Dwarkesh Podcast

It was a tremendous honor & pleasure to interview Richard Rhodes, Pulitzer Prize winning author of The Making of the Atomic Bomb

We discuss

similarities between AI progress & Manhattan Project (developing a powerful, unprecedented, & potentially apocalyptic technology within an uncertain arms-race situation)

visiting starving former Soviet scientists during fall of Soviet Union

whether Oppenheimer was a spy, & consulting on the Nolan movie

living through WW2 as a child

odds of nuclear war in Ukraine, Taiwan, Pakistan, & North Korea

how the US pulled of such a massive secret wartime scientific & industrial project

Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.

Timestamps

(0:00:00) - Oppenheimer movie

(0:06:22) - Was the bomb inevitable?

(0:29:10) - Firebombing vs nuclear vs hydrogen bombs

(0:49:44) - Stalin & the Soviet program

(1:08:24) - Deterrence, disarmament, North Korea, Taiwan

(1:33:12) - Oppenheimer as lab director

(1:53:40) - AI progress vs Manhattan Project

(1:59:50) - Living through WW2

(2:16:45) - Secrecy

(2:26:34) - Wisdom & war

Bryan Caplan is a Professor of Economics at George Mason University and a New York Times Bestselling author. His most famous works include: The Myth of the Rational Voter, Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids, The Case Against Education, and Open Borders: The Science and Ethics of Immigration.
I talk to Bryan about open borders, the idea trap, UBI, appeasement, China, the education system, and Bryan Caplan's next two books on poverty and housing regulation.

Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.
Follow Bryan on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.

Byrne Hobart writes The Diff, a newsletter about inflections in finance and technology with 24,000+ subscribers.
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.

Episode website here.
The Diff newsletter: https://diff.substack.com/

Follow Byrne on Twitter.

Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes!

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Timestamps:

(0:00:00) - Byrne's one big idea: stagnation

(0:05:50) -Has regulation caused stagnation?

(0:14:00) - FDA retribution

(0:15:15) - Embryo selection

(0:17:32) - Patient longtermism

(0:21:02) - Are there secret societies?

(0:26:53) - College, optionality, and conformity

(0:34:40) - Differentiated credentiations underrated?

(0:39:15) - WIll contientiousness increase in value?

(0:44:26) - Why aren't rationalists more into finance?

(0:48:04) - Rationalists are bad at changing the world.

(0:52:20) - Why read more?

(0:57:10) - Does knowledge have increasing returns?

(1:01:30) - How to escape the middle career trap?

(1:04:48) - Advice for young people

(1:08:40) - How to learn about a subject?

Rohit Krishnan is a venture capitalist who writes about "the strange loops underlying our systems of innovation" at https://www.strangeloopcanon.com.

We discussed J. Storrs. Hall's book Where Is My Flying Car?

Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.

Episode website + transcript here.
Relevant essays from Rohit:

Review of Where Is My Flying Car

The Small Successes Of Nanotech
Isolated Narratives of Progress

Meditations On Regulations

Follow Rohit's Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Why don't we have flying cars?

(08:09) - Should we expect exponential growth?

(18:13) - Machiavelli Effect and centralization of science funding

(27:55) - We need more science fiction

(32:40) - The return of citizen science?

(37:40) - Have we grown too comfortable for progress?

(42:15) - Is India the future of innovation?

(47:15) - Is there an upper-income trap?

(50:30) - Forecasts for technologies

Timestamps:

00:00 Why don't we have flying cars?

08:09 Should we expect exponential growth?

18:13 Machiavelli Effect and centralization of science funding

27:55 We need more science fiction

32:40 The return of citizen science?

37:40 Have we grown too comfortable for progress?

42:15 Is India the future of innovation?

47:15 Is there an upper-income trap?

50:30 Forecasts for technologies

Richard Hanania is the President of the Center for the Study of Partisanship and Ideology and the author of Public Choice Theory and the Illusion of Grand Strategy: How Generals, Weapons Manufacturers, and Foreign Governments Shape American Foreign Policy.

Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.

Episode website here.

Follow Richard on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.

Read Richard's Substack: https://richardhanania.substack.com/

Timestamps:

(0:00:00) - Intro

(0:04:35) - Did war prevent sclerosis?

(0:06:05) - China vs America's grand strategy

(0:10:00) - Does the president have more power over foreign policy?

(0:11:30) - How to deter bad actors?

(0:15:39) - Do some countries have a coherent foreign policy?

(0:16:55) - Why does self-interest matter in foreign but not domestic policy?

(0:21:05) - Should we limit money in politics?

(0:23:47) - Should we credit expertise for nuclear detante and global prosperity?

(0:28:45) - Have international alliances made us safer?

(0:31:57) - Why does academic bueracracy work in some fields?

(0:36:26) - Did academia suck even before diversity?

(0:39:34) - How do we get expertise in social sciences?

(0:42:19) - Why are things more liberal?

(0:43:55) - Why is big tech so liberal?

(0:47:53) - Authoritarian populism vs libertarianism

(0:51:40) - Can authoritarian governments increase fertility?

(0:54:54) - Will increasing fertility be dysgenic?

(0:56:43) - Will not having kids become cool?

(0:59:22) -Advice for libertarians?