Not by a Long Shot: With Guests Katia Jordan & Craig Fox

08/29/22 • 33 min

1 Listener

Humans can easily distinguish between a zero-chance event (e.g., the Washington Nationals winning the World Series in 2022) and a sure thing (e.g., the sun coming up tomorrow). But in between those two clear outcomes, it turns out that we’re not great at estimating odds.

In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, a bias that affects the way we predict the likelihood of rare events.

Katia Jordan had all the makings of a tennis star: a preternatural talent, an intense drive to succeed, top-tier coaches, and parents who supported her dream completely. She was certain that she would be the next Venus Williams. But along the way, she discovered that her path to tennis glory was not as straight as she imagined.

Katia Jordan is a former Division 1 tennis player and is currently script coordinator on the television program All American Homecoming.

Next, Katy speaks with UCLA psychology professor Craig Fox about how we tend to overweight the likelihood of small probabilities. Building on seminal work by his mentor Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, Dr. Fox explains a bias in the way we imagine the odds of rare events and demonstrates approaches gleaned from his research that can help us better avoid distortions in the way we conceptualize risk and reward.

Craig Fox is the Harold Williams Chair and Professor of Management at the UCLA Anderson School of Management.

Finally, Katy gives examples of the areas in your life where you can save money, improve health, and avoid some anxiety by better understanding the true likelihood of rare events.

Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit schwab.com/podcast.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.

All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

The book How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content.

Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.

Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.

Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.

(0822-2CTA)

In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, a bias that affects the way we predict the likelihood of rare events.

Katia Jordan is a former Division 1 tennis player and is currently script coordinator on the television program All American Homecoming.

Craig Fox is the Harold Williams Chair and Professor of Management at the UCLA Anderson School of Management.

Finally, Katy gives examples of the areas in your life where you can save money, improve health, and avoid some anxiety by better understanding the true likelihood of rare events.

Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit schwab.com/podcast.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.

All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.

Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.

Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.

(0822-2CTA)

Previous Episode

Fail Better: With Guests Joseph Herscher & Lauren Eskreis-Winkler

You hear it a lot in contemporary education, the tech world, and the arts: that it's important to fail, to make mistakes so that you can learn from them and get better at whatever you do. But that generally accepted wisdom is incomplete.

In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we look at how failure can cloud your ability to learn and to improve.

Joseph Herscher is creator of the wildly successful YouTube channel Joseph's Machines. He builds intricate and whimsical contraptions that perform simple tasks in overly complicated ways. You may know them as Rube Goldberg machines. Joseph's machines take months to build—and often dozens and dozens of takes to capture on video in a single shot. That's because there are so many points of failure, it's rare for these elaborate contraptions to work perfectly.

All that to say, Joseph Herscher is no stranger to failure. But his work illustrates a positive approach to a negative experience. Annoying as it can be, failure is a good way to gather useful information.

You'll hear the story of one machine that nearly didn't work at all, because of an uncooperative baby. But, in the end, Joseph's Cake Server was a huge success, garnering millions of views online.

Next, Katy speaks with Lauren Eskreis-Winkler about her research with Ayelet Fishbach on how we tend to ignore some or all of the information in failure, in part because failure is uncomfortable and ego-threatening.

You can read more in the paper "Not Learning From Failure—the Greatest Failure of All."

Lauren Eskreis-Winkler is an assistant professor of management and organization at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University.

Finally, Katy gives you advice on how to better share critical feedback, and how to limit the ego-threatening aspects of failure by adopting a growth mindset.

Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit schwab.com/podcast.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Disclosures

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.

Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.

Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.

(0822-2ERJ)

Next Episode

How You Spend It: With Guests Joshua Fields Millburn & Cassie Mogilner Holmes

“Life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.” A quintessentially American phrase from the Declaration of Independence. That “pursuit of happiness” takes many forms, but it turns out that some approaches are more likely to be successful, according to science.

In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we look at a way to frame how you spend your time and money that may help you lead a happier life.

Joshua Fields Millburn was hungry for success. Despite a difficult childhood, he was determined to make it big. He worked long hours, took little time off, and rapidly climbed the corporate ladder in his hometown of Dayton, Ohio. By his mid-twenties, he had worked his way to a director position at a telecommunications company and was leading a very prosperous lifestyle. But his workaholism had taken a toll. By 28, his marriage had failed, his mother had died, and Joshua was at a crossroads.

You’ll hear how he was forced to take stock of what was most important—and how he shifted his priorities in a way that changed his life for the better.

Joshua Fields Millburn in one half of the simple living duo the Minimalists.

Next, Katy speaks with Cassie Mogilner Holmes about her research on time and happiness and how prioritizing quality time over money and material wealth can have lasting positive effects. She's the author of the new book Happier Hour: How to Beat Distraction, Expand Your Time, and Focus on What Matters Most.

Cassie Mogilner Holmes is a professor of marketing and behavioral decision making at the UCLA Anderson School of Management.

Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit schwab.com/podcast.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

(0922-2WNE)