China Global

In the past decade, policy toward China has hardened on both sides of the Atlantic. Governments and publics across Europe and in the United States view Xi Jinping as implementing more repressive policies domestically and more aggressive policies abroad. The US and most capitals in Europe see Beijing as seeking to revise the international order in ways that would be disadvantageous to democracies. They agree on the need for de-risking and to preserve the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.

Yet, despite the alignment in transatlantic assessments, cooperation on China remains limited. A new paper by experts from Chatham House and RUSI, leading think tanks in the United Kingdom, analyzes why transatlantic mechanisms have made slow progress, focusing on three domains: economics; security; and the multilateral system and global norms. The paper also offers ways to strengthen cooperation going forward.

The title of the report is “Transatlantic China Policy: In Search of an Endgame?” Host Bonnie Glaser is joined by one of its authors, Ben Bland who is the director of the Asia-Pacific program at Chatham House. His research focuses on the nexus of politics, economics, and international relations in Southeast Asia, as well as China’s growing role in the broader region and the contours of US–China strategic competition.

Timestamps

[01:46] Why did you pursue this research on transatlantic mechanism?

[03:24] Importance of Agreeing on an Endgame

[06:30] Consensus and Divergence between the US and Europe

[10:10] De-risking: One Word, Many Meanings

[15:00] Transatlantic Discussions on European and Indo-Pacific Security

[18:40] Can a regional division of labor strategy work?

[22:13] China, the Multilateral System, and Global Norms

[27:00] Tensions Between EU Multilateralism and Transatlantic Consensus

[31:10] What are the next steps for Chatham House?

[01:50] Switzerland’s Policy toward China Today

[03:48] Changes in Swiss-Chinese Relations

[06:03] Switzerland’s 2021 China Strategy

[08:17] Areas of Economic Cooperation

[11:05] Switzerland’s Relationship with Taiwan

[14:45] Switzerland’s One China Policy

[17:32] Contending with Human Rights Issues

[18:55] Huawei’s Presence in Switzerland

[20:56] China’s Influence in Switzerland

[23:42] Forecast of Swiss-Chinese Relations

Relations between the United States and China have slid to their lowest point since the 1970s. After President Biden and Xi Jinping met in November 2022, they instructed their senior officials to initiate a process to stabilize the relationship. Before much headway could be made, however, China sent a surveillance balloon to the west coast of the United States that ended up loitering over sensitive military sites and then flew across the entire country before being shot down by the US. Secretary of State Blinken postponed his planned visit to China. Acrimony and distrust spiked.

Several months later, the US and China decided to try again. Blinken visited Beijing from June 18-19, and had meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping, CCP Central Foreign Affairs Office Director Wang Yi, and State Councilor and Foreign Minister Qin Gang. What is the trajectory of the bilateral relationship after the visit? Is it possible to stabilize ties and resume dialogue mechanisms and some forms of cooperation, or is further deterioration of relations more likely?

To discuss these issues, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Dr. Evan Medeiros, the Penner Family Chair in Asia Studies in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, and the Cling Family Distinguished Fellow in U.S.-China Studies. During the Obama administration, Evan served for six years on the National Security Council as Director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia.

Timestamps

[01:45] US-China Relations at this Juncture

[05:10] Deterioration of US-China Relations

[08:30] Analysis of Secretary Blinken’s Visit

[10:40] Principles Guiding US-China Relations

[13:16] Is agreement on principles a precondition for progress?

[13:48] Is the US-China relationship dominated by competition?

[16:45] Top-Down Pressure to Deny Competition

[18:30] Displacing the United States

[19:50] Where Blinken’s Visit Fell Short

[22:48] Putting a Floor Under the Relationship

[24:46] Interpreting Evolving Sino-Russian Relations

[28:15] China’s Initial Reaction to the War in Ukraine

[29:24] Forecast for US-China Relations

[31:57] Incentives for Stability

Summary

A new Foreign Relations Law took effect in China on July 1, 2023 that formalizes Chinese Communist Party leadership in all foreign policy matters. It puts China’s security and development interests and global rise at the center of its engagement with the world. The new law has been widely interpreted as providing a legal basis for Beijing’s struggle against what it says is a strategy of containment by the United States and its allies, and against foreign interference and sanctions, as well as what is calls America’s “long-arm jurisdiction.”

To discuss the Foreign Relations Law, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Dr. Moritz Rudolf, a Research Scholar in Law and Fellow at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center, where he focuses on the implications of China’s rise for the international legal order.

Timestamps

[01:15] Impetus for the Foreign Relations Law

[02:47] Centralized and Unified Leadership of Foreign Relations

[04:27] China and Reforming the International Order

[09:20] How might China use the foreign relations law?

[11:03] Insurance Against International Courts

[12:31] Targeting a Domestic Audience

[15:10] Expected Policy Changes in China

[17:30] Applicability of the Law in Cross-Strait Relations

[21:57] Forecasting Chinese Use of Lawfare

Critical minerals are non-fuel minerals or mineral materials essential to the economic or national security of the U.S. They have no viable substitutes yet face a high risk of supply chain disruption. Critical minerals are used for many different purposes, including the production of advanced electronics, weapons systems, manufacturing equipment, and cutting-edge medical devices. They are indispensable for the transition to low-carbon energy sources. Last year, the U.S. Secretary of the Interior, with the aid of the U.S. Geological Survey, published a list of 50 critical minerals.

China dominates global critical mineral supply chains, accounting for approximately 60% of world-wide production and 85% of processing capacity. However, the U.S. and several European countries are taking steps to build out their own ability to mine, process, and manufacture critical minerals. To discuss the implications of China’s role in critical mineral supply chains and the responses of the U.S. and its partners, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Abigail Wulf, vice president and director of the Ambassador Alfred Hoffman Jr. Center for Critical Minerals Strategy at Securing America’s Future Energy (SAFE), a non-profit advancing transformative transportation technology to enhance energy security.

Time Stamps

[01:51] Vulnerabilities and Risks of Overdependence

[07:07] Development of a Domestic Mining Industry

[12:42] Environmental Hazards of Processing Raw Minerals

[18:30] Impact of Export Controls on Gallium and Germanium

[22:53] Diversifying Sources of Rare Earth Imports

[26:38] The Critical Raw Materials Act

[29:58] The Mineral Security Partnership