How to be a Superforecaster w/ Warren Hatch, CEO of Good Judgment - EP176

02/21/23 • 47 min

What are the characteristics of superforecasters? How can a superforecasting team be developed? Hear from Warren Hatch, CEO of Good Judgment, a leading global forecasting business based in NYC. Accurate forecasts from Good Judgment superforecasters have included the scale of the pandemic. In early 2020, Good Judgment superforecasters estimated the United States would have over 200,000 deaths from COVID-19 with 99 percent certainty, an estimate that was considered by many as excessive at the time. Warren gives show host Gene Tunny and his colleague Tim Hughes some valuable tips on how to become a superforecaster.

Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored.

What’s covered in EP176

The Good Judgment forecasting business [2:41]
What are the characteristics of superforecasters? [6:47]
How to identify someone who is good at pattern recognition? Raven’s matrices [9:24]
Link between subject matter expertise and forecasting ability [10:40]
What are some of the techniques that are used to help super forecasters rid themselves of prejudice and bias? [12:57]
How large does a super forecasting group need to be to be successful? [20:35]
Tips for being a super forecaster [25:59]
Using the percentages to retrospectively see how you’ve gone [27:56]
Bayes’ Theorem [31:41]
The importance of being open to a range of different views [42:47]

About this episode’s guest: Warren Hatch, CEO of Good Judgment

Warren Hatch is Good Judgment’s second CEO, succeeding co-founder Terry Murray.

Before joining Good Judgment, Hatch was a partner at McAlinden Research, where he identified thematic investment opportunities in global markets for institutional investor clients. Previously, he co-managed a hedge fund seeded by Tiger Management and was a portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley.

Hatch holds a doctorate in politics from Oxford, a masters in Russian and international policy studies from Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, and a bachelors in history from the University of Utah. He is also a CFA® charterholder.

Links relevant to the conversation

Good Judgment’s website and Twitter:

https://goodjudgment.com/ and https://twitter.com/superforecaster?lang=en

BBC Reel featuring Warren Hatch:

https://www.bbc.com/reel/video/p0dwntct/can-you-learn-to-predict-the-future-

Warren’s talk on YouTube which Gene quotes from in the episode:

What is Superforecasting? - Warren Hatch, Good Judgement

Article by Nicholas Gruen:

Making better economic forecasts

Links regarding foxes versus hedgehogs:

https://longnow.org/seminars/02007/jan/26/why-foxes-are-better-forecasters-than-hedgehogs/

https://goodjudgment.com/the-cost-of-overconfidence/

Credits

Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au.

Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored.

What’s covered in EP176

The Good Judgment forecasting business [2:41]
What are the characteristics of superforecasters? [6:47]
How to identify someone who is good at pattern recognition? Raven’s matrices [9:24]
Link between subject matter expertise and forecasting ability [10:40]
What are some of the techniques that are used to help super forecasters rid themselves of prejudice and bias? [12:57]
How large does a super forecasting group need to be to be successful? [20:35]
Tips for being a super forecaster [25:59]
Using the percentages to retrospectively see how you’ve gone [27:56]
Bayes’ Theorem [31:41]
The importance of being open to a range of different views [42:47]

About this episode’s guest: Warren Hatch, CEO of Good Judgment

Warren Hatch is Good Judgment’s second CEO, succeeding co-founder Terry Murray.

Links relevant to the conversation

Good Judgment’s website and Twitter:

https://goodjudgment.com/ and https://twitter.com/superforecaster?lang=en

BBC Reel featuring Warren Hatch:

https://www.bbc.com/reel/video/p0dwntct/can-you-learn-to-predict-the-future-

Warren’s talk on YouTube which Gene quotes from in the episode:

What is Superforecasting? - Warren Hatch, Good Judgement

Article by Nicholas Gruen:

Making better economic forecasts

Links regarding foxes versus hedgehogs:

https://longnow.org/seminars/02007/jan/26/why-foxes-are-better-forecasters-than-hedgehogs/

https://goodjudgment.com/the-cost-of-overconfidence/

Credits

Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au.

Previous Episode

Values-based Capitalism: What is the Aussie Treasurer planning? w/ John Humphreys - EP175

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers argues for values-based capitalism and against neoliberalism in a January 2023 essay in the Australian Monthly magazine. In this episode, show host Gene Tunny discusses the Treasurer’s essay with Dr John Humphreys. John is the Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance (ATA) Chief Economist and the founder of the Australian Liberal Democrats. Gene and John discuss just how literally we should take the Treasurer, the risks of the so-called co-investment approach, and whether the Treasurer is arguing for socialism (or a different -ism).

This episode features audio from an ATA Econ Chat livestream broadcast on 31 January 23. You can watch the whole thing here:

https://www.facebook.com/AusTaxpayers/videos/509950911277607

You can follow the ATA on various platforms including Facebook and YouTube.

You can follow John Humphreys on Twitter.

Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored.

What’s covered in EP175

Jim Chalmers’ idea of co-investing with the private sector [4:21]
Regarding superannuation funds increasingly having social goals that they aim to meet as well as financial goals [9:12]
The Australian stage 3 tax cuts and values-based capitalism: are they compatible? [12:37]
ESG, stakeholder capitalism, and socialism [15:24]
How does the Treasurer intend to direct investment? [23:28]
How a poor government policy can lead to another poor government policy [27:31]
The social impact investment bank expected in the 2023 Australian budget [32:34]

Links relevant to the conversation

Jim Chalmers’ essay Capitalism after the Crises

Clean Energy Finance Corporation Financial Outcomes 2021-22

Australian Government principles for social impact investing | Treasury.gov.au

Impact Investing Won’t Save Capitalism

Credits

Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au.

Please consider signing up to receive our email updates and to access our e-book Top Ten Insights from Economics at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

Next Episode

How performance-based pay can motivate employees, but there are risks - EP177

Can we get people to work harder and perform better if we make their pay performance-related - e.g. with performance bonuses or commissions? Does this work? Are individual or group incentives better? What does the evidence say? We know that people respond to incentives, but, as Gene Tunny and Tim Hughes discuss this episode, getting those incentives right can be tricky.

Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored.

What’s covered in EP177

What is performance-related pay? [0:41]
The types of jobs in which performance-based pay works and doesn’t - e.g. fast food vs real estate [8:09]
The importance of getting incentives right and having transparency [23:16]
Performance-related pay is a difficult thing to put into practice [28:24]
Group-based incentive schemes - evidence from a recent European study of the Hydrema manufacturing business [52:54]