COVID and Wartime – Comparison of economic impacts

12/30/20 • 58 min

A conversation on whether COVID can be compared to wartime, which considers the different scales and scopes of the shocks, and what it all means for prospects for economic recovery. Economics Explored host Gene Tunny, an Australian professional economist and former Treasury official, speaks with businessman Tim Hughes, also based in Brisbane, Australia.

Gene and Tim conclude that a comparison of COVID to wartime isn’t valid. One reason is that World War II required a complete reorganisation of the economy to maximise production for the war effort, while COVID has involved restrictions that have reduced economic activity.

Links relevant to the conversation include:

Comparing COVID-19 to past world war efforts is premature — and presumptuous

US Council on Foreign Relations Backgrounder on The National Debt Dilemma

Brookings on What’s the Fed doing in response to the COVID-19 crisis? What more could it do?

Australia’s Boldest Experiment (excellent book on Australia’s wartime economy)

Robert Gordon’s The Rise and Fall of American Growth (outstanding book by a leading US economist containing a great discussion of America’s wartime economy)

Aussies over-confident after being over-compensated by Gov’t for COVID-recession

Mint security lapse amazes judge (story about theft from the Australian Mint in early-to-mid 2000s)

Finally, the word Gene got stuck on at 6:55, irredentist, means, “a person advocating the restoration to their country of any territory formerly belonging to it”, according to Oxford Languages.

If you'd like to ask a question for Gene to answer in a future episode or if you'd like to make a comment or suggestion, please get in touch via the website. Thanks for listening.

Links relevant to the conversation include:

Comparing COVID-19 to past world war efforts is premature — and presumptuous

US Council on Foreign Relations Backgrounder on The National Debt Dilemma

Brookings on What’s the Fed doing in response to the COVID-19 crisis? What more could it do?

Australia’s Boldest Experiment (excellent book on Australia’s wartime economy)

Robert Gordon’s The Rise and Fall of American Growth (outstanding book by a leading US economist containing a great discussion of America’s wartime economy)

Aussies over-confident after being over-compensated by Gov’t for COVID-recession

Mint security lapse amazes judge (story about theft from the Australian Mint in early-to-mid 2000s)

Finally, the word Gene got stuck on at 6:55, irredentist, means, “a person advocating the restoration to their country of any territory formerly belonging to it”, according to Oxford Languages.

If you'd like to ask a question for Gene to answer in a future episode or if you'd like to make a comment or suggestion, please get in touch via the website. Thanks for listening.

Previous Episode

Regulating Big Tech

It’s been a challenging year 2020, but one positive development is that regulators in the US and Australia have started challenging the Big Tech companies Google and Facebook over alleged misuses of market power. Economics Explored host Gene Tunny provides an update and discusses the important economic concepts and policy issues.

Links relevant to the conversation include:

Joseph Stiglitz on Regulating Big Tech

Don't Be Evil: The case against big tech by Rana Foroohar

Australian Treasury Laws Amendment (News Media and Digital Platforms Mandatory Bargaining Code) Bill 2020

Economics Explored EP58: Tech Giants challenged by the Media and Governments

Economics Explored EP22: Antitrust with Danielle Wood from the Grattan Institute

Economics Explored EP21: Surveillance Capitalism with Darren Brady Nelson

Economics Explored EP16: Big Economic issues for the 2020s

Next Episode

Financing the COVID-19 Government Debt

Dr Begoña Dominguez speaks with Economics Explored host Gene Tunny about her recent video on Financing the COVID-19 Government Debt.

Begoña Dominguez is currently Associate Professor at the School of Economics, University of Queensland. Her research interests are in the area of macroeconomics and, more specifically, in the design of optimal fiscal and monetary policies. Her research has been published in top journals in economics, such as Journal of Monetary Economics and Journal of Economic Theory, among other outlets.

In her video, Begoña outlines three thought provoking proposals to assist with financing the COVID-19 government debt, specifically:

1. coordinated fiscal and monetary policies with a temporary lift in the inflation target, along the lines of what was suggested by Bianchi, Faccini, and Melosi (2020) Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Times of Large Debt: Unity is Strength

2. social contract, whereby an evaluation is done after the pandemic is over to determine whether some groups were under or over-compensated, and that evaluation could guide future tax policies

3. improving the efficiency of the tax system, to ensure that whatever revenue is raised is raised in the most efficient way possible.

In the conversation, Begoña mentions that the US Federal Reserve has modified its inflation target during the pandemic. For further information, see:

What does average inflation targeting mean for investors?