Trump’s Indo-Pacific Strategy: A Conversation with Mr. Ivan Kanapathy

11/22/24 • 42 min

1 Listener

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Mr. Ivan Kanapathy joins us to discuss what Donald Trump’s second administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy may look like and the ways in which Trump redefined the U.S. relationship with China during his first term. Mr. Kanapathy shares that a second Trump administration will likely show high continuity from his first and speaks to how Trump will have to deal with a more aggressive China this time around but that many of the measures the Trump administration put in place during his first term have served to weaken China throughout the last few years. Mr. Kanapathy provides his assessment that the Trump administration will likely maintain many of the same objectives from the Biden administration, specifically in prioritizing U.S. security and prosperity as well as maintaining strong relationships with our allies and partners. However, he shares that Trump will likely place a larger emphasis on reducing freeriders and on leveling the planning field through increased burden sharing. Mr. Kanapathy shares his thoughts on Trump’s proposed economic policies towards the region and his view that Trump’s tariffs on China during his first administration were highly successful in diversifying U.S. imports and making goods from allies and partners, rather than China, more attractive. He explains his view that the U.S. needs clearer leadership and a more concrete strategy towards China that includes a model of deterrence without assurances. Finally, Mr. Kanapathy explains that the next administration should seek positive sum competition with China, rather than cooperation, and explains that rather than mil to mil cooperation, leader level meetings will be more effective.

Ivan Kanapathy is a senior vice president with Beacon Global Strategies. From March 2018 to July 2021, he served on the White House’s National Security Council staff as director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia and deputy senior director for Asian affairs. From 2014 to 2017, Ivan worked at the American Institute in Taiwan, representing U.S. interests and advising on military and security issues in Taipei. Earlier in his career, Ivan spent a year studying in Beijing and traveling throughout China, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia as a U.S. Marine Corps foreign area study fellow; he later led the development and implementation of the service’s global security cooperation strategy and policies at the Pentagon. As a naval flight officer, Ivan accumulated 2,500 flight hours, served three years as a F/A-18 weapons officer and tactics instructor at the U.S Navy Fighter Weapons School (better known as TOPGUN), and deployed to the Middle East and Western Pacific five times, earning several combat awards and decorations. He holds a MA (with distinction) in East Asia security studies from the Naval Postgraduate School, a BS in physics and economics from Carnegie Mellon University, and an AA and diploma (with highest honors) in Chinese – Mandarin from the Defense Language Institute.

Previous Episode

How China Might View a Second Trump Administration: A Conversation with Mr. Rick Waters

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Mr. Rick Waters joins us to discuss what the recent U.S. presidential election results mean for China. Mr. Waters shares that China viewed President Trump’s first term as largely divided into two different phases, a more transactional phase in the first half of the administration and a second phase shaped by U.S. anger at China over Covid-19. Mr. Waters also explains that during the recent U.S. presidential election, Chinese scholars did not see large strategic differences between the Trump and Harris campaigns regarding China, and instead saw the differences as mainly tactical. Similarly, he speaks to China’s view that changes in which party controls the U.S. Congress will not cause significant changes in the overall U.S. trajectory on China, as both U.S. parties are increasingly concerned about the challenges and threats China poses. However, he notes Beijing may be concerned that a Republican dominated House and Senate may lead to the end of Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) with China. Mr. Waters also speaks to how China may approach the new Trump administration and assesses that China is waiting to see the first moves from the United States and whether those signal that Trump is willing to bargain with Xi or if the United States will take a greater turn towards unilateral decoupling. Finally, Mr. Waters speaks to possibility of NATO expanding into the Indo-Pacific and the growing ties between Pyongyang and Moscow, and what these changing geopolitics will mean for the future of the US-China relationship.

Rick Waters is the managing director of Eurasia Group's China practice. Drawing on his decades of experience in the US foreign service, Rick leads the firm's China expertise and client offerings. His research interests include China's global and regional diplomacy, US-China relations, and China's domestic political economy. Rick joined Eurasia Group after a 27-year career as the US State Department's top China policy official, overseeing the creation of the Office of China Coordination, informally known as the China House, and concurrently serving as deputy assistant secretary of state for China and Taiwan. Rick also held multiple roles at the US embassy in Beijing—including during the period between the accidental US bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999 and the Hainan Island incident in 2001.

Next Episode

China’s Relations with Latin America: A Conversation with Dr. Ryan Berg

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Ryan Berg joins us to discuss China’s relations with Latin America. Dr. Berg discusses both Chinese and U.S. interests in the region, emphasizing that while the U.S. has tended to approach the region with “strategic neglect,” China seems to view Latin America as highly important in terms of both its strategic and economic goals. Dr. Berg explains his view that President Xi is personally invested in the region and believes it holds high economic complementarity to the Chinese economy, specifically in relation to China’s Belt and Road Imitative (BRI). Dr. Berg notes that although the U.S. is still the preferred security partner among Latin American countries, China is becoming more competitive in this space and is viewed among many countries as providing more opportunities, specifically in the economic realm. Dr. Berg also discusses the public opinion of China in Latin America, noting that China’s image has not fully recovered since its decline during COVID-19, and describes the U.S. efforts to not only warn Latin American countries of the risks of investment and economic deals with China but also the US attempt to compete with China as the preferred economic partner. Dr. Berg provides insights on President Xi’s most recent trip to the region for the APEC Leader’s Summit, specifically discussing his inauguration of a new massive port in Peru, and other ways Xi seemed to overshadow President Biden. Finally, Dr. Berg discusses some of the concerns surrounding China’s growing presence in the region and suggestions for U.S. policymakers.

Dr. Ryan C. Berg is director of the Americas Program and head of the Future of Venezuela Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He is also an adjunct professor at the Catholic University of America and a course coordinator at the United States Foreign Service Institute. His research focuses on U.S.-Latin America relations, strategic competition and defense policy, authoritarian regimes, armed conflict and transnational organized crime, and trade and development issues. Previously, Dr. Berg was a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he helped lead its Latin America Studies Program, as well as visiting research fellow at the University of Oxford’s Changing Character of War Programme. Dr. Berg was a Fulbright scholar in Brazil and is a Council on Foreign Relations Term Member.