Episode 156: The Government’s Rosy Outlook
02/05/20 • 30 min
The Congressional Budget Office is tasked with forecasting the federal budget. Over the past twenty years, the CBO has tended to over-estimate future tax revenues and under-estimate future government spending. The result is that CBO paints an unrealistically rosy picture of the government’s financial future. If we take CBO’s forecasts and compensate for their historically rosy biases, we find that, where the CBO predicts trillion-dollar deficits forever, the likely reality is actually worse.
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Quick hits
Europe votes for standardized phone chargers
Pledge
WV Board of Education v. Barnette
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Virginia_State_Board_of_Education_v._Barnette
Foolishness of the week
Punxsutawney Phil and PETA
Topic of the week
Latest CBO report
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2019-08/55551-CBO-outlook-update_0.pdf https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/budget-deficit-hit-1-trillion-year-cbo-200128193731479.html
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Antony Davies on Twitter
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James R. Harrigan on Twitter
The Congressional Budget Office is tasked with forecasting the federal budget. Over the past twenty years, the CBO has tended to over-estimate future tax revenues and under-estimate future government spending. The result is that CBO paints an unrealistically rosy picture of the government’s financial future. If we take CBO’s forecasts and compensate for their historically rosy biases, we find that, where the CBO predicts trillion-dollar deficits forever, the likely reality is actually worse.
Show your support for Words & Numbers at Patreon
https://www.patreon.com/wordsandnumbers
Quick hits
Europe votes for standardized phone chargers
Pledge
WV Board of Education v. Barnette
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Virginia_State_Board_of_Education_v._Barnette
Foolishness of the week
Punxsutawney Phil and PETA
Topic of the week
Latest CBO report
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2019-08/55551-CBO-outlook-update_0.pdf https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/budget-deficit-hit-1-trillion-year-cbo-200128193731479.html
Join the conversation
Words & Numbers Backstage
https://www.facebook.com/groups/130029457649243/
Let us know what you think
Antony Davies on Twitter
https://twitter.com/antonydavies
James R. Harrigan on Twitter
Previous Episode
Episode 155: David Schmidtz on Equality and Justice
When most people say, “equality,” they mean income equality. Economists draw a finer distinction between income equality and wealth equality. Political scientists draw an even finer distinction between economic equality and equality under the law. Philosophers distinguish even more finely, looking at equality of opportunity and equality of outcome, and examining how equality itself is one of several elements that comprise justice.
Show your support for Words & Numbers at Patreon
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Quick hits
Half of the world is now middle class https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2018/09/27/a-global-tipping-point-half-the-world-is-now-middle-class-or-wealthier/ 75th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/auschwitz-holocaust-muslim-jewish-pray-a9299941.html
Foolishness of the week
A “just” Connecticut
http://www.senatedems.ct.gov/looney-news/3045-looney-200122#sthash.xHba9oNB.n5oMRw3V.dpbs
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jan/24/conn-democrats-propose-new-state-police-department/
Topic of the week
David Schmidtz
https://freedomcenter.arizona.edu/david-schmidtz
Freedom Center podcast https://podcasts.apple.com/vc/podcast/freedom-center-today/id1452115977 New Yorker: The Equality Conundrum
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/01/13/the-equality-conundrum
Next Episode
Episode 157: Black Markets
Many people imagine that, when the government bans something, the banned thing goes away. In fact, what banning does is to remove government protections against violence, theft, and fraud. Justification for banning things that harm no one other than, perhaps, the person who wants those things hinges on inequality - that some of us should have the right to tell others of us how those others should live their own lives.
Show your support for Words & Numbers at Patreon
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Quick hits
Technological cure for macular degeneration https://scienceblog.com/513957/first-in-the-u-s-wireless-retinal-device-for-advanced-age-related-macular-degeneration/
Americans go to libraries more than to movies
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/americans-went-library-more-often-movies-2019-180974091/
Foolishness of the week
Trump and Pelosi’s Incivility
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/02/05/pelosis-page-ripping-was-fitting-end-impeachment/
Topic of the week
United Nations World Drug Report
https://wdr.unodc.org/wdr2019/en/index.html
Marijuana doomsday didn’t come
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Antony Davies on Twitter
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James R. Harrigan on Twitter
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