Frontrunner - 17th September 2021

Late last Friday the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report; much in line with traders’ expectations it produced neutral to bearish data. World wheat production is seen rising 3.7 million tonnes up to 780 million tonnes, with Australia up 1.5 million tonnes to 31.5 million tonnes and India up 1.52 million tonnes to 109.52 million tonnes. These increases in production estimates are offset by a one million tonne reduction in the Canadian estimate, which is now 23 million tonnes and a reduction in the Argentinian estimate of 500,000 tonnes to a new total of 20 million tonnes. A notable change was that world consumption last season was down four million tonnes, which increases the carry over to this season by the same amount; carry over stocks now sit at 292.46 million tonnes. 2021/22 year end stocks were increased by four million tonnes to 283.22 million tonnes in the August report, but stocks are still seen falling by nine million tonnes on the year. Almost half of global stock - 141 million tonnes - is in China.

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