Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Joe Vaclavik

Joe Vaclavik and Mackenzie Johnston discuss the grain markets, the business of farming, news related to agriculture, and a variety of other topics.

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Top 10 Grain Markets and Other Stuff Episodes

Goodpods has curated a list of the 10 best Grain Markets and Other Stuff episodes, ranked by the number of listens and likes each episode have garnered from our listeners. If you are listening to Grain Markets and Other Stuff for the first time, there's no better place to start than with one of these standout episodes. If you are a fan of the show, vote for your favorite Grain Markets and Other Stuff episode by adding your comments to the episode page.

"A Meal Rally is a Real Rally" (Soybean Market)

Grain Markets and Other Stuff

03/07/23 • 8 min

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Argentina Soybean DISASTER - Half of Production Lost??

Grain Markets and Other Stuff

03/03/23 • 15 min

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
AgMarket.Net: www.agmarket.net

What Trade War?? Export Sales are STRONG!

Grain Markets and Other Stuff

03/14/25 • 21 min

Wheat Export Sales Surge 📈🌾
US wheat export sales soared last week, reaching 783,400 metric tons (29 million bushels), which was 83% higher than the previous four-week average. Panama was the largest buyer. Corn and soybean sales were also strong, with corn sales at 967,300 metric tons and soybean sales surpassing expectations at 751,700 metric tons. Mexico and China were the largest buyers for corn and soybeans, respectively. 🌽🌱
Trump Threatens 200% Tariff on European Wine 🍷💥
In retaliation for the EU's proposed 50% tariff on American whiskey, President Trump threatened a 200% tariff on European wine, champagne, and spirits. This trade spat comes after Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs. The EU has also planned tariffs on various US agricultural goods. Both Canada and the EU are significant buyers of US ethanol, and the situation could have a ripple effect on ethanol exports. 🍇🇪🇺
Brazil’s Soybean Production Forecast Raised 📊🌿
Brazil's soybean production forecast was increased to 167.4 million metric tons, up 1% from February's estimate, despite hot and dry conditions in the south. China's demand for Brazilian exports is expected to rise due to the ongoing US-China trade conflict. Meanwhile, Brazil’s total corn production forecast was slightly raised to 122.8 million metric tons, marking a 6.1% increase from last season. 🇧🇷🌾
Treasury Secretary Stresses Long-Term Economic Focus 📉💼
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized the Trump administration’s focus on long-term growth, stating that short-term market volatility is not a concern. He assured that well-implemented policies would foster economic growth and job creation in the future. This comes amid the stock market's correction due to ongoing trade tensions. 📊📈
Drought Conditions Persist in US Corn Belt 🌾🌧
Scattered rainfall across the Corn Belt led to improvements in drought conditions in some areas, but others, particularly in western Illinois and western Minnesota, saw worsening conditions due to a lack of rain. The High Plains also experienced scattered rainfall, with conditions improving in Nebraska and Kansas. However, southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma are seeing worsening drought conditions. 🌾🌞

How Will EU Tariffs Impact Demand for US Grains??

Grain Markets and Other Stuff

03/13/25 • 12 min

EU Tariffs Could Impact U.S. Agricultural Exports 🌾
President Trump's 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum prompted the European Union to announce retaliatory tariffs on up to $28 billion worth of U.S. imports, including agricultural products like corn, soybeans, beef, and poultry. These tariffs could hurt the EU livestock industry, but the EU remains open to negotiations, with feed grains possibly playing a role in easing tensions. 🚜
Canadian Farmers Shifting Crops Due to Tariff Threats 🍁🌾
Canadian farmers are expected to plant more wheat (+2.6%) and less canola (-1.7%) this year. However, the tariff threats from the U.S. and China have led to uncertainty in planting intentions. China announced a 100% tariff on Canadian canola oil and meal, while Trump’s 25% tariff on Canadian goods will start in April, adding further pressure on the market. 🌱
Hedge Funds Cut Market Exposure Amid Trade and Economic Concerns 📉
Concerns about tariffs and a slowing economy prompted hedge funds to reduce their market exposure. The S&P 500 dropped nearly 9% from its peak, with a significant reduction in positions from industrial stocks. This sharp de-grossing follows fears of lower consumer spending, corporate profit declines, and a potential recession. 📉
U.S. Ethanol Stocks Remain High Amid Steady Production ⛽
U.S. ethanol stocks rose slightly to 27.4 million barrels, remaining at historically high levels. Despite a minor week-over-week drop in production, ethanol output remains above last year's levels. Gasoline demand showed a slight increase, with ethanol stocks still reflective of early COVID-era levels. ⛽📊
US Consumer Prices Rise at Slowest Pace in Four Months 📉💵
Inflation increased by 0.2% in February, slower than January’s 0.5% rise and below expectations. On an annual basis, inflation reached 2.8%, a decrease from January’s 3%. Despite this moderation, there are concerns that tariffs could drive prices higher in the coming months. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates as policymakers monitor inflation. 📊

Trump EPA Pick: Bad for Biofuels??

