ChinaPower

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Mr. Ivan Kanapathy joins us to discuss what Donald Trump’s second administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy may look like and the ways in which Trump redefined the U.S. relationship with China during his first term. Mr. Kanapathy shares that a second Trump administration will likely show high continuity from his first and speaks to how Trump will have to deal with a more aggressive China this time around but that many of the measures the Trump administration put in place during his first term have served to weaken China throughout the last few years. Mr. Kanapathy provides his assessment that the Trump administration will likely maintain many of the same objectives from the Biden administration, specifically in prioritizing U.S. security and prosperity as well as maintaining strong relationships with our allies and partners. However, he shares that Trump will likely place a larger emphasis on reducing freeriders and on leveling the planning field through increased burden sharing. Mr. Kanapathy shares his thoughts on Trump’s proposed economic policies towards the region and his view that Trump’s tariffs on China during his first administration were highly successful in diversifying U.S. imports and making goods from allies and partners, rather than China, more attractive. He explains his view that the U.S. needs clearer leadership and a more concrete strategy towards China that includes a model of deterrence without assurances. Finally, Mr. Kanapathy explains that the next administration should seek positive sum competition with China, rather than cooperation, and explains that rather than mil to mil cooperation, leader level meetings will be more effective.

Ivan Kanapathy is a senior vice president with Beacon Global Strategies. From March 2018 to July 2021, he served on the White House’s National Security Council staff as director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia and deputy senior director for Asian affairs. From 2014 to 2017, Ivan worked at the American Institute in Taiwan, representing U.S. interests and advising on military and security issues in Taipei. Earlier in his career, Ivan spent a year studying in Beijing and traveling throughout China, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia as a U.S. Marine Corps foreign area study fellow; he later led the development and implementation of the service’s global security cooperation strategy and policies at the Pentagon. As a naval flight officer, Ivan accumulated 2,500 flight hours, served three years as a F/A-18 weapons officer and tactics instructor at the U.S Navy Fighter Weapons School (better known as TOPGUN), and deployed to the Middle East and Western Pacific five times, earning several combat awards and decorations. He holds a MA (with distinction) in East Asia security studies from the Naval Postgraduate School, a BS in physics and economics from Carnegie Mellon University, and an AA and diploma (with highest honors) in Chinese – Mandarin from the Defense Language Institute.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Mr. Jon Czin joins us to discuss domestic dynamics and leadership decisionmaking within the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC). Mr. Czin discusses what is currently missing in the conversation within the United States on Chinese politics and the fact that many analysts failed to predict the scope and concentration of power that President Xi Jinping would be able to garner. He describes his humanistic approach to studying decisionmaking by Chinese leadership, attempting to look at issues through the eyes of Xi Jinping and the context within China in which Xi makes these decisions. Mr. Czin discusses his impression of Xi Jinping and both how and why he is vastly different from his predecessors, using Xi’s unique past as a primary reason for his style of leadership. He speaks to Xi’s focus on domestic and party issues, such as widespread corruption, and discusses what he sees as the limited connection that exists currently between China’s internal dynamics and its foreign policy. Mr. Czin shares his assessment that China has arrived as a defining force in the geopolitical environment and in 10 to 20 years China will continue to have the capacity and the will to be a formidable rival to the United States. Finally, he discusses what he sees as China’s view of the United State’s internal dynamics and the upcoming presidential election.

Mr. Jonathan A. Czin is the Michael H. Armacost Chair in Foreign Policy Studies at Brookings Institution and a fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center. He is a former member of the Senior Analytic Service at CIA, where he was one of the intelligence community’s top China experts. Jon led the intelligence community’s analysis of Chinese politics and policymaking, playing a central role in assessing and briefing senior policymakers on President Xi Jinping, his rise to power, and decisionmaking on an array of key issues and crises. From 2021 till 2023, he was director for China at the National Security Council, where he advised on, staffed, and coordinated White House and inter-agency diplomacy with the People’s Republic of China, including all of President Biden’s interactions with President Xi, and played a leading role in addressing a wide range of global China issues. He also served as advisor for Asia-Pacific security affairs in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and overseas at a CIA field station in Southeast Asia. He holds a master’s in international relations from Yale University, graduated magna cum laude from Haverford College, and studied at Oxford University. He is proficient in Mandarin Chinese.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, we are joined by Dr. Dawn Murphy to discuss China’s engagement with the global south, particularly the Middle East. Murphy lays out drivers of China’s engagement with the Middle East, which includes securing access to resources and markets and obtaining support for PRC policies. At the same time, China is building an alternative order in the Middle East, deepening relations with regional actors across the board. She argues that Beijing’s approach towards the Israel-Hamas conflict is consistent with its prior positions on tensions in the region. She explains that despite China’s growing influence in the region, it is not clear Beijing believes it can or should do more to end the Israel-Hamas conflict aside from facilitating dialogue among regional stakeholders. Beijing is unlikely to use its leverage to pressure Iran or other actors. Finally, she notes that China benefits from a stable and peaceful Middle East and there is potential for the United States and China to find common ground. Washington should understand the limits of Beijing’s willingness to become involved.

Dr. Dawn Murphy is the author of the book “China’s Rise in the Global South: The Middle East, Africa, and Beijing’s Alternative World Order.” Dr. Murphy is an associate professor of National Security Strategy at the U.S. National War College. She specializes in Chinese foreign policy and domestic politics and U.S.-China relations. Her research analyzes China’s interests as a rising global power and its behavior towards the existing international order.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Steve Tsang joins us to discuss his new book The Political Thought of Xi Jinping, coauthored with Dr. Olivia Cheung. Dr. Tsang explains that Xi Jinping thought is vastly different from the thought and practices of his predecessors, such as Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. Core to Xi Jinping thought is the desire to achieve China’s national rejuvenation and the embracement of the “Tian Xia” concept of Chinese hegemony. Dr. Tsang points out that Xi seeks to position China in a more prominent role on the world stage. Dr. Tsang highlights that through Xi’s efforts to centralize the Communist Party under his control and to create an alternative to the US-led international order, Xi aims to reshape policy both within China and abroad. Finally, Dr. Tsang shares his thoughts on how best to deter Xi Jinping.

Dr. Steve Tsang is Professor of China Studies and Director of the China Institute, SOAS, London. He is also a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences and an Emeritus Fellow of St Antony’s College at Oxford. He previously served as the Head of the School of Contemporary Chinese Studies and as Director of the China Policy Institute at the University of Nottingham. Before that he spent 29 years at Oxford University, where he earned his D.Phil. and worked as a Professorial Fellow, Dean, and Director of the Asian Studies Centre at St Antony’s College.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Mr. Elbridge Colby joins us to discuss U.S. strategic competition with China. Mr. Colby stresses that he is most worried about the PRC military threat. He advocates focusing on Taiwan as a principal flashpoint and says the United States should “speak softly and carry a big stick” by equipping allies for military deterrence rather than focusing exclusively on economic deterrence. Colby further discusses the Biden administration’s approach, emphasizing that the United States should focus more carefully on not appearing to contain China. He also shares that there is consensus among Republicans that China is a central challenge to the United States but there are debates within the party as to how much the U.S. should focus on China. He concludes by advocating for a shift towards prioritizing the PRC, both in terms of force planning and relationships with allies in the region.

Elbridge A. Colby is the founder of the Marathon Initiative, a nonprofit that focuses on American preparedness for great power competition. He is also former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Strategy and Force Development at the Department of Defense during the Trump administration and was the co-lead for the development of the 2018 National Defense Strategy. An expert on the challenges of strategic competition, Colby is also the author of The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict. This podcast was recorded on January 10, 2024.