The Power of Negative Thinking: With Guests Annie Duke, Mike Richard & Kelvin Wu
10/25/21 • 31 min
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Anticipating and planning for obstacles can sometimes be more powerful than adopting a positive mindset.
A positive attitude is important when embarking on any new endeavor. However, as you may have heard in previous episodes of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, overoptimism also can blind you to important information.
In this episode, we look at a strategy that can help counteract the effects of overoptimism and overconfidence. You could call it the power of negative thinking.
We begin with the amazing story of a lake in Louisiana that completely disappeared in a matter of hours. An oil drilling accident in 1980 created a giant sinkhole in Lake Peigneur that rapidly drained massive amounts of water into an active salt mine, swallowing several boats and barges and large chunks of land in the process. The event was catastrophic, but no lives were lost, thanks in part to robust emergency planning.
You’ll hear first-hand accounts of the dramatic event from Michael Richard, Sr., whose family owns and operates a garden and a nursery on the shores of Lake Peigneur, and from Dr. Kelvin Wu, who describes the scene in the salt mine as the disaster unfolded.
Dr. Kelvin Wu is a retired mining engineer and former chief of the Mine Waste & Geotechnical Engineering Division at the Mine Safety and Health Administration.
Michael Richard, Sr., owns and runs Rip Van Winkle Gardens and Live Oak Gardens on Lake Peigneur, Louisiana.
Emergency planning played an important role in the outcome of this disaster. But planning for the worst needn’t be limited to life and death scenarios.
Annie Duke joins Katy to argue that negative thinking—imagining failure in order to manage or prevent it— can actually help improve the odds of success when planning anything from a product launch to a birthday party. She argues that people shy away from negative thinking because it can feel unpleasant. But if you push through that unpleasantness, negative thinking can motivate you to take positive preemptive steps.
Annie Duke is an author and decision strategist. You can read more about negative thinking in her book How to Decide.
Finally, Katy differentiates negative thinking from pessimistic thinking. While pessimistic thinking can drain motivation and prevent you from setting goals, negative thinking can help you identify certain problems before they arise and raise your chances of success.
Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit schwab.com/podcast.
If you enjoy the show, please leave a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ rating or review on Apple Podcasts.
Important Disclosures
All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.
The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.
Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.
The book, How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be, is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content.
Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.
Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.
Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.
(1021-1UD8)
Anticipating and planning for obstacles can sometimes be more powerful than adopting a positive mindset.
A positive attitude is important when embarking on any new endeavor. However, as you may have heard in previous episodes of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, overoptimism also can blind you to important information.
In this episode, we look at a strategy that can help counteract the effects of overoptimism and overconfidence. You could call it the power of negative thinking.
We begin with the amazing story of a lake in Louisiana that completely disappeared in a matter of hours. An oil drilling accident in 1980 created a giant sinkhole in Lake Peigneur that rapidly drained massive amounts of water into an active salt mine, swallowing several boats and barges and large chunks of land in the process. The event was catastrophic, but no lives were lost, thanks in part to robust emergency planning.
You’ll hear first-hand accounts of the dramatic event from Michael Richard, Sr., whose family owns and operates a garden and a nursery on the shores of Lake Peigneur, and from Dr. Kelvin Wu, who describes the scene in the salt mine as the disaster unfolded.
Dr. Kelvin Wu is a retired mining engineer and former chief of the Mine Waste & Geotechnical Engineering Division at the Mine Safety and Health Administration.
Michael Richard, Sr., owns and runs Rip Van Winkle Gardens and Live Oak Gardens on Lake Peigneur, Louisiana.
Emergency planning played an important role in the outcome of this disaster. But planning for the worst needn’t be limited to life and death scenarios.
Annie Duke joins Katy to argue that negative thinking—imagining failure in order to manage or prevent it— can actually help improve the odds of success when planning anything from a product launch to a birthday party. She argues that people shy away from negative thinking because it can feel unpleasant. But if you push through that unpleasantness, negative thinking can motivate you to take positive preemptive steps.