Grain Markets and Other Stuff

11/13/24 • 10 min

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
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🌿 Lee Zeldin Nominated for EPA Head
President-Elect Trump's choice to lead the EPA has sparked controversy. Lee Zeldin, former New York congressman, will focus on deregulation to boost American business and energy dominance. Critics, including environmental groups, argue that Zeldin is unqualified and will harm environmental policies, especially concerning biofuels. His nomination will require Senate confirmation.
📉 ADM Faces Financial Reporting Delays
ADM (Archer Daniels Midland) has requested more time to file its third-quarter financial report after accounting errors were discovered. This follows a previous delay earlier this year, marking a rough period for the company, which has seen its stock fall by 29% year-to-date. These errors have affected financial data spanning six years.
🌾 Russia's Grain Production Forecast Includes Occupied Ukrainian Land
Russia's agriculture ministry forecasts a 130 million metric ton (mmt) grain harvest for 2024, a 12% drop from 2023. This includes grain from Ukrainian regions under Russian control. There are concerns that these figures may not reflect the true harvest numbers, as Russia allegedly includes Ukrainian data in a bid to hide its losses from the ongoing conflict.
🌾 US Winter Wheat Conditions Improve
US winter wheat conditions improved due to recent rainfall. As of Sunday, 44% of the crop was rated good to excellent, up from 41% the prior week. Kansas saw the biggest improvement in conditions, along with Oklahoma, Texas, and Nebraska. The crop is 91% planted, near the average of 93%.
🌱 US Row Crop Harvest Nears Completion
The US corn harvest reached 95% completion, the fastest pace since 2005, while soybeans were 96% harvested. North Carolina and Colorado are the only states running below-average harvest pace. Meanwhile, Louisiana, Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota have completed their harvests.
📦 US Exports: Soybean Shipments Decline Slightly
Soybean exports were slightly down last week at 2.3mmt, but still up by 13% compared to the same week last year. Corn shipments also saw a slight decline but were up by 10% versus the same week last year. Wheat shipments were stronger, increasing by 69% from the prior week.
📈 Flash Sales for US Corn
US corn export sales continue to perform well, with a flash sale of 110,500mt (4 million bushels) to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. Corn sales are up 48% compared to last year, reflecting strong international demand.

USDA's Guessing Game

Grain Markets and Other Stuff

02/15/24 • 10 min

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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 USDA Guessing Game
2:15 Ethanol Production Improves
4:52 Argentina Update
6:27 CF Industries Profits Decline
7:50 Black Sea Drone Strike
8:48 National Security Threat
Catch the latest updates in the agricultural world! 🌍 Join us as we delve into the USDA's Ag Outlook Forum estimates, released this morning, shedding light on the projected 2024 US corn and soybean acreage and yields. Get insights into traders' expectations and how they could shape market dynamics moving forward! 📊
Learn about the recent uptick in US ethanol production and its implications on the energy sector. Discover how Argentina's crops are benefiting from much-needed rainfall, potentially impacting global supply and prices. 🌧️
Find out why profits have tumbled for CF Industries Holdings, the world's largest corn fertilizer producer, and how it relates to broader agricultural trends. Explore the latest developments in the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, including Ukraine's destruction of a Russian warship and concerns over Russian military capabilities. 🚢💥
Stay informed about critical issues affecting agriculture and international relations. Don't miss out on these essential updates! 🔍💡

