to return to his post in the new administration, despite expectations. He played a key role in the China trade war and the renegotiation of NAFTA. Speculation continues that he may take on a different cabinet role, such as Treasury Secretary or Commerce Secretary. Meanwhile, China's top ambassador to the US has reiterated that tariffs benefit no one, signaling ongoing tensions in trade relations.
🌱 California Climate Rules Update
California's Air Resources Board approved new climate rules that could impact fuel prices significantly. The plan raises emissions reduction targets, supports zero-emission vehicle charging infrastructure, and removes incentives for methane capture on dairy farms. Environmental groups have criticized the move, especially its potential to increase fuel prices by up to 65 cents per gallon.
📊 "The Funds" Shift to Net-Long in Corn
Large money managers (the funds) moved to a net-long position in corn, buying 39,000 contracts. This is the first net-long position in corn since August 2023, a dramatic shift from a record net-short position earlier in the year. Funds were also net buyers of soybeans and SRW wheat.
📉 Moody's Lowers ADM Credit Outlook
Moody's downgraded its credit outlook for ADM due to continued accounting errors. Despite the company maintaining an A2 rating, this downgrade reflects ongoing issues with financial reporting that have already led to significant market value loss for the company.
🌧️ Weekend Precipitation in Hard Red Winter Wheat Areas
Substantial precipitation of 1" to 3" was recorded across hard red winter wheat areas in Kansas, Colorado, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle. While this brings some relief, HRW wheat futures remain under technical pressure due to poor crop ratings, exacerbated by dry conditions earlier in the season.
📦 Flash Sales Reported by USDA
US exporters reported several flash sales last Friday, including:
107,000mt of soybeans to China
132,000mt of soybeans to unknown destinations
200,490mt of corn to unknown destinations
These sales contribute to strong export performance for both soybeans and corn, further supporting the market.
Conclusion:
USDA's crop adjustments and ongoing political developments add to the market's volatility. Traders are watching closely, as both domestic production and global trade dynamics shift. The Trump administration's potential moves on tariffs and trade, especially with China, could keep agriculture markets in flux. Stay tuned for updates on trade policies and crop conditions as the year progresses! 🌽🌍