Annie Duke is an author and decision strategist. You can read more about negative thinking in her book How to Decide.
Finally, Katy differentiates negative thinking from pessimistic thinking. While pessimistic thinking can drain motivation and prevent you from setting goals, negative thinking can help you identify certain problems before they arise and raise your chances of success.
Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit schwab.com/podcast.
If you enjoy the show, please leave a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ rating or review on Apple Podcasts.
Important Disclosures
All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.
The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.
Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.
The book, How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be, is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content.
Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.
Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.
Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.
(1021-1UD8)
Previous Episode
The Good Fight: With Guests Adam Grant & Tom Crouch
Most of us would prefer to avoid an argument at work or at home. But there are times when arguments—at least when they’re civil—can help surface important information for decision-making.
In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we look at situations where certain types of conflict can actually lead to better outcomes.
You’re probably familiar with the story of Orville and Wilbur Wright. The Wright brothers secured their place in history by achieving the world’s first sustained flight of a powered, heavier-than-air aircraft at Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, in December of 1903. Less well known is the fact that the brothers would often argue intensely with each other over their engineering ideas.
Tom Crouch reveals the family culture of argument and debate inside the Wright home as the brothers were growing up, and he explains how that argumentative streak may have helped them solve a key problem in their quest for powered flight.
Tom D. Crouch is curator emeritus of the Smithsonian Institution and the author of The Bishop’s Boys: A Lifeof Wilbur and Orville Wright.
A version of the Wright Brothers story appears in Adam Grant’s new book, Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don’t Know. Adam joins Katy to discuss how you can leverage constructive conflict to arrive at better decisions. He also explains how agreeableness can sometimes hold you back.
Adam Grant is the Saul P. Steinberg Professor of Management at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He’s also host of the popular TED podcast WorkLife.
Finally, Katy provides advice on how to find the right level of task conflict in order to maximize the creativity and innovation that comes from collaborative problem solving.
Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit schwab.com/podcast.
If you enjoy the show, please leave a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ rating or review on Apple Podcasts.
Important Disclosures
All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.
The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.
Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.
The book How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content.
(1021-1WX2)
Next Episode
A Clean Slate: With Guests John Beshears, Richard Thaler & Ray Zahab (Rebroadcast)
For many people, the start of a new year is an occasion to re-examine their lives, to set new goals and to give up old habits. Making New Year’s resolutions is something of a social ritual, but we see similar behaviors around other significant dates, as well--such as birthdays and anniversaries and the changing of seasons. And while it can be argued that all of these dates are arbitrary, studies show that they can still give you a head start in achieving your goals.
In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we examine the common but not always rational phenomenon whereby people divide their lives into chapters. We look at ways to leverage this phenomenon to make better choices.
The episode begins on a riverbank, with a religious rite symbolizing rebirth and renewal.
Next, we hear about Ray Zahab’s life changing New Year’s resolution. What began as a simple plan to live a healthier lifestyle ended up taking him on incredible adventures all around the world. Ray is the author of the book Running For My Life.
From Ray’s story of personal transformation around an auspicious date, we pivot to a related tendency for people to separate their money into mental accounts. Money, like time, is fungible--one dollar is as useful as any other dollar--and yet people often divide their money into different categories. Why?
Nobel laureate and best-selling author Richard Thaler explains the value of this cognitive bias and explores some of the peculiar behaviors people exhibit when they earmark their money for different purposes. And John Beshears of the Harvard Business School describes a study that exposes this bias in the way people perceive the value of grocery store coupons.
Finally, Katy Milkman offers additional tips on leveraging these temporal landmarks and personal budgets to help you stick with your resolutions.
Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit schwab.com/podcast.
If you enjoy the show, please leave a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ rating or review on Apple Podcasts.
Important Disclosures:
All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.
The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.
Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.
(0122-10M4)
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