China Retaliates, Grains Crash - 34% Tariffs on ALL Imports from US

Grain Markets and Other Stuff

04/04/25 • 21 min

0:00 China Retaliates
1:49 More Direct Payments are Coming
7:08 Stock Market Crash
11:11 Mexico Won't Retaliate
13:52 Severe Storms
17:48 Drought Monitor
20:06 Export Sales
Farm Aid Package: Potential for Direct Payments 💸🌾
The possibility of more direct financial aid for farmers affected by tariffs is still under consideration. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins stated that the Trump administration will decide in the coming months whether to provide assistance to offset losses from the ongoing trade disputes. The previous trade war resulted in a $23 billion bailout for farmers, and this time, the aid package could be much larger due to tariffs on multiple countries. This discussion comes as $10 billion in ECAP funds are already being distributed. 🌽🌍
Stock Market Decline Amid Tariff Concerns 📉💥
The stock market plummeted on Thursday, with the S&P 500 hitting its largest single-day drop since 2020, falling nearly 5%. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq also faced sharp losses. Concerns over the impact of President Trump's new tariffs, coupled with fears of a potential recession, contributed to the decline. J.P. Morgan predicts that a recession could be likely if tariffs remain unchanged. 📉💰
Commodity Index Takes a Hit ⬇️📊
The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index saw its biggest drop in over two years, falling by 2.5%. While oil and steel were excluded from Trump’s tariffs, commodity prices were still impacted by market fears of a global economic slowdown. In addition, OPEC+ announced plans to increase oil production, which caused a sharp decline in WTI crude prices, marking its steepest loss since July 2022. 🛢️📉
Mexico's Response to Tariffs 🇲🇽📦
Mexico has decided not to retaliate against U.S. tariffs but instead will introduce its own comprehensive tariff program. Mexico remains the largest importer of U.S. corn, and Trump’s 25% tariff will apply to certain imports not covered by the USMCA trade agreement. While Mexico avoids reciprocal tariffs, its agricultural sector may still be impacted by trade disruptions. 🌽⚖️
Severe Storms Cause Damage Across the US 🌪️💨
Severe storms, including tornadoes and heavy rainfall, caused extensive damage from Oklahoma to Indiana, with at least six fatalities reported. Major flooding is expected, especially along the Mississippi River and in parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. The storm system is forecast to continue through the weekend, with some areas receiving over a foot of rain. 🌧️🌪️
Drought Monitor Update 🌾💧
USDA’s weekly drought monitor reported improvements in drought conditions across parts of the Corn Belt, especially in northern areas like Wisconsin, Michigan, and southern Minnesota, following a winter storm. However, drought conditions persist in about 28% of the region, impacting areas crucial for corn, soybeans, and wheat production. 🌾💦

Corn and Soybeans GAP Lower on Trump Tariff Announcement

Grain Markets and Other Stuff

04/03/25 • 12 min

0:00 Tariffs and Lower Markets
5:10 Historic Corn Belt Flooding
8:07 Ethanol Production
9:00 China Ship Sales Decline
10:43 Flash Sale
Trump's Trade War Escalates: New Tariffs Imposed 🌍💥
President Trump escalated the trade war on Wednesday, announcing a 10% tariff on all imports set to take effect on Saturday. Additionally, he introduced a reciprocal tariff policy targeting 180 nations, including the EU (20%), Vietnam (46%), Taiwan (32%), and a 34% tariff on China, bringing the total tariff rate on Chinese goods to 54%. These reciprocal tariffs will begin on April 9, with Canada and Mexico exempt, though imports not covered by the USMCA agreement will face a 25% tariff. Corn and soybean futures dropped sharply in response, while the US stock market fell to fresh lows overnight. 📉💰
Historic Flooding Forecast for the Corn Belt 🌧️🌊
Severe flooding is expected in the Corn Belt, with a storm system that started on Wednesday causing significant rainfall. Areas in Southeast Missouri, Southern Indiana, Southern Illinois, Kentucky, and Southern Ohio are at risk of receiving between 10 to 15 inches of rain, with more moderate amounts expected in other regions. Over 32 million people are under a flood watch, and the flooding is expected to impact agricultural production in these regions. 🌽🌾
US Ethanol Production Increases 📈🌱
US ethanol production increased by 1% last week, totaling 1.06 million barrels per day. Ethanol stocks decreased by 2.7% but are still 1% higher compared to the same time last year. Despite the recent dip, stock levels remain historically high. Ethanol production margins are currently near breakeven levels, according to Reuters data. 📊💡
Chinese Ship Sales Decline Amid Port Fee Threat 🚢❌
Chinese ship sales dropped sharply in March due to President Trump's threat to impose a $1 million port fee on Chinese vessels. This has raised concerns in the global shipping industry, particularly regarding the impact on US grain exports. The American Farm Bureau Federation estimates that the proposed shipping fees could increase soybean export costs by 9.5 to 27.5 cents per bushel. 🚢📉
Flash Sale of Soybean Cake and Meal 🛍️🌾
US exporters sold 135,000mt of soybean cake and meal to the Philippines for the 2024/2025 marketing year. This marks the first flash sale of soybean cake and meal for the year. 🌱

