What Are The Downsides of Industrial Investing?

10/17/24 • 16 min

Commercial Real Estate Investing From A-Z

What type of industrial building is Chad Griffiths investing in today? What are the downsides of the industrial asset class? Chad Griffiths, Partner and Commercial Real Estate Agent at NAI Commercial Real Estate shares his knowledge.

Read this entire interview here: https://tinyurl.com/mre9kmt4

What are you investing in right now?

I like very simple buildings that can be used for multiple purposes, and my favorite is Flex Industrial. It is any industrial building in an industrial park used for other purposes than manufacturing or warehousing. One building that I have on a main industrial road used to look industrial until we did a renovation on it. We have an office tenant in there, a hot tub store, a flower shop, a cabinet store and we just put a bridal dress company in there, all are nonindustrial uses. Most people would never think of a bridal shop being an industrial building, but this building works for so many different types of uses, that if we have a vacancy come up, we might have 20 to 30 different ideas that people present to us in terms of what could work in the building.

I love that in flex industrial the rates tend to be a lot more competitive than retail. If someone wants to be in the suburbs as an office user, you're typically going to be paying a lot less than being in a dedicated office building in the suburbs, and you could still have light industrial in there as well. It's versatile and it's somewhat removed from warehousing. The one that I have is more in the inner city limits. It's very difficult to build something next door to us to compete with us, whereas, if you have a warehouse outside of city limits and there's available land, you could go and build another building next door, and have the versatility of the different types of tenants, that's my preference. If I could buy one thing going forward, that's what I'd focus on.

There are a lot of people who are opposed to data centers. Anytime a new one gets presented, it seems that there's an opposition group that are trying to fight it and get it blocked. I understand that pushback, but we need these data centers. AI is growing at a crazy pace. We need the data centers on top of it. There's a study that said that by 2030 data centers will take up 9% of the total US grid, that's double from what it is today, and that's already coming off of huge growth in the last few years, as these data centers have become more prevalent. They're taking up a lot of power, the forecast is for them to take up even more power, and they also need water, which is, I think, an under appreciated component of data centers.

What are the downsides of the industrial?

I've said to a lot of people, don't invest in industrial real estate. The biggest thing is, if you make a mistake, it's magnified much more than any other asset class. To illustrate, imagine if you were to buy a 15-unit apartment building, and you bought it in a good area, in a city, you're always going to have tenants in there. You just might need to lower the rent a little bit. If it's $1,200 and you say, "I just want to have I want to make sure my bills are paid." and you undercut the market at $800, you'll always have tenants. It's a matter of what price you need to accept. In industrial, if you buy the wrong building, you might never find a tenant. There are horror stories that I could tell of guys that have bought a property and they've sat vacant for years. If you do that with a single-tenant building, perhaps for the equivalent price of a multi-tenant apartment building, and it sits vacant, you lose 100% of your revenue.

Chad Griffiths

www.industrialize.com

www.youtube.com/@industrialize

Read this entire interview here: https://tinyurl.com/mre9kmt4

What are you investing in right now?

What are the downsides of the industrial?

Chad Griffiths

www.industrialize.com

www.youtube.com/@industrialize

Previous Episode

Top Things to Look For When Buying an Industrial Building

What are the latest news in industrial real estate? How to predict what kind of industrial will be in demand in the future? What are some characteristics of an industrial building that would allow you to have different types of tenants? Chad Griffiths, Partner and Commercial Real Estate Agent at NAI Commercial Real Estate shares his knowledge.

Read this episode here: https://tinyurl.com/mvnjh5sp

What are some of the latest things happening in the industrial asset class?

What I find so fascinating about industrial real estate is that it's such a wide variety of activities and subcategories of industrial. Ten years ago, most people just grouped industrial as one big asset class, and they'd talk about it at a very high level, and that was it. But now, we should be breaking industrial into more subcategories, because if you look at the warehousing or the logistics side of it, that's gone through a pretty big roller coaster on its own that's independent of other subcategories. And just to give you an example, there are so many warehouses, distribution centers, and logistics facilities that went up so crazy over the last couple of years that in some large markets, they were adding 10- 20 million square feet of warehouse space every year. And now, some of those markets where they overbuilt, there's too much inventory. Their vacancy rate has gone from very low to being problematic in some areas, and it's going to take some time to work through that.

