Global Data Pod Weekender: The disinflation cometh

08/12/22 • 14 min

July CPI readings signify that a significant slowing of global inflation momentum is underway, largely due to falling energy prices. Softer demand and easing supply pressures should help bring down core as well. But with natural gas prices surging, Europe may stand out with limited disinflation and a contraction by year-end.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Michael Hanson

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Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Michael Hanson

Previous Episode

Global Data Pod Weekender: Takes a lickin’, keeps on tickin’

Despite an onslaught of supply shocks, the global expansion looks to have continued through July. Risks remain elevated, as the July global PMIs this week showed a concerning loss of momentum across sectors and regions—including Asia. However, a huge upside surprise in US job gains suggests employers continue to expand. With recession risks having faded some and headline inflation set to slow sharply, the focus is now on how aggressive central banks will need to act to remove underlying price pressures.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on August 5, 2022.

Next Episode

Global Data Pod Weekender: A touch of the dismal

This week’s data highlight regional divergences: US IP and retail sales were good, China’s domestic demand and real estate investment were not, and a surge in natural gas prices risks deeper downturns across Europe. Elevated inflation should keep DM central banks hiking further – we added 75bp to our BoE call for this year and look for Chair Powell to stress the Fed’s focus on getting inflation down at Jackson Hole next week.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Michael Hanson