Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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AgMarket.Net: www.agmarket.net

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🌿 Lee Zeldin Nominated for EPA Head
President-Elect Trump's choice to lead the EPA has sparked controversy. Lee Zeldin, former New York congressman, will focus on deregulation to boost American business and energy dominance. Critics, including environmental groups, argue that Zeldin is unqualified and will harm environmental policies, especially concerning biofuels. His nomination will require Senate confirmation.
📉 ADM Faces Financial Reporting Delays
ADM (Archer Daniels Midland) has requested more time to file its third-quarter financial report after accounting errors were discovered. This follows a previous delay earlier this year, marking a rough period for the company, which has seen its stock fall by 29% year-to-date. These errors have affected financial data spanning six years.
🌾 Russia's Grain Production Forecast Includes Occupied Ukrainian Land
Russia's agriculture ministry forecasts a 130 million metric ton (mmt) grain harvest for 2024, a 12% drop from 2023. This includes grain from Ukrainian regions under Russian control. There are concerns that these figures may not reflect the true harvest numbers, as Russia allegedly includes Ukrainian data in a bid to hide its losses from the ongoing conflict.
🌾 US Winter Wheat Conditions Improve
US winter wheat conditions improved due to recent rainfall. As of Sunday, 44% of the crop was rated good to excellent, up from 41% the prior week. Kansas saw the biggest improvement in conditions, along with Oklahoma, Texas, and Nebraska. The crop is 91% planted, near the average of 93%.
🌱 US Row Crop Harvest Nears Completion
The US corn harvest reached 95% completion, the fastest pace since 2005, while soybeans were 96% harvested. North Carolina and Colorado are the only states running below-average harvest pace. Meanwhile, Louisiana, Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota have completed their harvests.
📦 US Exports: Soybean Shipments Decline Slightly
Soybean exports were slightly down last week at 2.3mmt, but still up by 13% compared to the same week last year. Corn shipments also saw a slight decline but were up by 10% versus the same week last year. Wheat shipments were stronger, increasing by 69% from the prior week.
📈 Flash Sales for US Corn
US corn export sales continue to perform well, with a flash sale of 110,500mt (4 million bushels) to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. Corn sales are up 48% compared to last year, reflecting strong international demand.

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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
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0:00 USDA Guessing Game
2:15 Ethanol Production Improves
4:52 Argentina Update
6:27 CF Industries Profits Decline
7:50 Black Sea Drone Strike
8:48 National Security Threat
Catch the latest updates in the agricultural world! 🌍 Join us as we delve into the USDA's Ag Outlook Forum estimates, released this morning, shedding light on the projected 2024 US corn and soybean acreage and yields. Get insights into traders' expectations and how they could shape market dynamics moving forward! 📊
Learn about the recent uptick in US ethanol production and its implications on the energy sector. Discover how Argentina's crops are benefiting from much-needed rainfall, potentially impacting global supply and prices. 🌧️
Find out why profits have tumbled for CF Industries Holdings, the world's largest corn fertilizer producer, and how it relates to broader agricultural trends. Explore the latest developments in the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, including Ukraine's destruction of a Russian warship and concerns over Russian military capabilities. 🚢💥
Stay informed about critical issues affecting agriculture and international relations. Don't miss out on these essential updates! 🔍💡

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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

0:00 Tariffs and Lower Markets
5:10 Historic Corn Belt Flooding
8:07 Ethanol Production
9:00 China Ship Sales Decline
10:43 Flash Sale
Trump's Trade War Escalates: New Tariffs Imposed 🌍💥
President Trump escalated the trade war on Wednesday, announcing a 10% tariff on all imports set to take effect on Saturday. Additionally, he introduced a reciprocal tariff policy targeting 180 nations, including the EU (20%), Vietnam (46%), Taiwan (32%), and a 34% tariff on China, bringing the total tariff rate on Chinese goods to 54%. These reciprocal tariffs will begin on April 9, with Canada and Mexico exempt, though imports not covered by the USMCA agreement will face a 25% tariff. Corn and soybean futures dropped sharply in response, while the US stock market fell to fresh lows overnight. 📉💰
Historic Flooding Forecast for the Corn Belt 🌧️🌊
Severe flooding is expected in the Corn Belt, with a storm system that started on Wednesday causing significant rainfall. Areas in Southeast Missouri, Southern Indiana, Southern Illinois, Kentucky, and Southern Ohio are at risk of receiving between 10 to 15 inches of rain, with more moderate amounts expected in other regions. Over 32 million people are under a flood watch, and the flooding is expected to impact agricultural production in these regions. 🌽🌾
US Ethanol Production Increases 📈🌱
US ethanol production increased by 1% last week, totaling 1.06 million barrels per day. Ethanol stocks decreased by 2.7% but are still 1% higher compared to the same time last year. Despite the recent dip, stock levels remain historically high. Ethanol production margins are currently near breakeven levels, according to Reuters data. 📊💡
Chinese Ship Sales Decline Amid Port Fee Threat 🚢❌
Chinese ship sales dropped sharply in March due to President Trump's threat to impose a $1 million port fee on Chinese vessels. This has raised concerns in the global shipping industry, particularly regarding the impact on US grain exports. The American Farm Bureau Federation estimates that the proposed shipping fees could increase soybean export costs by 9.5 to 27.5 cents per bushel. 🚢📉
Flash Sale of Soybean Cake and Meal 🛍️🌾
US exporters sold 135,000mt of soybean cake and meal to the Philippines for the 2024/2025 marketing year. This marks the first flash sale of soybean cake and meal for the year. 🌱