Will Biofuel FINALLY Save the Soybean Market?? + Liberation Day Jitters

Grain Markets and Other Stuff

04/02/25 • 12 min

0:00 Soybeans and Biofuel Push
3:23 "Liberation Day"
5:04 Heavy US Rainfall
7:55 Farmer Sentiment Declines
9:54 StoneX Cuts Brazil Crop Estimates
Biofuel Groups Push for Higher Diesel Mandates ⚡💡
U.S. oil and biofuel groups, including the American Petroleum Institute, are pushing the EPA to increase federal biomass diesel blending mandates to 5.5–5.75 billion gallons, up from the current 3.35 billion gallons. The ethanol blending requirement is expected to stay at 15 billion gallons. However, smaller refiners and fuel retailers oppose the increase, warning of higher fuel costs and potential job losses. Additionally, some industry members are calling for the reinstatement of the blenders tax credit, arguing that the expired credit kept fuel prices lower for consumers. 🌱⛽
Trump's Reciprocal Tariffs Begin Today 📅⚖️
President Trump's reciprocal tariffs on all U.S. trading partners go into effect today. Although the specific details of the tariffs will be announced at 3 p.m. Central time, these tariffs are expected to impact U.S. agriculture, with Mexico, Canada, and China being the top buyers of U.S. agricultural products. Retaliatory tariffs could target nearly $27 billion worth of U.S. agricultural goods, potentially harming farmers. Meanwhile, Canada has reportedly decided to avoid counter-tariffs on most food imports from the U.S. 🥩🌾
Heavy Rains to Impact the Central U.S. 🌧️
Rainfall is expected to accumulate across the central U.S. Corn Belt, particularly in southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and parts of Tennessee, Arkansas, and Missouri. Some areas could see between 10 and 16 inches of rain over the next five days, which may impact planting schedules and soil conditions. 🌧️🌽
Farmer Sentiment Drops Amid Trade and Policy Uncertainty 🌾📉
U.S. farmer sentiment fell in March, according to Purdue University's CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The index dropped to 140, a 12-point decrease from February. Falling crop prices and trade policy uncertainty, particularly regarding tariffs, contributed to the decline. A record number of farmers expect exports to decline in the next five years, and nearly two-thirds of respondents anticipate that a second round of Market Facilitation Program payments will be necessary to mitigate trade war impacts. 📉🌾
Brazil’s Soybean and Corn Crops Lowered 🌾📊
Brazil’s soybean crop estimate has been reduced to 167.4 million metric tons due to adverse weather in Rio Grande do Sul. Additionally, the forecasts for both the first and second corn crops have been lowered. Despite these cuts, Brazil's second corn crop is expected to receive normal rainfall over the next 14 days, and no weather issues are currently anticipated. 🌱🌽

5-Day US Planting Window Ahead?

Grain Markets and Other Stuff

04/19/24 • 20 min

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Improvements in Drought Conditions Across Corn Belt: Widespread precipitation alleviates drought conditions in the majority of the Corn Belt, particularly in southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northeast Iowa, and Michigan. However, flash drought conditions emerge in parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. 🌧️🌽🌾
Israel's Drone Strike in Iran: Israeli drones struck targets in western Iran, with Iran claiming the strike was unsuccessful. Despite initial market rallies in crude oil and wheat futures, prices quickly retreated. 🇮🇷🇮🇱🛸
Argentina's Corn Crop Estimate Reduced: USDA lowers its estimate for Argentina's corn crop to 51mmt, citing stunt disease, dry weather, and reduced planted acres. Forecast for the 2024/2025 season predicts further decline to 48mmt with fewer planted acres due to disease and lower prices. 🌽🇦🇷📉
Expansion of E15 Sales Expected: EPA set to announce temporary expansion of E15 sales from June 1 to September 15, following senators' push for increased energy security amid geopolitical tensions. Earlier approval for year-round sales in eight Midwestern states starting April 2025. 🌽⛽🔋
Bitcoin Halving Impact: J.P. Morgan Chase and Deutsche Bank suggest bitcoin halving won't boost prices, but rather prompt unprofitable miners to exit, leading to market consolidation. Regulatory changes and Federal Reserve rate cuts expected to maintain high bitcoin prices. 🪙📉📈

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FAQ

How many episodes does Grain Markets and Other Stuff have?

Grain Markets and Other Stuff currently has 1427 episodes available.

What topics does Grain Markets and Other Stuff cover?

The podcast is about News, Markets, Farm, Business News, Podcasts, Agriculture, Farming and Business.

What is the most popular episode on Grain Markets and Other Stuff?

The episode title 'Morning Audio 10/13/20' is the most popular.

What is the average episode length on Grain Markets and Other Stuff?

The average episode length on Grain Markets and Other Stuff is 10 minutes.

How often are episodes of Grain Markets and Other Stuff released?

Episodes of Grain Markets and Other Stuff are typically released every day.

When was the first episode of Grain Markets and Other Stuff?

The first episode of Grain Markets and Other Stuff was released on Jan 8, 2020.

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Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Joe Vaclavik

Top 10 Grain Markets and Other Stuff Episodes

FAQ

How many episodes does Grain Markets and Other Stuff have?

What topics does Grain Markets and Other Stuff cover?

What is the most popular episode on Grain Markets and Other Stuff?

What is the average episode length on Grain Markets and Other Stuff?

How often are episodes of Grain Markets and Other Stuff released?

When was the first episode of Grain Markets and Other Stuff?

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