Monte Carlo Simulations: Is Your “Probability of Success” Trustworthy?
09/30/24 • 38 min
2 Listeners
In this episode, we take a closer look at Monte Carlo simulations—a tool used in retirement planning to estimate your chances of success. But are those percentages really reliable? Can an 85% or 90% success rate give you confidence in your retirement plan? We’ll explain how these simulations work, how different assumptions can lead to very different results, and why you shouldn’t just rely on past returns.
If you’re thinking, "I love the Big Picture Retirement podcast!” please consider rating and reviewing this show! This helps us support more people -- just like you -- move toward a confident retirement. Just scroll down to the “ratings and reviews” section, tap to rate with five stars, and select “Write a Review.” Then be sure to let us know what you loved most about the episode!
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Don’t miss the Big Picture Retirement Planning Cheat Sheet. We've distilled the essential brackets, thresholds, and rules of retirement into an easy-to-digest, three-page summary. https://www.carrolladvisory.com/pl/2148282517
Want to ask Devin or John your question? Just visit https://www.bigpictureretirement.com/ and click on the “Ask A Question” menu selection.
Although this show does not provide specific tax, legal, or financial advice, you can engage Devin or John through their individual firms.
Contact Devin’s team at https://carrolladvisory.co/podcast1
Contact John’s team at https://www.rossandshoalmire.com/
In this episode, we take a closer look at Monte Carlo simulations—a tool used in retirement planning to estimate your chances of success. But are those percentages really reliable? Can an 85% or 90% success rate give you confidence in your retirement plan? We’ll explain how these simulations work, how different assumptions can lead to very different results, and why you shouldn’t just rely on past returns.
If you’re thinking, "I love the Big Picture Retirement podcast!” please consider rating and reviewing this show! This helps us support more people -- just like you -- move toward a confident retirement. Just scroll down to the “ratings and reviews” section, tap to rate with five stars, and select “Write a Review.” Then be sure to let us know what you loved most about the episode!
Also, if you haven’t done so already, follow the podcast. We add new content every week, and if you’re not following, you’ll likely miss out. Follow now!
Don’t miss the Big Picture Retirement Planning Cheat Sheet. We've distilled the essential brackets, thresholds, and rules of retirement into an easy-to-digest, three-page summary. https://www.carrolladvisory.com/pl/2148282517
Want to ask Devin or John your question? Just visit https://www.bigpictureretirement.com/ and click on the “Ask A Question” menu selection.
Although this show does not provide specific tax, legal, or financial advice, you can engage Devin or John through their individual firms.
Contact Devin’s team at https://carrolladvisory.co/podcast1
Contact John’s team at https://www.rossandshoalmire.com/
Previous Episode
The Stock Market Gamble Most Investors Lose
In this episode, we explore the realities of stock-picking, revealing that it’s a gamble where the odds are heavily stacked against the average investor. Studies show that most individual stocks underperform or lose value over time, so we make a strong case for the smarter and more reliable approach.
If you’re thinking, "I love the Big Picture Retirement podcast!” please consider rating and reviewing this show! This helps us support more people -- just like you -- move toward a confident retirement. Just scroll down to the “ratings and reviews” section, tap to rate with five stars, and select “Write a Review.” Then be sure to let us know what you loved most about the episode!
Also, if you haven’t done so already, follow the podcast. We add new content every week, and if you’re not following, you’ll likely miss out. Follow now!
Don’t miss the Big Picture Retirement Planning Cheat Sheet. We've distilled the essential brackets, thresholds, and rules of retirement into an easy-to-digest, three-page summary. https://www.carrolladvisory.com/pl/2148282517
Want to ask Devin or John your question? Just visit https://www.bigpictureretirement.com/ and click on the “Ask A Question” menu selection.
Although this show does not provide specific tax, legal, or financial advice, you can engage Devin or John through their individual firms.
Contact Devin’s team at https://carrolladvisory.co/podcast1
Contact John’s team at https://www.rossandshoalmire.com/
Next Episode
3 Ways to Pay for Long-Term Care
Long-term care is a reality that many retirees will face, but the question is—how will you pay for it? In this episode, we break down the three primary ways to cover long-term care expenses. We’ll walk you through the pros and cons of each option and explain why planning ahead is critical. Plus, we’ll introduce a tool that can help you estimate the actual costs of care in your area. Whether you’re planning for yourself or a loved one, this episode will give you the insights you need to make an informed decision about long-term care expenses.
If you’re thinking, "I love the Big Picture Retirement podcast!” please consider rating and reviewing this show! This helps us support more people -- just like you -- move toward a confident retirement. Just scroll down to the “ratings and reviews” section, tap to rate with five stars, and select “Write a Review.” Then be sure to let us know what you loved most about the episode!
Also, if you haven’t done so already, follow the podcast. We add new content every week, and if you’re not following, you’ll likely miss out. Follow now!
Don’t miss the Big Picture Retirement Planning Cheat Sheet. We've distilled the essential brackets, thresholds, and rules of retirement into an easy-to-digest, three-page summary. https://www.carrolladvisory.com/pl/2148282517
Want to ask Devin or John your question? Just visit https://www.bigpictureretirement.com/ and click on the “Ask A Question” menu selection.
Although this show does not provide specific tax, legal, or financial advice, you can engage Devin or John through their individual firms.
Contact Devin’s team at https://carrolladvisory.co/podcast1
Contact John’s team at https://www.rossandshoalmire.com/
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