Frontrunner

June saw a significant decline in wheat prices. Futures prices had peaked at the end of May due to concerns over Russian wheat production for 2024. As these fears eased and prospects for other major wheat producers improved, managed money traders sold heavily.

Consequently, US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures lost 25% of their value. On the last day of June, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported increased wheat and corn stocks compared to the previous year - corn planting is ahead of last year, adding to the bearish sentiment.

During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfo

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Up until Wednesday, the past week has seen the bears take control of the market.

London wheat futures for the November contract opened at £195.75/t last Thursday before shedding £8.50/t to a low of £187.25/t on Tuesday – they recovered by close of play Wednesday.

Paris wheat futures for the December contract followed a similar pattern. They opened at €231.25/t last Thursday, then dropped by €9.75/t to a low of €221.50/t and recovered on Wednesday by closing at €227.50/t.

During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfo

For other topical updates and advice from our experts, subscribe to our blog: www.frontierag.co.uk/blog/subscribe

Follow Frontier Agriculture on Twitter at www.twitter.com/FrontierAg

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The end of last week saw the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) publish its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Any expectations for a bullish report to boost prices were dashed.

World production was cut 1.5 million tonnes to 796.88 million tonnes and there was also a 900,000-tonne rise in consumption which presented a potential marked cut in year-end stocks. However, increases for carry-in Canadian stock to this season to align with StatsCan leaves year-end stocks up 600,000 tonnes on last month to a total of 257.22 million tonnes. Despite this being eight million tonnes down on last year, the market subsequently found ready sellers.

During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfo

For other topical updates and advice from our experts, subscribe to our blog: www.frontierag.co.uk/blog/subscribe

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Earlier this week Statistics Canada (StatsCan) updated its country’s wheat crop estimate, now seeing the crop falling to 22.95 million tonnes. This compares to 35.18 million tonnes last year and, if realised, will be Canada’s smallest crop for 14 years. Persistent excessive heat and dryness for much of the growing season has slashed yield potential for Canada; one of the world’s major wheat exporters.

In its August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut its Canadian wheat estimate to 24 million tonnes from 31.5 million tonnes in July. Last season, Canada exported 27.5 million tonnes of wheat and ranked third in wheat volumes shipped, behind Russia and the EU and just ahead of the US. This season’s crop losses will have a major impact on world wheat trade flows and has been one of the primary bullish price drivers for wheat markets. US spring wheat futures are 60% up on the year as a result of tightening quality wheat supplies.

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FranceAgriMer updated its French wheat crop data this week with changes that highlighted the poor quality of its crop. Domestic and export milling specifications demand that grain specific weight meets at least 76kgs but only 30% of the crop is estimated to have reached that standard. Such poor French wheat crop quality is unusual; last season over 98% of France’s crop met the minimum 76kgs standard. The Hagberg falling number (HFN) is also an issue, with only 67% meeting the minimum 220 specification.

With up to 70% of French wheat only at feed standard, traditional UK feed wheat export homes will be extremely competitive. This likelihood has contributed to the additional negativity seen in UK wheat futures this week.

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