If you look at other subcategories of industrial, manufacturing has still done quite well and it is coming back to North America. Manufacturing and warehousing have been on different paths. There's a new one that has only come up within the last few years, which I think deserves its subcategory, and that is the high-tech industrial which could be EV factories or gigafactories, which is a kind of broad term they use to describe battery factories. Tesla has their gigafactories, that name is kind of extended to other companies as well. You also have semiconductor manufacturing plants, like high-tech labs. Essentially, these aren't manufacturing facilities, if you were to picture Boeing making airplanes, that is traditional manufacturing but these high-tech ones are completely different and there are billions of dollars being invested. TSMC is doing a multi-billion dollar facility in Phoenix, and there's another one going up in Ohio and Columbus, they're popping up everywhere and these are massive facilities. And then the other one that you have is data centers which are growing at a crazy pace.

How do you keep up with that as an industrial investor? How do you look ahead and try to understand what you should be investing in the future?

There are two primary things that I do myself. First, you need to be in a city that has population growth for the foreseeable future. It can't be that there's population growth because there's one major project going on, and then once that project is done, perhaps jobs leave with it. You need to be in a big city where there's optimism that the population growth will continue. Population grows, everybody needs more stuff, they're shopping more, they're doing more online shopping and so warehouses and industrial investment follows population growth.

The second thing is to invest in properties that have multiple uses. If that one tenant that's in there, or multiple tenants that are in there, whether it's at the end of their lease, or they go into bankruptcy, or they get bought out and they just no longer need it, they eventually leave. I want to make sure that when that tenant leaves, that building is suitable and compatible for the next tenant without me having to spend a ton of money retrofitting it.

Chad Griffiths

www.industrialize.com

www.youtube.com/@industrialize

Next Episode

Navigating the Current Economy and Commercial Real Estate Market: Expert Insights

What is the current state of the economy and real estate market? What are the opportunities and challenges in the commercial real estate market? Michael Ryan, an investor and loan broker with over 23 years of experience, shares his knowledge.

Read this episode here: https://tinyurl.com/49eua957

Based on all of your readings so far, what is happening right now?

The two fundamentals for generating wealth in the US have not changed, it's either small business or real estate. The economy goes up and down. We are having a recession right now, I purchased more properties at the peak of markets, knowing the markets were going to roll over and go down. It isn't because I wanted to, it's because as an independent contractor in the mortgage business, my income is best at market peaks, and it tanks in the downturns which are the best times to buy. My tax returns don't support it, so I have to figure out how to generate wealth through real estate, and buy at market peaks, knowing that I am doing exactly that.

Real estate is the slowest and the most boring path to wealth, but if you hang on to something for 20 years, the value is going to be up. We see the same thing with the equities market, the stock markets, spin the wheel of fortune, pick a date, and roll 20 years forward. I've property outside of Tampa, and they're talking about Tampa residential real estate stinks now due to over building, people moving to Florida seem to be slowing down, that's the headline. When you're coming off of five years of massive growth, does it make sense to have a little cooling period? Apartment buildings, after massive growth, does it make sense for the market to pull back a little bit? Does that mean that apartments are a bad investment? After Phoenix goes up 25% a year for four years, do you want to buy in Phoenix? Maybe not in year five but does that mean you're going to ignore Phoenix for the next 37 years?

As far as a recession, I've always been in the "easy landing camp", because of other aspects going on. The job market is holding up because until the job market tanks, which is a trailing indicator, we're not hitting it. The bigger challenge we're having is the two, or three years of overcooked inflation, that's what everybody's fighting right now.

Looking into the next two years, what do you think people should be doing right now about commercial real estate investing?

What an incredible time to buy! When I'm talking with people, if you're a Democrat, I'm going to play a Republican and if you're Republican, I'm going to play a Democrat. The purpose is, you don't need Yes folks around you. You need people who are going to work to broaden your thought process, challenge it and you get to sleep on it. Then, come back and tell me what you want to do, and we will execute.

Before the Fed meeting, when they lowered the rates, I put in my residential newsletter that the best time to buy was 90 days ago. When the interest rates were hitting 8% was the absolute best time to buy residential real estate in California. You had no competition, and the sellers were scared to death, so you were able to negotiate lower prices. We're in Prop 13, and lower prices mean lower taxes forever. And when the interest rates drop, we know what to do then. Now that the interest rates have gone back up, the commercial real estate cap rates are up. "Why is that happening?" Because now they're not expecting the Fed to be continuing half-percent cuts because the news is out that maybe the economy isn't as stinky as mainstream media would like to talk about. Go back historically and you start pulling cap rates to get a perspective.

Michael Ryan

[email protected]